Can We Compete in 2016

[nsacpi]

I'll somewhat arbitrarily define a "competitive" team as one that projects to win at least 80 games. Teams that project to win less might look competitive for a month or two, but can't really hang in there once luck (including injury luck) evens out. This is what we had this year.

So lets do the math. We start out with 48 wins, which is what a team of replacement level players gets you. To get to 80 we need 32 WAR. How do we get there.

1) Our stars Freeman and Simmons need to be healthy and approach their normal production. I'll be slightly optimistic and say 8 WAR from those two.

2) Continuing along a slightly optimistic path, I'll project 2 WAR each from Peterson, Olivera, Markakis and Maybin. 8 WAR from this group bringing us up to 16. As I said this is slightly optimistic given none of them are going to achieve 2 WAR this season.

3) 6 WAR from Miller and Teheran. This brings our total up to 22.

4) 4 WAR from the pen and bench (including players who might start the year in the minors), bringing the total up to 26.

I am assuming replacement level performances from left, catcher and three rotation spots.

So we are about 6 short of 32 with what we currently have on the team.

We have 25-30M to spend on player acquisitions. At the going rate of about 7M per WAR on the FA market, we can realistically get 4 more WAR. This brings us up to 30.

That is a very awkward number to be at. For that kind of team, you need a significant amount of luck (from injuries, hitting with runners in scoring position, strand rate, as well as players outpeforming projections) to make the playoffs. At the same time it is not a terrible no-hope team. We could improve a little further by making some trades that in effect borrow from the future for the present or by backloading contracts. Not sure we want to do that in 2016.

[sturg33]

If we're hellbent on staying away from Heyward/upton... I don't see how we make the improvements needed to be good

[Russ2dollas]

We were young and good a couple of years ago...now Hart seems to be adding older guys who are not as good.

I think we'll add another pitcher. I still think they'll trade Tehran for a bat. I think they will run at Lucroy again.

My hope is there is some monster trade that we can win, but it's a small hope since we just had a monster trade and I hate it.

[Enscheff]

Upwards of $30M and a top 5 farm system to gain 6 additional WAR from 5 roster spots? That doesn't seem like too much to ask from a front office.

One of the rotation spots and either LF or C should easily be filled with the available funds (+4-5 WAR). A trade of some sort should be able to fill the position that wasn't addressed via FA (+1-2 WAR). One of the young pitchers should be able to step up next year and provide positive WAR (+1), while the 5th slot will likely remain a drag on the team as young guys continue to be broken in with those starts (0 WAR).

The most concerning aspect, to me at least, of building a contender by 2017 is the fact that the FA market a year from now is going to be so poor. This upcoming FA market is relatively strong, and this should have been the offseason the Braves added an impact player or two. Instead, they traded for Bourn and Swisher to save money for an offseason when there won't be anything worth buying.

[Chico]

We could be competitive, but I don't think it's the main goal. We'll acquire some players that could help us out, and if everything goes right give us a great season and a possible trip to the playoffs. If it goes south due to risks not working out, injuries, or ineffectiveness then we'll open up shop in July and continue the rebuild.

We have plenty of money to make some calculated risks and see where the cards lie afterward

[nsacpi]

Upwards of $30M and a top 5 farm system to gain 6 additional WAR from 5 roster spots? That doesn't seem like too much to ask from a front office.

One of the rotation spots and either LF or C should easily be filled with the available funds (+4-5 WAR). A trade of some sort should be able to fill the position that wasn't addressed via FA (+1-2 WAR). One of the young pitchers should be able to step up next year and provide positive WAR (+1), while the 5th slot will likely remain a drag on the team as young guys continue to be broken in with those starts (0 WAR).

Getting from a projected 78 win team to something slightly better is definitely doable. It can happen in a number of ways. Backload a contract or two. Trade from the farm system. Or win a trade. Or get more than we pay for any free agents. It is doable.

[Russ2dollas]

I don't see how we can think we'll be a player in 17 if we aren't a player in 16. Unless 17 we plan on signing some studs I don't know about or we have some guys in the minors that are going to be killers in 17 (not sure who that would be). So I think you have to work to be a good team in 16. B/c going from a team like this to WS is a tough job.

[nsacpi]

I've questioned all along this attempt to draw a sharp line between what comes before the move to the new stadium and what comes after. It isn't really possible to completely start anew. Among other things the sour taste left in the mouths of the team's paying customers from a lost season doesn't just get washed away. But also you can't completely change rosters. It just is not feasible. And the poor FA crop coming up after the 2016 season adds to the difficulty.

[The Chosen One]

Hart isn't concerned with 2016. It's ALL about the 2017 baby!

[yeezus]

yeah.

[VirginiaBrave]

Yes!!! We would still be hovering around .500 for this year had we not traded Wood, KJ, JJ, and Uribe. Freeman had not missed 1/3 of the season and Grilli not gotten hurt or traded. The team that is out there right now is just not an accurate picture of the first half of the year. It's really been two separate years and teams. For it to get better Hart must find solutions for the 6th-7th.

[sturg33]

Yes!!! We would still be hovering around .500 for this year had we not traded Wood, KJ, JJ, and Uribe. Freeman had not missed 1/3 of the season and Grilli not gotten hurt or traded. The team that is out there right now is just not an accurate picture of the first half of the year. It's really been two separate years and teams. For it to get better Hart must find solutions for the 6th-7th.

I still can't believe people are making this argument.

[VirginiaBrave]

Not an argument...it's an undisputed FACT!!!! Sturg you and others b----ed all winter about the loss of JH, JU, and EG. But somehow the loss of the six guys I mentioned doesn't matter? Just being hardheaded I guess.

[sturg33]

Not an argument...it's an undisputed FACT!!!! Sturg you and others b----ed all winter about the loss of JH, JU, and EG. But somehow the loss of the six guys I mentioned doesn't matter? Just being hardheaded I guess.

So you think keeping KJ & Uribe (who've been terrible), keeping Wood (who's been below average), Grilli, and Freeman healthy means we would have twice the amount of games we did in the last 48?

That's preposterous.

And stop whining about Freeman getting hurt. You can't build a team that can't sustain at least one injury. That's on Hart. The Cardinals have lost a ton of players and have the best record in baseball.

The Braves over performed almost across the board the in first 3 months. They were a terrible team from day one. Just like we told you they would be. Hard wanted to trade away the biggest collection of young talent that I can ever remember... fine. But don't be surprised that it set us up to compete for the worst record in baseball and nobody cares enough to even watch anymore.

[nsacpi]

The first two months of the season, we had a number of players out-performing projections, we had exceptional pinch hitting and hitting with RISP, and we had very few injuries. With everything breaking just right we managed to stay just below .500. We were not built to be a .500 team. We were a sub-.500 team catching a bunch of breaks and staying close to .500.

Ironically, we had a better team once Uribe came on board and we stopped giving significant roles to Callaspo, EYJr, Stults and Cahill. But our luck (including injuries) turned shortly after.

[BRule]

Can we compete in 2016?

No

[CrimsonCowboy]

I'll give you an answer to this question when I see the roster for 2016. Only players on the current roster who I am certain will be on the team are Freeman, Simmons, Miller, and Markakis. There's going to be another offseason in which we are going to see major roster turnover, particularity with the pitching staff.

[thewupk]

The likely answer is, no. If Hart isn't going to go after top tier hitters I don't see how we can an average offense next season.

[Julio3000]

The first two months of the season, we had a number of players out-performing projections, we had exceptional pinch hitting and hitting with RISP, and we had very few injuries. With everything breaking just right we managed to stay just below .500. We were not built to be a .500 team. We were a sub-.500 team catching a bunch of breaks and staying close to .500.

Ironically, we had a better team once Uribe came on board and we stopped giving significant roles to Callaspo, EYJr, Stults and Cahill. But our luck (including injuries) turned shortly after.

Can't quote this enough.

[auyushu]

I don't see how we can think we'll be a player in 17 if we aren't a player in 16. Unless 17 we plan on signing some studs I don't know about or we have some guys in the minors that are going to be killers in 17 (not sure who that would be). So I think you have to work to be a good team in 16. B/c going from a team like this to WS is a tough job.

Which is why the wait for 2017 mantra is pretty wacky. It doesn't really line up with the talent we have in the minors. Most of our elite talent is in the lower minors and won't be ready till 2018. So we either have to really kick butt this offseason making trades or FA signings or we aren't going to be competitive in 2016 and 2017. And if we aren't willing to do shell out the money to make that happen we might as well just get a couple more top draft picks rather than push really hard simply to be a .500 team.