Love The Strides We've Seen From Mallex Smith, But...

[clvclv]

Jackie Bradley would look awfully good perched atop our lineup and in CF for the near future.

[msstate7]

The price tag on JBJ is going up, up, up...

[50PoundHead]

Curious to see how the Red Sox approach the off-season. There are a lot of movable parts on that team. I think John Henry ranks highest among the "not as smart as he thinks he is" types in baseball and I wonder if he would like to reconsider the signings of Pedro Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, and Rusney Castillo.

[NYCBrave]

Curious to see how the Red Sox approach the off-season. There are a lot of movable parts on that team. I think John Henry ranks highest among the "not as smart as he thinks he is" types in baseball and I wonder if he would like to reconsider the signings of Pedro Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, and Rusney Castillo.

Luckily for the Red Sox, they have plenty of money to cover up their mistakes, and they can easily sell off some parts and pay portions of the salary. Also, their farm system is consistently among the best. Even with recent promotions, they continue to restock and develop talent at a high rate.

[NYCBrave]

*Edit: Duplicate post

[Julio3000]

I'm curious to see what direction Dombrowski goes with their team. I think Henry is pretty good owner, but I tend to agree with you, 50, that he has gotten to feel a little entitled based on the success they've had.

Cherington was a terrific player dev guy, but he did himself with those FA signings. If Dombrowski leaves their player dev infrastructure in place, they're going to continue to be scary, even if he starts dealing from that depth.

I doubt they'll trade JBJ, but I suppose any position player in the system is probably available (short of Mookie and Moncada). I think it's more likely that they play Castillo for a while and then deal him, if they decide to move any MLB outfielders at all.

[nsacpi]

There are some cautionary aspects to Bradley's performance this year. The .387 BABIP, which is well above anything he has turned in in AA, AAA or the majors. The .319 ISO, which is a ridiculous number, and also well above what he has done in the past. The 26% strikeout rate, which IS consistent with his performance in the majors and minors in recent years. And the 161 plate appearances in the majors this year, which is a relatively small sample.

Caveat emptor.

[clvclv]

Curious to see how the Red Sox approach the off-season. There are a lot of movable parts on that team. I think John Henry ranks highest among the "not as smart as he thinks he is" types in baseball and I wonder if he would like to reconsider the signings of Pedro Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, and Rusney Castillo.

Don't think I'm quite ready to call the Castillo deal a flop just yet. In the 33 games since he was brought back up in late July and has been getting regular playing time, Castillo's quietly slashing .317/.347/.458/.804 with 4 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 3 HRs, 20 RBIs, and 23 runs scored.

The Sox owe Rusney $16.4 million ($57,000,000) more than we owe Teheran ($40,600,000) over the same time period assuming Julio's 2020 option is picked up. I'm not ready to say I'd scream that Hart's lost his mind if he agreed to swap the two of them, but if Boston were to step up and sign Heyward to keep him away from the Yankees this winter and were willing to eat some of Castillo's money to make our books better I do think he'd have to at least consider it. They could clear some of that money by dealing Buchholz for prospects and replacing him in the rotation with Julio.

[gilesfan]

There are some cautionary aspects to Bradley's performance this year. The .387 BABIP, which is well above anything he has turned in in AA, AAA or the majors. The .319 ISO, which is a ridiculous number, and also well above what he has done in the past. The 26% strikeout rate, which IS consistent with his performance in the majors and minors in recent years. And the 161 plate appearances in the majors this year, which is a relatively small sample.

Caveat emptor.

Yeah, huge red flags even ignoring sample size.

[nsacpi]

Mallex Smith has responded very well this year to playing in tougher hitting environments. He could end up having an offensive prime similar to Michael Bourn's. But a big part of Bourn's value was tied up in his defense and I think it is less likely that Smith will be that kind of defender. I do think Smith's development gives us the flexibility to trade Maybin at some point.

[cajunrevenge]

I like a lot of others here have liked JBJ for a long time but I am not giving up much to trade for him. After 2 seasons of hitting like BJ Upton I am not going to give him the benefit of the doubt over 100 good at bats.

[nsacpi]

Speaking of Melvin, he's had a better season with the Pads than he did with us.

[cajunrevenge]

Speaking of Melvin, he's had a better season with the Pads than he did with us.

It would be hard to do worse. He could not play at all and still be having a better season than he ever had as a brave. The only difference between Braves BJ and Padres Melvin is that Melvin got to hit vs the Braves. 2 HR's vs us and not more than 1 HR vs any other team.

[smootness]

Mallex Smith has responded very well this year to playing in tougher hitting environments. He could end up having an offensive prime similar to Michael Bourn's. But a big part of Bourn's value was tied up in his defense and I think it is less likely that Smith will be that kind of defender. I do think Smith's development gives us the flexibility to trade Maybin at some point.

I actually think Smith profiles a lot like Bourn defensively as well. Bourn is kind of a weird case; he had two phenomenal defensive seasons, one very good one, and everything else ranged anywhere from slightly above average to slightly below average. But he was always a guy who didn't have great instincts, didn't take great routes, etc. His defensive value was almost solely tied to his speed, which allowed him to recover from mistakes and gave him great range.

Smith, by most reports, is not a natural defender, but he does have the speed, and with a few tweaks and by learning a few things, he should be able to become an above-average defensive CF without much problem.

[sturg33]

It would be hard to do worse. He could not play at all and still be having a better season than he ever had as a brave. The only difference between Braves BJ and Padres Melvin is that Melvin got to hit vs the Braves. 2 HR's vs us and not more than 1 HR vs any other team.

BJ has been better than Maybin this year... although sample size is small.

BJ Upton has a 1.1WAR in 173 PAs. That's a pace of 3.8 WAR in 600 PAs

Maybin has a 1.1 WAR in 503 PAs. That's a pace of 1.3 WAR in 600 PAs

[clvclv]

The Case For Rusney Castillo

[cajunrevenge]

BJ has been better than Maybin this year... although sample size is small.

BJ Upton has a 1.1WAR in 173 PAs. That's a pace of 3.8 WAR in 600 PAs

Maybin has a 1.1 WAR in 503 PAs. That's a pace of 1.3 WAR in 600 PAs

And this is another reason I think WAR is a deceptive stat. I dont think anyone on either side or fan base would rather have BJ over Maybin even at the same price.

[zitothebrave]

Jackie Bradley would look awfully good perched atop our lineup and in CF for the near future.

Bradley is 25 and has only played in 50 games this year when he's looked good.

Look at his minor numbers, he walked pretty well, has decent pop, but also has struck out a good amount.

I'd rather gamble on Mallex then give up assets to acquire someone who may not be better.

Realize even with this insane hot streak he's on now, his career major league wRC+ is 78. For as great as he was this year in his 161 PA, he was horrifying in last year's 423 PA.

Even without doing anything else. Let's normalize his BABIP this year to .300, we see he should have 8 less hits which drops his line down to .255/.335/.574. Does that dampen your enthusiasm a bit? Add in that in the minors he never has a significant stop with an iso over .200 (right now at .319) so let's drop that down to .200 and we're looking at .255/.335/.455. Still that tempting?

Don't get me wrong, this could be legit. But given the likelyhood that it's not and he's performing way over his head, I wouldn't give up more than say Dustin Peterson for him. Even then I probably wouldn't be sold that hard on it.

[zitothebrave]

And this is another reason I think WAR is a deceptive stat. I dont think anyone on either side or fan base would rather have BJ over Maybin even at the same price.

This year BJ has been a better player. Sample size issues of course.

He's hitting .236/.302/.408 at Petco which makes him good for a 96 wRC+ Maybin is at .268/.333/.382 in Atlanta which is good for a 98 wRC+. BJ is a much better defender than Maybin (always has been) and is a much better baserunner (again, always has been) if their numbers are close offensively, BJ is clearly the superior player as he's better at running and defense.

Now sample issues are abound here, as there was a point when Maybin had about 200 PA and looked amazing (he had a 114 wRC+ in the first half, which would have looked even better if you throw out his april PA and numbers, don't know how to actually od that though)

[clvclv]

Bradley is 25 and has only played in 50 games this year when he's looked good.

Look at his minor numbers, he walked pretty well, has decent pop, but also has struck out a good amount.

I'd rather gamble on Mallex then give up assets to acquire someone who may not be better.

Realize even with this insane hot streak he's on now, his career major league wRC+ is 78. For as great as he was this year in his 161 PA, he was horrifying in last year's 423 PA.

Even without doing anything else. Let's normalize his BABIP this year to .300, we see he should have 8 less hits which drops his line down to .255/.335/.574. Does that dampen your enthusiasm a bit? Add in that in the minors he never has a significant stop with an iso over .200 (right now at .319) so let's drop that down to .200 and we're looking at .255/.335/.455. Still that tempting?

Don't get me wrong, this could be legit. But given the likelyhood that it's not and he's performing way over his head, I wouldn't give up more than say Dustin Peterson for him. Even then I probably wouldn't be sold that hard on it.

Preach those numbers, brother.

Chipper Jones' first 602 MLB PAs and 524 ABs saw him put up a .265/.353/.450 line. Is that close to that .255/.335/.455 line you've adjusted Bradley's numbers to reflect? Apparently I don't know, so you tell me.

Obviously I'm not trying to draw comparisons between Chipper and Bradley, so before you (or everyone else) tweaks your spreadsheets to prove why they're not on the same trajectory, save it.

I love the additional clarity much of the new metrics provide for insight, but until you can hand me a printout that guarantees me that Jackie Bradley doesn't have a chance to turn into a really good player based on the numbers your computer spit out for you this early in his career, I'm still going to put a little weight on what my eyes tell me since I watch him play somewhat regularly. Many of you screamed at the top of your lungs about the fact that Maybin couldn't possibly do what he's done this year, so forgive me if I'm just a tad skeptical.

When someone's able to provide THAT kind of certainty (backed up by huge sample sizes of data of course), teams will stop hiring scouts IMO.