FA Pitchers

[nsacpi]

Let's talk about FA pitchers the Bravos might pursue. I think we have 25-30M to play with this off-season. The amount could grow if we made certain moves--trading Maybin for example.

I expect us to spend about half of that amount on a catcher and two or three bench/bullpen signings.

It is a buyer's market for FA starting pitchers and it is in that category that I expect us to make a major acquisition. For $12-18/year we can pick up a pitcher with expected production of about 2-3 WAR.

At the high end of that range perhaps above it you have Jordan Zimmerman. I'd be interested in him at 18M/year.

There are some attractive options that would cost a bit less than Zimmerman: Samardzija, Latos, Lackey, Kazmir. (Group 1)

A bit less attractive but within the projected 2-3 WAR: Buehrle, Chen, Iwakuma, Leake, Gallardo. (Group 2)

Below that range, but possibly worth kicking the tires on at a bargain price: Kennedy, Estrada, Lohse, Anderson. (Group 3).

I've long argued against signing pitchers to long-term deals. My opposition has somewhat softened because I think with the glut of FA starting pitchers it will be a buyers market and we can get a bargain this off-season. I still think it is important to limit the length of the contract. And I would insist on an option year to give us some upside. Ideally, 3 years plus an option year with most of these guys. And less with the older guys like Lackey and Buehrle.

My preference would be to get someone in Group 1 or even Zimmerman. I like Leake the most of the guys in Group 2. I think our being in the midst of a rebuilding period will make it more difficult to attract some of these candidates. The FO will have to do some sifting and identify those willing to consider a team in our situation. Above all I hope they are patient and go for value rather than a particular pitcher.

[Russ2dollas]

I think we get at least 1 vet pitcher, maybe 2. I expect it to be one we target and one that slips through the cracks. I think we'll be looking at guys who will sign for 2-3 years, so I think they'll be older.

Hart keeps signing guys over 30 and the Braves get older and older (in my prediction).

I think there will be a player or two in the situation Santana was a couple of years ago. With the glut of pitching options someone will get draft pick comp tied to them and not find a home. We'll be protected from that issue and maybe be able to get a 2 year deal with a team option for a third.

[UNCBlue012]

I'm begging to go after Greinke or Price, but I think Zimmerman will be our guy. I just feel like it's going to happen. I can see this team signing a vet guy like Zimmerman, while also adding a catcher, a couple bench guys and bullpen guys. I do think we have some minor league guys in the BP sooner than later.

[bravesfanforlife88]

I don't see us landing a stud like a price Grenkie or Zimmerman. One that intrigues me though is gallardo. He has been a stud in the past. Seems to be a good fit And I believe we have looked at him in the past.

Maybe give him a 4 yr @ 13 mil a year with an option and or incentives

[Horsehide Harry]

It's going to be Price at 7 years $190M

Maybin will be moved as will a number of others to continue to stockpile for the rebuild.

[50PoundHead]

I think they will shop in the upscale section of the store, but I don't know if they will buy anything there. I think an anchor like Price would be a great get.

[Enscheff]

It's going to be Price at 7 years $190M

Maybin will be moved as will a number of others to continue to stockpile for the rebuild.

Every offseason a few naive folks hold out hope for a FA signing that has 0% chance of happening.

[Millwood1Hitter]

PRICE AND GRIENKE

in my dreams

[Horsehide Harry]

Every offseason a few naive folks hold out hope for a FA signing that has 0% chance of happening.

We will see.

If by naïve you mean the Braves bringing back Heyward and/or Upton, then I agree. If you mean the Braves aren't going to sign a TOR anchor for the rotation, I don't agree. Virtually every move made signals that they are gearing up to go big on a pitcher IMO.

[Enscheff]

I think the OF will remain as is, and the Braves will either trade for a young catcher (like Susac) or give the CB/AJ duo another chance.

I think it's a foregone conclusion they will sign at least 1 FA pitcher, but I seriously doubt they go over 4 years for any of them. That rules out Zimmerman.

No thanks on Samahaha. The Braves already have enough guys in the rotation that can't get results with their "good stuff".

Latos might be an excellent buy low option since he is coming off some injuries the last 2 years.

Lackey might be OK, but would have to be on a 2 year deal max since he is older.

Kazmir would be nice, but I imagine he is going to be the most expensive non-Ace this offseason, and out of the Braves price range.

Leake is also my favorite from the next tier down. Anderson is my favorite from the tier below that.

As long as they wait for the dust to settle, the Braves should be able to get a SP or 2 at a bargain rate.

[Enscheff]

I'm looking forward to another offseason where folks insist on cooking up insane scenarios that allow the Braves to sign a guy they have no hope of signing.

[Enscheff]

Kazmir is one of the ones I want the least.

2010 - 150 innings
2011 - 1.2 innings
2012 - 0 innings
2013 - 158 innings
2014 - 190 innings
2015 - 164 innings

He's not durable, he's on the wrong side of 30. I'd take him for like a 3/30 deal but that's it. Only reason I consider that is because if he's healthy for 2 he should easily be worth that.

I'm not even remotely willing to pay him on one hot season.

Not durable? It looks to me like he was injured/recovering for 2 years, then came back to pitch a limited workload followed by 2 years of almost 200 innings both years. If anything Kazmir will be well out of the Braves price range.

[Hawk]

If anything Kazmir will be well out of the Braves price range.

That's highly unlikely, but it's also unlikely the Braves have any interest for the reasons Zito already mentioned. Age and durability issues are two things you would hope the Braves might be trying to steer clear of right now.

[Enscheff]

Latos was just DFA'd by the Dodgers. I wonder if the Braves should acquire him to let him work with Roger a bit and try to get straightened out over the next couple weeks.

Worst case scenario he sucks and is only given 1-2 starts.

Best case scenario he improves and wants to come back on a cheap 1-2 year contract to re-establish his value before hitting the FA market again.

[nsacpi]

Latos was just DFA'd by the Dodgers. I wonder if the Braves should acquire him to let him work with Roger a bit and try to get straightened out over the next couple weeks.

Worst case scenario he sucks and is only given 1-2 starts.

Best case scenario he improves and wants to come back on a cheap 1-2 year contract to re-establish his value before hitting the FA market again.

I wonder if the DFA will work to hold down his market value as a FA.

Estrada is my top choice from group 3. In my initial approach this off-season, I would get in touch with the agents for Latos, Leake, Lackey and Estrada (assuming there is no qualifying offer attached to Lackey and Estrada).

[Knucksie]

That's highly unlikely, but it's also unlikely the Braves have any interest for the reasons Zito already mentioned. Age and durability issues are two things you would hope the Braves might be trying to steer clear of right now.

The Braves should acquire Zito for short term, if for no other reason to offer affirmation to the forum member with that user name.

[dak]

Here's a look at the non-QO FA SPs with a pulse. I did a weighted calculation of fWAR / 200 IP. 2013 is weighted 25%, 2014 35%, and 2015 40%. The intent is to assess each pitchers value when healthy.

Price (30): 5.2 fWAR
Cueto (30): 3.5 fWAR
Latos (28): 3.3 fWAR
Kazmir (32): 3.1 fWAR
Colon (43): 3.0 fWAR
Happ (33): 2.5 fWAR
Buehrle (37): 2.5 fWAR
Leake (28): 1.8 fWAR
Fister (32): 1.8 fWAR
Estrada (32): 1.5 fWAR
Norris (31): 1.4 fWAR
Lohse (37): 1.3 fWAR

A few thoughts on the results:
- How much would a Life Coach cost for Latos?
- I've definitely been sleeping on Happ. He was the one that surprised me most.
- Still a fan of pursuing Fister. He's got to be looking for a one-year deal.

[Horsehide Harry]

Here's a look at the non-QO FA SPs with a pulse. I did a weighted calculation of fWAR / 200 IP. 2013 is weighted 25%, 2014 35%, and 2015 40%. The intent is to assess each pitchers value when healthy.

Price (30): 5.2 fWAR
Cueto (30): 3.5 fWAR
Latos (28): 3.3 fWAR
Kazmir (32): 3.1 fWAR
Colon (43): 3.0 fWAR
Happ (33): 2.5 fWAR
Leake (28): 1.8 fWAR
Fister (32): 1.8 fWAR
Estrada (32): 1.5 fWAR
Norris (31): 1.4 fWAR
Lohse (37): 1.3 fWAR

A few thoughts on the results:
- How much would a Life Coach cost for Latos?
- I've definitely been sleeping on Happ. He was the one that surprised me most.
- Still a fan of pursuing Fister. He's got to be looking for a one-year deal.

I can't see ANY reason to sign a SP on a one year deal at this point in the rebuild.