Looking ahead to 2016

[thewupk]

The Pads were supposed to cause some serious damage with Justin this year. Well, see how that turned out. A case could be made that the Cards would’ve been just fine this year without Jason.
Well, here’s what we can do to put the issue to the test. Since you’re so adept with numbers, compare how SD & STL end up next year without them vs. how they were this year with them.


That sounds like something that my buddy, Zito, would’ve instigated. Nevertheless, it may seem somewhat simplistic on the surface. If batters are swinging at air, instead of getting on base, they can’t prepare to score runs. So, it’s not completely unfounded either.

Justin is not the reason the Padres haven't played well. He's been one of the few bright spots on that team. And yeah you can argue that the Cards without Jason would still be leading the division. But would they have the most wins in MLB and knocking on 100 for the season? Probablly not. Instead of comparing how the Cards and and Padres do next year without those two how about we compare how the Braves did this year without them? Seems to me that becoming the 2nd worst team in the league is a pretty strong point in them being actual impact players.

And yes on the surface that might make sense. I mean it's drilled into kids heads in little league to just pull the ball in play and make the defense get you out. The problem is that doesn't work at the MLB level where even the worst defenders are still world class players. Simply putting the ball in play doesn't work. I can list all the reasons why this is the case but just look at the Braves this year and youll see a team that has zero power and doesn't walk a lot but puts the ball in play will fail to score runs. And there are plenty of other examples as well. All things being equal? Yeah I'd rather have a Chipper Jones who doesn't strikeout instead of a Justin Upton who does. But things are rarely ever equal. I'd much rather have the Justin Upton who does strike out than the Nick Markakis who doesn't. You have to look at everything and that's something the no strikeout crowd didn't do and refused to listen to this past offseason and spring training when there was mountains of evidence to suggest that way of thinking was incorrect.

[Knucksie]

And yes on the surface that might make sense. I mean it's drilled into kids heads in little league to just pull the ball in play and make the defense get you out. The problem is that doesn't work at the MLB level where even the worst defenders are still world class players. Simply putting the ball in play doesn't work. I can list all the reasons why this is the case but just look at the Braves this year and youll see a team that has zero power and doesn't walk a lot but puts the ball in play will fail to score runs. And there are plenty of other examples as well. All things being equal? Yeah I'd rather have a Chipper Jones who doesn't strikeout instead of a Justin Upton who does. But things are rarely ever equal. I'd much rather have the Justin Upton who does strike out than the Nick Markakis who doesn't. You have to look at everything and that's something the no strikeout crowd didn't do and refused to listen to this past offseason and spring training when there was mountains of evidence to suggest that way of thinking was incorrect.

Think that what they might have been suggesting is that the team was kind of overloaded with the high strikeout hitters, which was certainly true. (This comes from somebody, who kind of liked Gattis, so there's no bias.) If there's a trend toward more balance in the lineup, we'll see in a couple of years if this makes a difference.

One thing that can be said about the high strikeout guys is that it allows them to go deeper into the counts and get to the bullpens sooner!

[Knucksie]

Justin is not the reason the Padres haven't played well. He's been one of the few bright spots on that team. .

Nobody said he was, but he’s not front rank superstar either. Such players are capable of literally carrying teams, and he’s not of that caliber. Too streaky. However, he was expected to be one of those who would lead them to contend against the Dodgers.

And yeah you can argue that the Cards without Jason would still be leading the division. But would they have the most wins in MLB and knocking on 100 for the season? Probablly not.

We don’t really know, because the Cards wouldn’t have had to deal for him if their intended RF hadn’t been lost in the auto accident. He might have done just as ably, and they would’ve had Shelby in their rotation.

Instead of comparing how the Cards and and Padres do next year without those two how about we compare how the Braves did this year without them?

That’s a good point. Reminds me of when Bobby Cox told Bob Horner, “we finished last with you, we’ll finish last without you.”

Seems to me that becoming the 2nd worst team in the league is a pretty strong point in them being actual impact players.

Yet one of the best team in one-run games. How can that be? Either way, those who’ve indicated that there was a tanking strategy are probably onto something. (Living near Buffalo has made me sensitive to the issue after the events leading up to this past June’s NHL draft.) They haven’t had an opportunity to draft a blue chipper in 25 years. So, if that was the plan all along, fine by me.

[thewupk]

Think that what they might have been suggesting is that the team was kind of overloaded with the high strikeout hitters, which was certainly true. (This comes from somebody, who kind of liked Gattis, so there's no bias.) If there's a trend toward more balance in the lineup, we'll see in a couple of years if this makes a difference.

One thing that can be said about the high strikeout guys is that it allows them to go deeper into the counts and get to the bullpens sooner!

One of the problems with the 2014 team was that 3 of the high strikeout hitters were also hitters that offered nothing else offensviely. I think a lot of it is perception. If your hitting 200 with no power and striking out a lot then that just looks a lot worse then if your putting the ball in play. Even if in the end the overall result is the same. Another thing to go with the deeper counts for those who strikeout out a lot is that walks generally come with them. And that's obviously a good thing.

[thewupk]

Nobody said he was, but he’s not front rank superstar either. Such players are capable of literally carrying teams, and he’s not of that caliber. Too streaky. However, he was expected to be one of those who would lead them to contend against the Dodgers.


We don’t really know, because the Cards wouldn’t have had to deal for him if their intended RF hadn’t been lost in the auto accident. He might have done just as ably, and they would’ve had Shelby in their rotation.


That’s a good point. Reminds me of when Bobby Cox told Bob Horner, “we finished last with you, we’ll finish last without you.”


Yet one of the best team in one-run games. How can that be? Either way, those who’ve indicated that there was a tanking strategy are probably onto something. (Living near Buffalo has made me sensitive to the issue after the events leading up to this past June’s NHL draft.) They haven’t had an opportunity to draft a blue chipper in 25 years. So, if that was the plan all along, fine by me.

1) I would say Justin has carried them at times. He's that type of hitter since he's so streaky. I would argue that he's done his part but he hasn't had much help at all and baseball is a team game. And while some people did think all of their moves would lead to success there was a group of people that beleived it was all just flash and that they were simpling winning the offseason award which a lot of times doesn't equate to regular sesaon succes. I mean it was talked about a lot that they essentially put 3 left fielders in their outfield and that their defense out there would be a joke which has come true. They made a lot of moves and got some big names but the team wasn't put togethor well at all.


2) That's true. Some stuff sadly had to happen for the Cards to make a move for Heyward. But Heyward hasn't dissapointed for them this year. He's been a plus player in every facet of the game and has really carried the team in the 2nd half.

3) This is true. Except the Braves went from slightly below average to a laughing stock.


4) One run games are generally a fluke thing as there really is no way to constantly win that way. And if the team secretly wanted to tank then I wouldn't be mad at that. If you are going to blow the team up and hit the reset button then that is the way to go imo. Being mediocre is the worst thing a rebuilding team can do. Reminds me of all those years the Cowboys were 8-8. Good enough to not get a high pick but bad enough to not made the playoffs. Which is essentially just a wasted and pointless season. The best way to quickly rebuild is to tank hard for a year or two and get high impact draft picks. Hopefully that pans out next year in the draft especially if the Braves are going to go hard for those top 2 international prospects next spring as well.

[Knucksie]

4) One run games are generally a fluke thing as there really is no way to constantly win that way.

A lock tight late innings relievers can just about guarantee it. That's the irony, because the Braves don't have that luxury now.

[sturg33]

Nobody said he was, but he’s not front rank superstar either. Such players are capable of literally carrying teams, and he’s not of that caliber. Too streaky. However, he was expected to be one of those who would lead them to contend against the Dodgers.




.

This is like saying Harper hasn't been an impact player because he hasn't carried the Nats to the playoffs.

[Julio3000]

A lock tight late innings relievers can just about guarantee it. That's the irony, because the Braves don't have that luxury now.

Wait...we have a good record in one-run games but a tire fire of a bullpen? Doesn't that run counter to what you're suggesting?

[thewupk]

A lock tight late innings relievers can just about guarantee it. That's the irony, because the Braves don't have that luxury now.

Sure that helps a lot. But you have to have that 1 run lead and an offense inept enough to not score any more runs late in the game. In the end there are a lot of variables.

[Knucksie]

Wait...we have a good record in one-run games but a tire fire of a bullpen? Doesn't that run counter to what you're suggesting?

Not suggesting anything. It's currently a poor pen, but somehow this club has managed to put together an impressive record in one-run games. For teams with impressive pens, that wouldn't be particularly shocking. Check out the records of any teams going into the 9th inning with a lead. (Interestingly, the Padres were just fine...even before they decided that they needed our old pal, Kimbrel.)

[Knucksie]

Sure that helps a lot. But you have to have that 1 run lead and an offense inept enough to not score any more runs late in the game. In the end there are a lot of variables.

That wasn't exactly a well-kept secret, going into the season.

[thewupk]

That wasn't exactly a well-kept secret, going into the season.

Yeah but there was reason to believe that the lack of strikeouts would mean a more consistent offense.

[nsacpi]

Yeah but there was reason to believe that the lack of strikeouts would mean a more consistent offense.

Hasn't the offense been more consistent

[thewupk]

Hasn't the offense been more consistent

It's been consistently bad so I guess you have a point there

[Knucksie]

Yeah but there was reason to believe that the lack of strikeouts would mean a more consistent offense.

You keep coming back to me with what other people posted. Since you don't see me participating in those pissing matches, it's neither here nor there. If you just feel the need to rant because the Braves sucked this year, crocodile tears. They came right out and said that they were going to suck this year and next. How much more clear do they have to make it? It's not as if there's going to be a change in operating philosophy because of what some malcontents post on a fan-based message board.

[depley]

Let us break it down.

Starting pitching:
At least Teheran has shown some of what made us like him as the season comes to a close, middle of the season he was not good, but injury might have been there
Shelby Miller, what can you say he did not pitch as bad as his record appears, although he is ending the season on a not as good level
the rookies, Perez, Wisler, Folty, Banuelos, Ryan Weber. As a whole most not impressive, but they did gain valuable experience. Weber looks legit to me, similar in some ways to a Greg Maddux. Wisler is up and down, but servicable in the bottom of the rotation , Perez, his numbers look deceiving in the first half before injury, not sold on him. Folty has the stuff, but needs to learn movement not velocity gets out hitters. Banuelos, not overwhelming but has potential. what happens with Mike Minor?

The pen:
Viscaino looks to be about the only legitimate reliever out there, the rest eh. At some point I expect Grilli back, would be ok. Any of the rest are replaceable although Winkler probably has a spot next year. Hope Shae Simmons can come back strong.

Catcher:
Ok Perzynski did ok, but I still do not like his game calling skills, nor much of his defense or pitch framing. I am afraid they will sign him anyway, and I hate that we go with an old catcher, did I say old? I mean ancient. Bethancourt, wow what happened to the defense? I actually would be ok with Lavarnway as a backup

1B: Freddie played much of second half hurt, he is still the heart and soul of this team and a valuable member
2B: Peterson started fine, but boy did he go down hill, not sure if he is a future starter.
SS: Come on, Simmons is still the best defensive SS in the game, if he hits .260 so what?
3B: Olivera, I guess we will find out, he has some pop, but he sure does not seem to have insticts in the field for 3B
Outfield: We are stuck with Swisher, Markakis an Bourne...... old guys that are not that good, Dian Toscano signed a 4-year, $7.5 million? why and where is he?
Maybin much like Peterson sort of fell off the table in the 2nd half. Outfield look is bleak to say the least.

Bench: Castro, Garcia and Ciriaco, sort of 3 of the same sort of players, need more on the bench than this.

So, for me, 2016 does not look to me to be a whole lot better than 2015 unfortunately, and I do not see the Braves signing any big name free agent pitcher of otherwise. Will they trade for one? we will see, but not holding my breath.

[thewupk]

You keep coming back to me with what other people posted. Since you don't see me participating in those pissing matches, it's neither here nor there. If you just feel the need to rant because the Braves sucked this year, crocodile tears. They came right out and said that they were going to suck this year and next. How much more clear do they have to make it? It's not as if there's going to be a change in operating philosophy because of what some malcontents post on a fan-based message board.

I'm not upset the Braves suck. When they decided to rebuild this is what I had hoped for actually. It's the best way to quickly rebuild. But I honestly feel this was not what the Braves had planned. They tried to contend with all the marginal vet signings and trades which left them as a mediocre team. If we had finished that way it would have been awful. Luckily Freeman got hurt and the team tanked and we are where we are.

I post what I do because certain fans have been proven wrong. And I want to make sure they know that after all the 'hate' we got in spring training and the early parts of the year when the Braves benefited from cluster luck. Carry on though.

[GovClintonTyree]

Wait...we have a good record in one-run games but a tire fire of a bullpen? Doesn't that run counter to what you're suggesting?

Fredi is a magician.

[nsacpi]

Let us break it down.

Starting pitching:
At least Teheran has shown some of what made us like him as the season comes to a close, middle of the season he was not good, but injury might have been there
Shelby Miller, what can you say he did not pitch as bad as his record appears, although he is ending the season on a not as good level
the rookies, Perez, Wisler, Folty, Banuelos, Ryan Weber. As a whole most not impressive, but they did gain valuable experience. Weber looks legit to me, similar in some ways to a Greg Maddux. Wisler is up and down, but servicable in the bottom of the rotation , Perez, his numbers look deceiving in the first half before injury, not sold on him. Folty has the stuff, but needs to learn movement not velocity gets out hitters. Banuelos, not overwhelming but has potential. what happens with Mike Minor?

The pen:
Viscaino looks to be about the only legitimate reliever out there, the rest eh. At some point I expect Grilli back, would be ok. Any of the rest are replaceable although Winkler probably has a spot next year. Hope Shae Simmons can come back strong.

Catcher:
Ok Perzynski did ok, but I still do not like his game calling skills, nor much of his defense or pitch framing. I am afraid they will sign him anyway, and I hate that we go with an old catcher, did I say old? I mean ancient. Bethancourt, wow what happened to the defense? I actually would be ok with Lavarnway as a backup

1B: Freddie played much of second half hurt, he is still the heart and soul of this team and a valuable member
2B: Peterson started fine, but boy did he go down hill, not sure if he is a future starter.
SS: Come on, Simmons is still the best defensive SS in the game, if he hits .260 so what?
3B: Olivera, I guess we will find out, he has some pop, but he sure does not seem to have insticts in the field for 3B
Outfield: We are stuck with Swisher, Markakis an Bourne...... old guys that are not that good, Dian Toscano signed a 4-year, $7.5 million? why and where is he?
Maybin much like Peterson sort of fell off the table in the 2nd half. Outfield look is bleak to say the least.

Bench: Castro, Garcia and Ciriaco, sort of 3 of the same sort of players, need more on the bench than this.

So, for me, 2016 does not look to me to be a whole lot better than 2015 unfortunately, and I do not see the Braves signing any big name free agent pitcher of otherwise. Will they trade for one? we will see, but not holding my breath.

We'll add a bit with the 25-30M of payroll we have to play with this off-season. I think we are shaping up to be a team that will be in the 75-80 range when it comes to expected wins.

[smootness]

We don’t really know, because the Cards wouldn’t have had to deal for him if their intended RF hadn’t been lost in the auto accident. He might have done just as ably, and they would’ve had Shelby in their rotation.

Bringing up Taveras in evaluating Heyward's impact on this year's team is pointless. Regardless of the reason they had to go get Heyward, they have him on the team this year and they are winning a ton of games.

Bringing up Shelby isn't meaningful, either. They did lose Shelby and even still they're killing it. Heyward, by any measure, is a big part of the reason why.