JS/JHart interview

[bravesfanforlife88]

Anyone catch the interview last night with the 2 Johns? Hart was asked about the direction for next year. He specifically stated they are going to take a good look at fixing the bullpen and then possibly look into fixing a spot in the rotation this offseason.

I find that odd considering the suckitude of our offense. But sounds like to me they are not done with fixing the bullpen and rotation to where they would like it to be. Sounds like the offensive pieces will be added from within around 2017

[nsacpi]

They have 25-30M to spend. So 10-15M on a starter. 5-10M on the pen. 5-10M on a catcher. Doesn't leave much for elsewhere unless salary is moved.

I think part of the plan for 2016 is going with a Bourn/Swisher platoon (maybe not a strict platoon) in left in hopes they rebuild value and can be flipped at the deadline. I don't see either of those two being moved in the off-season. Maybin could be moved. I think he is the main piece that could be moved this off-season. But I'm not sure moving him would result in a net gain for our offense in 2016.

Once the Bourn/Swisher contracts are off the books and presumably payroll grows by 20-30M for 2017, we will be more aggressive about upgrading the corner outfield. I also think we will try to acquire an ace caliber pitcher on the trade market NEXT off-season. Someone like Sale or Hamels.

[bravesfanforlife88]

They have 25-30M to spend. So 10-15M on a starter. 5-10M on the pen. 5-10M on a catcher. Doesn't leave much for elsewhere unless salary is moved.

Does that include Paco Rodriguez? We will be getting him back, Simmons back, as well as a few other options that will be back by mid season. Plus a surplus in the rotation, unless they send guys like ManBan, Folty, etc. back to AAA.

[nsacpi]

Does that include Paco Rodriguez? We will be getting him back, Simmons back, as well as a few other options that will be back by mid season. Plus a surplus in the rotation, unless they send guys like ManBan, Folty, etc. back to AAA.

No. The Johns seem to want to get at least 2 more experienced relievers. Beyond what we currently have.

[thewupk]

Is there any way our offense can be worse next year? Barring the Marlins not scoring a run all weekend the Braves will be the only team not to score 600 runs this year. This team is by far the worst offense in the league and I don't see much improvement without going out and getting a legit hitter.

[nsacpi]

Is there any way our offense can be worse next year? Barring the Marlins not scoring a run all weekend the Braves will be the only team not to score 600 runs this year. This team is by far the worst offense in the league and I don't see much improvement without going out and getting a legit hitter.

Its a fluke. Any team that strikes out as little as we do normally scores a lot more runs. Our luck will change.

[dak]

Hart talked freely about adding pitching through the FA market, but he seemed to demure a bit the couple times when Joe / Chip asked him about the plan for adding position players in 2016. The only specific he mentioned is that they would add a veteran catcher. All we can do is speculate, but I'd be shocked and disappointed if all we do on the position side is add a Catcher and a bench piece and go to war. I think we'll see an upgrade either in the OF or 2B. Should not be particularly hard to do given the $ and talent we have at our disposal.

[nsacpi]

Hart talked freely about adding pitching through the FA market, but he seemed to demure a bit the couple times when Joe / Chip asked him about the plan for adding position players in 2016. The only specific he mentioned is that they would add a veteran catcher. All we can do is speculate, but I'd be shocked and disappointed if all we do on the position side is add a Catcher and a bench piece and go to war. I think we'll see an upgrade either in the OF or 2B. Should not be particularly hard to do given the $ and talent we have at our disposal.

Getting a starter, 2 relievers and a catcher will pretty much absorb the funds we have at our disposal. Which means pretty much the only way to upgrade the offense in 2016 is to trade prospects.

[dak]

Getting a starter, 2 relievers and a catcher will pretty much absorb the funds we have at our disposal. Which means pretty much the only way to upgrade the offense in 2016 is to trade prospects.

Hoping for a Maybin trade. His contract has to be at least a little underwater, so the return would be something on the order of a reliever who is a non-tender candidate. While clearing some of his money would help the cause a bit, I agree that we would need to trade "expendable" MLB players or prospects. I suspect Bethancourt will be very available. I'm also comfortable trading from the group of Folty, Billy Perez, Tyrell, Gant, Sims.

Also hoping to see us make play in the Rule 5 for a position player. We have a high pick, and gonna be hard to hide another pitcher in the BP since Winkler will be there. Get the best available OF or 2B with that third pick and see if you can turn them into a Justin Bour or Odubel Herrerra type.

[bravesfanforlife88]

here are some rotation pieces used this year:

ManBan 1-4 5.13 era
Folty: 4-6 5.79 era
Teheran: 10-8 4.16 era
Shelby: 5-17 3.15 era
Perez: 7-6 4.78era
Wisler: 7-8 5.11 era
Weber: 0-3 4.6era

Next year, from all indications, you add Minor back into the mix of things. Of the guys used so far this year, I think the locks to start out of the gate will be Shelby, Teheran. Out of the rest, I think that Wisler/Perez/Weber have sucked less? So I would imagine that you would have a rotation of Shelby, Teheran, Minor, one of Wisler/Perez/Weber, then an outside veteran with the rest of the guys back in AAA

[bravesfanforlife88]

Cancel what I said about Paco Rodriguez coming back next year. That Olivera deal keeps looking better and better!

[Enscheff]

If you can make a 3-4 WAR improvement by spending $10M on the BP you'd have to be pretty dumb not to do it. It is the most cost effective way to improve if you have a poor relief staff.

[Tapate50]

I wouldn't read too much into all this. Sure they are leaking a few nuggets out to the media, but what actually may happen is a totally different animal. I'd guess that this offseason looks a lot like the last one and we turn over a LOT of players.

[dak]

If you can make a 3-4 WAR improvement by spending $10M on the BP you'd have to be pretty dumb not to do it. It is the most cost effective way to improve if you have a poor relief staff.

That valuation is a bit aggressive, but I agree with the spirit of this. Based on how Hart / Coppy operated last year, we won't be shopping from the top shelf. I'd guess we'd spend $8m - $10m AAV to add 3 arms. If these 3 arms can produce 1.0 to 1.5 WAR and replace the production of 3 AAAA guys who would produce 0 to -0.5 WAR, we'd come out looking fine on this investment.

[nsacpi]

Grilli and Jim Johnson were good signings. If we can replicate that this off-season it would be great.

[dak]

Grilli and Jim Johnson were good signings. If we can replicate that this off-season it would be great.

Agreed. Here's the good, bad, and ugly of last year's FA signings of RPs to MLB deals (includes JJs performance with LAD):

- Grilli: $4.25m guaranteed, 1.2 fWAR
- JJ: $1.6m guaranteed, 0.3 fWAR
- Outman: $925k, 0 WAR

Things didn't exactly "come up roses" for those three players, and the result was 1.5 fWAR for a little under $7m.

[The Chosen One]

Just sign JJ back to another 1 year deal, and ship him off again if we suck and he's doing good.

[nsacpi]

Agreed. Here's the good, bad, and ugly of last year's FA signings of RPs to MLB deals (includes JJs performance with LAD):

- Grilli: $4.25m guaranteed, 1.2 fWAR
- JJ: $1.6m guaranteed, 0.3 fWAR
- Outman: $925k, 0 WAR

Things didn't exactly "come up roses" for those three players, and the result was 1.5 fWAR for a little under $7m.

1.5 WAR for 7M is good. Last off-season the going rate for FA starting pitchers was about 6M/projected win and for FA hitters about 7M/projected win. One of the questions for this off-season is whether the front office will dabble in a slightly more expensive section of the free agent reliever pool.

[50PoundHead]

Agreed. Here's the good, bad, and ugly of last year's FA signings of RPs to MLB deals (includes JJs performance with LAD):

- Grilli: $4.25m guaranteed, 1.2 fWAR
- JJ: $1.6m guaranteed, 0.3 fWAR
- Outman: $925k, 0 WAR

Things didn't exactly "come up roses" for those three players, and the result was 1.5 fWAR for a little under $7m.

What the H happened to Johnson in LA? He was solid for us, but has really struggled there.

I don't think we have to go dumpster diving to improve the bullpen. There should be a lot of reasonable options out there that can help mightily that would cost us similar to what we invested last season (< $10 MM). I don't know if Vizcaino is a closer, but he pitched well enough to merit consideration. Once closer is established, the team can build back from there. After the departure of Avilan and Johnson, we didn't have anyone remotely reliable to bridge from the starter to the closer.

The bullpen is kind of a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" proposition. I subscribe to the theory that nothing can kill a team's morale like a shaky bullpen, especially a team with limited offense. If that's who you are, you have to win games you are supposed to win and having a bullpen that promotes the evaporation of hard-earned leads, it just saps the life out of a squad.