The No. 3 overall pick is a virtual lock for the Braves now, so it merits a closer look as to what might be available and how the Braves play it. At times, we have seen teams picking this high go for value over pricey bonuses, but the trends should hold up over the history of the draft (1965-2015).
The chances of the Braves drafting a Hall of Famer would seem to be 25:1. Only Robin Yount (1973) and Paul Molitor (1977) have made the grade, but you never know about Evan Longoria (2006).
The Braves have drafted No. 3 three times before, and hit on two out of three: Ken Dayley (1980) and Steve Avery (1988) were solid, occasionally terrific, big league pitchers. Ken Smith (1978) was more 70s woe a bust at first base.
High school vs. college:
Manny Machado (2010), Eric Hosmer (2008), Mike Lieberthal (1990), Avery, Lonnie Smith (1974), Yount would be high school hits.
Donovan Tate (2009), Josh Vitters (2007), Chris Gruler (2002), Corey Patterson (1998), Jay Schroeder (1979) would be h.s. misses.
Carlos Rodon (2014), Jon Gray (2013), Evan Longoria (2006), Troy Glaus (1997), Braden Looper (1996), Matt Williams (1986), Hubie Brooks (1978) would easily score as wins, or potential wins out of college.
College flops: Trevor Bauer (2011), Jeff Clement (2005), David Humber (2004 but he had a no-hitter!), Kyle Sleeth (2003), Dewon Brazelton (2001), Eric Munson (2001), Brian Anderson (1993).
Position guy vs. pitcher:
Pitchers have been picked at No. 3 seven times since 2000, but nine times between 1984 and 1996. Pitchers were taken in 2011 (Bauer), 2013 (Gray), 2014 (Rodon).
Last year: SS Brendon Rogers, high school SS, taken by Colorado.
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Originally Posted by skillet
