Around Baseball Offseason Thread

[Deester11]

I was scared. I'm sitting here half asleep and saw Miller at the top of mlbtraderumors, the no god it wasn't ours!

still half sleep?

[bravesfanforlife88]

still half sleep?

Getting there again. Good night!

[nsacpi]

Interesting to see that the early scuttlebutt is that the Cubs will go after Price. Makes sense. Their starting pitching after Arrieta and Lester could use an upgrade.

I wonder if they will work to bring back Fowler as well. It would leave them with an outfield of Fowler, Schwarber and Soler. And infield of Bryant, Russell, Castro and Rizzo. Baez might be the odd man out but they might opt to keep him to see how things play out. If Schwarber sticks at catcher (which looks unlikely at this point) they could move Baez to left.

[dak]

Sounds pretty definitive from Gammons. Hope he's right.

[sturg33]

Keith Law ranked his top 50 free agents.

Hayward came in at #1, Upton #4

1. Jason Heyward, RF/CF
Age: 26 | DOB: 8/9/1989
HT: 6-5 | WT: 245

2015 Stats
AVG OBP SLG HR SB WAR
.293 .359 .439 13 23 6.5
Heyward has already produced 31.1 WAR in his career (baseball-reference version), the 31st-best total for any position player through his age-25 season in major league history -- he's between Lou Gehrig and Roberto Alomar -- but I'd argue he hasn't even reached his full potential yet. Heyward's value so far as a big leaguer has been primarily on the defensive side, where he has been one of the most valuable fielders at any position in baseball for the past several years, starring in right field with the occasional stint in center.

I wrote last offseason when he was traded to St. Louis that getting out of Atlanta, where numerous position players stagnated or regressed during the Frank Wren era, was the best thing for him, and it played out that way, as the Cardinals tweaked his swing enough to get him to improve the quality of his contact so that he could post the best batting average and second-best OBP of his career. It's hard to pinpoint the start of his "new" swing, but after a dismal April, he hit .306/.375/.455 the rest of the way, and hit .318/.397/.469 after the All-Star break.

That said, the changes worked out in a way I didn't expect: Instead of getting Heyward to hit for more power, the changes made Heyward even more of a ground ball hitter, raising his BABIP but not his home run production.

This version of Heyward is comfortably a 5-6 WAR per year player, and he should hold that value for the length of whatever contract he gets, even if it runs seven years. But there's no physical reason he can't find 20-25 homer power again; he hit 27 in 2012 and 18 (in 142 games) in 2010. Shoulder problems caused him to shorten his swing -- specifically the path from his loaded position to the ball -- and more mechanical work might turn him into a 7 or 8 WAR player, especially with his peak offensive years ahead of him based on his age.

If a team can find a way to pay Heyward for what he's been rather than what he might be, it could actually come out ahead on the deal, a rarity at the top end of the free-agent market. I'd be fine giving him seven years and more than $150 million.

[Tapate50]

Keith Law ranked his top 50 free agents.

Hayward came in at #1, Upton #4

1. Jason Heyward, RF/CF
Age: 26 | DOB: 8/9/1989
HT: 6-5 | WT: 245

2015 Stats
AVG OBP SLG HR SB WAR
.293 .359 .439 13 23 6.5
Heyward has already produced 31.1 WAR in his career (baseball-reference version), the 31st-best total for any position player through his age-25 season in major league history -- he's between Lou Gehrig and Roberto Alomar -- but I'd argue he hasn't even reached his full potential yet. Heyward's value so far as a big leaguer has been primarily on the defensive side, where he has been one of the most valuable fielders at any position in baseball for the past several years, starring in right field with the occasional stint in center.

I wrote last offseason when he was traded to St. Louis that getting out of Atlanta, where numerous position players stagnated or regressed during the Frank Wren era, was the best thing for him, and it played out that way, as the Cardinals tweaked his swing enough to get him to improve the quality of his contact so that he could post the best batting average and second-best OBP of his career. It's hard to pinpoint the start of his "new" swing, but after a dismal April, he hit .306/.375/.455 the rest of the way, and hit .318/.397/.469 after the All-Star break.

That said, the changes worked out in a way I didn't expect: Instead of getting Heyward to hit for more power, the changes made Heyward even more of a ground ball hitter, raising his BABIP but not his home run production.

This version of Heyward is comfortably a 5-6 WAR per year player, and he should hold that value for the length of whatever contract he gets, even if it runs seven years. But there's no physical reason he can't find 20-25 homer power again; he hit 27 in 2012 and 18 (in 142 games) in 2010. Shoulder problems caused him to shorten his swing -- specifically the path from his loaded position to the ball -- and more mechanical work might turn him into a 7 or 8 WAR player, especially with his peak offensive years ahead of him based on his age.

If a team can find a way to pay Heyward for what he's been rather than what he might be, it could actually come out ahead on the deal, a rarity at the top end of the free-agent market. I'd be fine giving him seven years and more than $150 million.

And any team would JUMP on that, and I would hope we would as well. I don't think that is near what he gets though. I think we are looking at well north of 200.

[dak]

And any team would JUMP on that, and I would hope we would as well. I don't think that is near what he gets though. I think we are looking at well north of 200.

Here are the contract guesses I've seen on Heyward:

Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors: 10 yrs, $200m with Opt Out
Dave Cameron of Fangraphs: 9 yrs, $195m with Opt Out.

IMO, those are pretty fair guesses. I continue to believe the Braves made the right decision to trade him. I also support the organization's policy not to offer opt out clauses.

[bravesfanforlife88]

And any team would JUMP on that, and I would hope we would as well. I don't think that is near what he gets though. I think we are looking at well north of 200.

I don't think he gets well over $200m....it will of course depend on the market for him, which teams are in on him, and how desperate they are. For instance, you get into a Cards vs Cubs, Yanks vs Red Sox, etc. bidding war, the price will be driven up...

I am thinking he probably gets about a 7-8 year deal for about $195-$205 mil. Including the option year and an opt out after age 29 season. I wouldn't mind doing a deal similar in structure to that, say at $25mil/year if he would do that. Include the opt out after age 29 season.

[nsacpi]

I think Heyward will get an AAV around 25M. 7 or 8 years.

[50PoundHead]

Here are the contract guesses I've seen on Heyward:

Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors: 10 yrs, $200m with Opt Out
Dave Cameron of Fangraphs: 9 yrs, $195m with Opt Out.

IMO, those are pretty fair guesses. I continue to believe the Braves made the right decision to trade him. I also support the organization's policy not to offer opt out clauses.

I'd see these as pretty solid estimates. I think he needs a bit more power to warrant $25 MM AAV, which to me signals Heyward will insist on an opt-out as the power may yet develop. Don't get me wrong. It's not all about power and Heyward is an excellent player, but the big fly will get you at the extra oomph in the contract department.

[bravesfanforlife88]

I wonder when/if we will get to a point when the team will be allowed to have an opt out clause in the contract....for instance, say someone is signed to a 10 year contract for high dollars. they negotiate an opt out after 3 years for the player, can the team step in and say they want an opt out clause for them at 6 years or 7 years into the deal where they don't have to pay the buy out.....

that would be pretty interesting and make these long term deals have a little less risk. im sure the players union would not allow it, but just a thought

[bravesfanforlife88]

Players to get the qualifying offer so far:

Heyward
Lackey
Estrada
Fowler
Iwakuma
Murphy
Gordon
Kennedy

[Hudson2]

I agree the team should have an opt out option also. The players have to much power as it is. But speed will be the first thing to go and there goes his defense being so great. I wouldn't go 10 years for any player. And I don't see Heyward getting 25 per year either. I'll be glad when he signs somewhere.

[nsacpi]

Interesting to see Estrada get the QO. He's someone that might have been on our shopping list.

I see Lackey also got a QO.

[Hudson2]

I was hoping for Estrada to.

[Horsehide Harry]

Players to the the qualifying offer so far:

Heyward
Lackey
Estrada
Fowler
Iwakuma
Murphy
Gordon
Kennedy

For some reason I am unreasonably optimistic just looking at this list....

[bravesfanforlife88]

I agree the team should have an opt out option also. The players have to much power as it is. But speed will be the first thing to go and there goes his defense being so great. I wouldn't go 10 years for any player. And I don't see Heyward getting 25 per year either. I'll be glad when he signs somewhere.

Agree with some of that. Of course I was using the 10 year in reference to the ARod Pujols Stanton, etc. deals. Which 10 years for a player is ludacris. So probably give the player the opt out choice at 3 years and the team the opt out at year 4 or 5.

I think Heyward does get $25 mil. I could see a bidding war between 2 teams that bumps it up. Also, I am almost 100% he gets the opt out clause, he should fire his agent if he doesn't

[clvclv]

I think Heyward will get an AAV around 25M. 7 or 8 years.

At least. And here's why...

Someone will see Brett Gardner as a good value (3 years/$36 million) and he will be moved for young pitching or MI help.

Although he's a liability defensively in the OF, Beltran can still hit and is in the last year of his contract - given the amount of ground Ellsbury and Heyward can cover, you shift them around to help cover the gap in left-center.

Slade Heathcott becomes their 4th OF - he buys them time to give more ABs to Judge to start next season and can play in LF on days that Beltran DHs or has off.

Sabathia ($25 million in 2016, $5 million buyout in 2017), Beltran ($15 million), Teixeira ($22.5 million) and Gardner ($36 million) would all be off the books by 2017. A-Rod ($20 million) comes off the books following 2017.


2016 Lineup:
CF-Ellsbury/Heyward/Heathcott, RF- Heyward/Heathcott, DH- A-Rod/Beltran/Bird, 1B- Teixeira/Bird, LF- Beltran/Heathcott, C- Mac, 3B- Headley, 2B- Ackley/Pirela, SS- Gregorius


Just another "if I were Cashman" deals, but I'd forget going after an "Ace", and sign Heyward, Zobrist, and Murphy instead. Zobrist fitting in in LF/RF/2B/SS as needed and Murphy fitting in at 2B/3B as needed. Sure that'd cost them more money than an "Ace" in 2016, but you've got all that money coming off the books and you'd have so much offense you could prop up a marginal staff and afford to wait until next season and then go out and sign Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Cashner, etc. with the money that comes off the books later.

[bravesfanforlife88]

Players to get the qualifying offer so far:

Heyward
Lackey
Estrada
Fowler
Iwakuma
Murphy
Gordon
Kennedy
Shark
Kendrick
Anderson
Greinke
Zimmerman
Desmond

[bravesfanforlife88]

David DeJesus had his option declined by the Angels....he becomes a free agent

I remember when he was highly sought after with KC