BRAVES OPENING DAY ROSTER

[clvclv]

It just makes too much sense. His 2015 stat line is what I would expect from him going forward so I dont know you can call it a rough season. Taking a year off from TJ surgery seems like a benefit if you consider thats one year less of wear and tear on his body. It all depends on how much it takes to sign him but catchers who can put up an average OBP with 20 HR power and good defense dont grow on trees.

Think that gets him right back to where I was a bit excited at the prospect of signing him a while back (too lazy to dig it up right now, sorry). I'd mentioned that I think that if you could get him for a Markakis-type deal - say 4 years and $40 to $48 million - it's almost a "no-brainer" to me. More pop and better defense than A. J. plus he's a switch-hitter and would really make it much easier to balance the lineup on a daily basis. For no other reason than that I've always preferred him over Lucroy personally. If Maybin's not dealt...

RF- Marakakis, CF- Maybin, 1B- Freeman, C- Wieters, 3B- Olivera, LF- Swisher, 2B- Castro/Peterson, SS- Simmons

looks worlds better on paper than what we spent the majority of 2015 with to me. Find some way to get both Cam and Bourn enough ABs to hopefully make them attractive to a contender come July and give Mallex another few months in Gwinnett to force his way onto the roster instead of being pushed quite as quickly as Peterson was this season.

Would probably be a bit beyond the "10-10-10 Approach" several have mentioned, but if you could play on Wieters at $12 million per, Kazmir/Kennedy/Latos for around $14 million per (4/$56 million), and maybe Oliver Perez for $4 million per (2/$8 million), suddenly that might look a lot more competitive.

Miller, Teheran, Kazmir/Kennedy/Latos, Wisler, Minor/???

Vizcaino, Grilli, Perez, Simmons, Withrow, Marksberry, Burawa

[bravesfanMatt]

Think that gets him right back to where I was a bit excited at the prospect of signing him a while back (too lazy to dig it up right now, sorry). I'd mentioned that I think that if you could get him for a Markakis-type deal - say 4 years and $40 to $48 million - it's almost a "no-brainer" to me. More pop and better defense than A. J. plus he's a switch-hitter and would really make it much easier to balance the lineup on a daily basis. For no other reason than that I've always preferred him over Lucroy personally. If Maybin's not dealt...

RF- Marakakis, CF- Maybin, 1B- Freeman, C- Wieters, 3B- Olivera, LF- Swisher, 2B- Castro/Peterson, SS- Simmons

looks worlds better on paper than what we spent the majority of 2015 with to me. Find some way to get both Cam and Bourn enough ABs to hopefully make them attractive to a contender come July and give Mallex another few months in Gwinnett to force his way onto the roster instead of being pushed quite as quickly as Peterson was this season.

Would probably be a bit beyond the "10-10-10 Approach" several have mentioned, but if you could play on Wieters at $12 million per, Kazmir/Kennedy/Latos for around $14 million per (4/$56 million), and maybe Oliver Perez for $4 million per (2/$8 million), suddenly that might look a lot more competitive.

Miller, Teheran, Kazmir/Kennedy/Latos, Wisler, Minor/???

Vizcaino, Grilli, Perez, Simmons, Withrow, Marksberry, Burawa

like the thought. I wonder if Wieters will command more than that though. I think there will be a few teams in on him this offseason. Catching position will be an interesting topic this offseason. If we do get Wieters, what to do with CB, AAA to build value? back up?

I still think Cam gets dealt this offseason. His value is far less than last July but I think the Braves want to clear that payroll this year. Eury/Bourn/Swisher will get playing time with Adonis getting some reps.

Also, Perez (if not dealt) will be AAA next year. Winkler and ManBan have to be in the majors next year so they will most likely be Pen options.

[clvclv]

like the thought. I wonder if Wieters will command more than that though. I think there will be a few teams in on him this offseason. Catching position will be an interesting topic this offseason. If we do get Wieters, what to do with CB, AAA to build value? back up?

I still think Cam gets dealt this offseason. His value is far less than last July but I think the Braves want to clear that payroll this year. Eury/Bourn/Swisher will get playing time with Adonis getting some reps.

Also, Perez (if not dealt) will be AAA next year. Winkler and ManBan have to be in the majors next year so they will most likely be Pen options.

Which is a big reason I've long been a proponent of cutting Minor loose. I understand those who think he's a worthwhile gamble, but when you consider we're more than likely going to play on that second or third level for one rotation spot (Kaxmir/Kennedy/Latos/Leake/Brett Anderson/Jaime Garcia/etc., Minor seems like a bit of overkill and a waste of resources. You then have four rotation spots spoken for Miller/Teheran/Free-Agent/Wisler. Why spend another $6 million for him when you're just hoping for good results? If it didn't make sense with Medlen or Beachy, I don't see why it makes sense with Minor. You'd then still have quite a few options available to fill the fifth slot in Banuelos (if healthy and not transitioned to the pen), Folty (if healthy and not transitioned to the pen), Williams Perez, Weber, Jenkins.

I just think that $6 million for Minor would be better spent if you needed an extra million or two to add Wieters, a healthier mid-rotation arm, and a reliever.

The only reason I don't think Maybin gets dealt before midseason is that I think they're willing to roll the dice that he continues to get better under Seitzer and gets them more than just a middle reliever. Note that I'm not saying a Top 50 or Top 100 prospect, but at least he's shown enough to potentially net you that IF he gets on another early roll like he did this year. They don't want to have that bad stretch again, meaning he's a much better bet as an everyday player than Bourn. If Mallex proves he's ready, then you trade him for whatever you can get at that point - if you move him before that, you run the risk of having the same B. J./Melvin black hole in CF with Bourn.

[bravesfanMatt]

Which is a big reason I've long been a proponent of cutting Minor loose. I understand those who think he's a worthwhile gamble, but when you consider we're more than likely going to play on that second or third level for one rotation spot (Kaxmir/Kennedy/Latos/Leake/Brett Anderson/Jaime Garcia/etc., Minor seems like a bit of overkill and a waste of resources. You then have four rotation spots spoken for Miller/Teheran/Free-Agent/Wisler. Why spend another $6 million for him when you're just hoping for good results? If it didn't make sense with Medlen or Beachy, I don't see why it makes sense with Minor. You'd then still have quite a few options available to fill the fifth slot in Banuelos (if healthy and not transitioned to the pen), Folty (if healthy and not transitioned to the pen), Williams Perez, Weber, Jenkins.

I just think that $6 million for Minor would be better spent if you needed an extra million or two to add Wieters, a healthier mid-rotation arm, and a reliever.

The only reason I don't think Maybin gets dealt before midseason is that I think they're willing to roll the dice that he continues to get better under Seitzer and gets them more than just a middle reliever. Note that I'm not saying a Top 50 or Top 100 prospect, but at least he's shown enough to potentially net you that IF he gets on another early roll like he did this year. They don't want to have that bad stretch again, meaning he's a much better bet as an everyday player than Bourn. If Mallex proves he's ready, then you trade him for whatever you can get at that point - if you move him before that, you run the risk of having the same B. J./Melvin black hole in CF with Bourn.

kind of feel that Minor will go through arb again this year and the FO is hoping to reduce his pay because of injury risk. They then hope to build his value to flip before he becomes a FA.

[emk418]

Not really sure I want to sink big money into a 29 year old catcher who's struggled staying healthy.

[clvclv]

kind of feel that Minor will go through arb again this year and the FO is hoping to reduce his pay because of injury risk. They then hope to build his value to flip before he becomes a FA.

That's still the point though, isn't it? The absolute least amount Minor could get is $4,480,000 IF the arbitrators agreed to give him the maximum cut allowed, and that's well beyond not likely to happen. MLBTR's arbitration projection calls for him to likely make the same as he made in 2015 - $5,600,000.

You'd come much closer to improving the team overall by using the entire amount to improve other areas than the minimal upgrade Minor is likely to offer over the other #5 SP options already in house plus an extra $1,120,000 to pay someone - even if he gets that pay cut. You're not getting a useful pen arm for a million bucks.

[bravesfanMatt]

That's still the point though, isn't it? The absolute least amount Minor could get is $4,480,000 IF the arbitrators agreed to give him the maximum cut allowed, and that's well beyond not likely to happen. MLBTR's arbitration projection calls for him to likely make the same as he made in 2015 - $5,600,000.

You'd come much closer to improving the team overall by using the entire amount to improve other areas than the minimal upgrade Minor is likely to offer over the other #5 SP options already in house plus an extra $1,120,000 to pay someone - even if he gets that pay cut. You're not getting a useful pen arm for a million bucks.

I can agree with you on this, however, the Braves don't plan on being a contender this year. I think they are trying to get something from Minor while they still have control. it is kind of a lottery ticket type gamble for ~5 million. Yes, I agree that I would them rather let the young guys take that spot and continue development. That 5 to 6 million could help in many other ways. But I think the Johns are thinking 2016 is a wash so lets see who can we build that is left on the 40 man and trade away.

[Horsehide Harry]

They have to really, REALLY be sure that Minor is straightened out and will return to form to make that gamble. Unless Minor and Price are somehow buddies (they were two years apart at Vandy), and the Braves are going to push for Price, then it makes no sense unless Minor is hitting 91-92 off the mound right now.

[bravesfanMatt]

They have to really, REALLY be sure that Minor is straightened out and will return to form to make that gamble. Unless Minor and Price are somehow buddies (they were two years apart at Vandy), and the Braves are going to push for Price, then it makes no sense unless Minor is hitting 91-92 off the mound right now.

if they were really, really sure then it wouldn't be a gamble.

[Horsehide Harry]

if they were really, really sure then it wouldn't be a gamble.

It's a matter of odds.

Really, REALLY sure means the odds are very good.
Know for sure = no gamble.
hope = long shot

[nsacpi]

There is uncertainty about every player. Trite but true.

[bravesfanMatt]

It's a matter of odds.

Really, REALLY sure means the odds are very good.
Know for sure = no gamble.
hope = long shot

What if they say they Really, REALLY hope they know for sure that he would rebound.

[dak]

One nice thing about taking a chance on Minor is that year-to-year contracts for arbitration eligible players are not fully guaranteed when tendered. If he's healthy but not looking great in Spring Training (low velocity, etc.), he can be placed on unconditional release waivers. If done by 3/16, we only need to pay one-sixth of his salary. If done by 3/30, we only need to pay one-fourth of his salary. They need to MRI the hell out of that shoulder before tendering him, but if it checks out, it feels like a decent risk.

[nsacpi]

One nice thing about taking a chance on Minor is that year-to-year contracts for arbitration eligible players are not fully guaranteed when tendered.

Yes. Options and the optionality embedded in the arbitration process are very valuable tools for controlling risk. Especially with pitchers. It is one of the reasons why the CJ contract was such a big mistake. Wren gave away the protection the club could get from the options on CJ. Not literally the options, but the option-like aspect of the arbitration structure. You only give that up for a significant discount on the post-arb years.

[rico43]

In addition to re-signing Andy Otero, two Gwinnett guys who were on the top 40, David Carpenter and Michael Kohn, have elected freed agency.

In a procedural move, the Braves finished the year with 23 minor leaguers on the DL who have been "activated," including Povse, Parsons, Toussaint, Minter, Chris Diaz, Whalen, Feigl and, of course, Albies.

[Horsehide Harry]

What if they say they Really, REALLY hope they know for sure that he would rebound.

throw in an "uh" and it Sounds like Coppy

[zbhargrove]

if they were really, really sure then it wouldn't be a gamble.

Yah, but pitchers have rarely ever come back from the type of surgery Minor had... its not a good gamble.

[nsacpi]

Yah, but pitchers have rarely ever come back from the type of surgery Minor had... its not a good gamble.

what type of surgery did he have and who else has had it

[dak]

If memory serves, the damage was so minimal that it was just showing as inflammation on the MRI. They ended up doing exploratory surgery and making some minor repairs on his labrum. In other words, not a fully torn labrum. That's actually about the best you can hope for when a guy is having shoulder surgery, I would think.

[clvclv]

what type of surgery did he have and who else has had it

His labrum was "slightly" torn. Always interested when I hear "slightly" associated with injuries - particularly labrums and UCLs. Have torn ligaments in both ankles and one knee, and no one ever described mine as "slightly" torn - a tear's a tear.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/124354...oulder-surgery

FWIW, Minor was supposed to be able to start throwing in September if things went well. Can't imagine EVERYONE would have somehow missed reports on how it was going if he's been throwing for weeks by now.