One More Punt???

[Carp]

Here's this issue with the pitching as I see it: The upside is not great (certainly not Mets great), the downside could be catastrophic, and the likelihood is jus meh...

All the real "high end" pitching is 3-4 years away at least residing with Allard, Touki and maybe Soroka and Fried.

ManBan looks like he is injury prone for his career and will end up in relief.
Folty looks like a million dollar arm with one dollar control, meaning it comes and goes. With his clot situation and the way the winds were blowing to end the season he also looks to be headed for relief.
Wisler is the one guy who looks like he could develop and become a very solid 3 and maybe even a passable two but I don't see ACE or even "rotation lead" anywhere.
Weber and Williams are dime a dozen guys who have probably had their 15 minutes.

I would consider both Jenkins and Sims as high end guys and they are both major league ready as well.

[nsacpi]

I would consider both Jenkins and Sims as high end guys and they are both major league ready as well.

Imo both would struggle if placed in a major league rotation in 2016. Look at the struggles of Wisler, Foltynevich and Williams Perez last year. Those three were closer to being "ready" based upon minor league performance and experience at the AA and AAA levels than Jenkins and Sims are going into the 2016 season.

[nsacpi]

The Braves are in a MUCH better situation than KC was in when Moore took over. We have a decent core at the major league level already and a farm system rich with talent (not as much high end talent in the upper minors however). It honestly would not take much to make this team a contender.

I agree. A lot of the discussion around here overlooks the fact that we have a good strong young core (Freeman, Simmons, Teheran, Miller) at the major league level. Better than what other rebuilding teams have had. And under contractual control on team-friendly terms for some time to come.

The part of the puzzle that is a challenge is that the farm system is strong at the lower levels and relatively weak at the upper levels. The front office has the option to trade some of the lower level talent for talent that is major league ready. But that would depart to some extent from its stated goal of reloading the farm system in a way that ensures sustainable success.

[Carp]

Imo both would struggle if placed in a major league rotation in 2016. Look at the struggles of Wisler, Foltynevich and Williams Perez last year. Those three were closer to being "ready" based upon minor league performance and experience at the AA and AAA levels than Jenkins and Sims are going into the 2016 season.

Well I could point to guys like JT and Hanson who pitched so well at a young age as well. Now I'm not saying Jenkins and Sims are in the same class as prospects as Hanson or that they are likely to be great right away, but both pitchers do have a high ceiling as far as potential.

[nsacpi]

Well I could point to guys like JT and Hanson who pitched so well at a young age as well. Now I'm not saying Jenkins and Sims are in the same class as prospects as Hanson or that they are likely to be great right away, but both pitchers do have a high ceiling as far as potential.

It is possible Sims and Jenkins would do well in the majors. But it is unlikely given their level of minor league success and experience. Hanson's minor league track record was much more impressive leading up to his promotion to the majors. I believe he was also very highly ranked by the various prospects lists before he made his ML debut. Teheran had a more up and down path through the minors, but his general trajectory and rankings on the prospect lists were also on a much higher plane than either Jenkins or Sims.

Now I think the recent reports on Sims are very promising. He could be breaking out. But the usual caveat about sss applies.

[bravesfanforlife88]

With the team not expecting to compete next season, you could argue for Sims/Jenkins to break camp with the big league club or stay in the minors. Personally, I think it would be best to let them stay in the minors to gain additional seasoning. Then when someone in the rotation gets injured/traded, then you move one of the two up to take his spot.

[Carp]

It is possible Sims and Jenkins would do well in the majors. But it is unlikely given their level of minor league success and experience. Hanson's minor league track record was much more impressive leading up to his promotion to the majors. I believe he was also very highly ranked by the various prospects lists before he made his ML debut. Teheran had a more up and down path through the minors, but his general trajectory and rankings on the prospect lists were also on a much higher plane than either Jenkins or Sims.

Now I think the recent reports on Sims are very promising. He could be breaking out. But the usual caveat about sss applies.

I do agree it's unlikely. The original point I was trying to argue was against Gov's statement that the real "high end" pitching prospects were 3-4 years away. I would consider both Jenkins and Sims high end prospects and both are essentially MLB ready now.

[nsacpi]

We do have a large group who will likely be pitching in AAA and AA who could develop into useful major league starters: Foltynevich, Gant, Jenkins, Williams Perez, Weber, Sims, Janas, Barker, Bird, Thurman. Plus Banuelos who is out of options and will probably be in the ML pen next year and Winkler who as a Rule 5 pick has to be kept on the ML roster for a while. There is always a certain amount of unpredictability regarding how players develop. None of the players listed is an elite pitching prospect. But the more of these kinds of guys you have the better your chances that one or two turns into a useful ML starter.

[Horsehide Harry]

I would consider both Jenkins and Sims as high end guys and they are both major league ready as well.

I think Sims can be high end but he needs to find consistent control and he needs to do that in the minors (there is no sense in letting him learn on the job at the ML level and start burning his clock when the team doesn't need him to win a pennant or WS).

Jenkins I'm less sold on. There have been flashes but right now I see him as a 3.

[Horsehide Harry]

OK, I'm going to throw this out as my vision of why one more punt makes sense. I will preface by saying that ANY of the trades that I throw out might not happen - it takes two to tango. But, instead I am presenting the trades as the kind of return that I would expect. I will say that from my perspective the trades and the teams involved make some sense for both teams and are not completely out of the realm of possibility (ie no Bethancourt for Mike Trout trades).

As far as FA signings, I've tried to use amounts/years that I have seen elsewhere to keep it real as possible. There are certainly variables that could change things as a GM moved through the process but at some point you have to commit to a plan and here's mine:

1. I go into next week with the plan to move Miller, Teheran, Freeman, Simmons, Maybin and Markakis. I intend to move them all and will assume that I do, but I feel no need to give them away. I would also gladly move Swisher and Bourn but am working with the idea that they can't be moved. I would also be open to moving some young players/prospects given the right return including Olivera, Peterson, Garcia, CB, etc. I will go into where each goes when I get to trades but right now, I have cleared payroll and have about $65-70M to spend.

2. Using the $70M, I sign: LHP David Price (7 years $210M) - fall back position is Greinke (5 yrs $150M) but I prefer not to lose the pick.
SS Alexei Ramirez (2 yrs $15M with an option for an additional year at $8M), Tyler Clippard (3/$18M), Antoinio Bastardo (3/$15M), Josh Johnson (1/$3M): Total: $51.5M

3. I trade C Christian Bethancourt, RHP Terrell Jenkins, RHP, RHP Williams Perez to the Brewers for RHP Matt Garza and C Jonathan Lucroy. This is probably the biggest reach, but it depends on how badly the Brewers want to move Garza, which appears to be pretty badly. The Brewers would be shedding payroll and adding back some pitching. The Braves would be taking on $16.5M in payroll. If I can't make this happen I sign C Ianetta and RHP Matt Latos.

4. That's $68M in payroll added. And gives a ML team of:

SP: Price, Garza, Minor, Wisler, Folty/ManBan/Weber

RP: C Viz, RHP Clippard, LHP Bastardo, RHP Johnson, LHP McKirahan, RHP Winkler, LHP Marksberry (with a number of relievers in the wings returning from injury Grilli, Withrow, Simmons, Rodriguez, etc)

Lineup: CF Bourn, LF Olivera, SS Alexei Ramirez, RF Swisher, C Lucroy, 3B Garcia, 1B Terdoslovich (or cheap pick up), 2B Petersen
(That's a pretty bad offensive line up but you can't fix everything in 2016)

Now the trades of Braves ML talent:

1. Freeman and Maybin to Cleveland for RH CF/RF Clint Frazier, LH CF/LF Tyler Naquin, LH 1B Bobby Bradley, S C Francisco Mejia.

2. Teheran to Pittsburgh for LH CF/LF Austin Meadows and RH RF Willy Garcia.

3. Miller to Colorado for LH CF David Dahl, LH 3B Ryan McMahon, LH C Dom Nunez.

4. Simmons to Yankees for RH RF/1B Aaron Judge, RH C/1B Gary Sanchez, LH RP Jacob Lindgren.

5. Markakis to Baltimore for RHP Dylan Bundy (Bundy is a health risk but has top end talent).

Combined with what the Braves already have in the minors, it sets you up with quantity and quality of near ready minor leaguers. BY position:

C: Lucroy (through 2017 with possible extension), Sanchez, Nunez, Herbert, Mejia
1B: Bradley, Judge, Sanchez, Davidson, Riley
2B: Peterson, Castro, Albies
SS: Albies, Camargo
3B: Garcia, McMahon, Ruiz, Riley
OF: Olivera, Frazier, Naquin, Judge, Meadows, Garcia, Dahl, Davidson, M. Smith

SP: Price (ACE), Wisler, Folty (maybe pen), ManBan (maybe pen), Bundy, Sims, Touki, Allard, Fried, Soroka, Bird, Whelan, Gant

Then I go Pitching in the upcoming draft. I break the bank to sign international FA (no Cubans because they are over priced for value at this point).

In 2016, I don't hesitate to move Garza, Bourn or Swisher if I can get a good return. Bourn and Swisher are gone after 2016 anyway clearing another $14M plus I pick up whatever payroll increase Liberty gives me as I move into the new park which allows me to mix and match and fill holes after I have had a year to see how everything is working out (my expectation would be that needs would be at 2B and maybe 1B short term (assuming no prospect is ready for 1B after 2016) and maybe another SP.

[NYCBrave]

OK, I'm going to throw this out as my vision of why one more punt makes sense. I will preface by saying that ANY of the trades that I throw out might not happen - it takes two to tango. But, instead I am presenting the trades as the kind of return that I would expect. I will say that from my perspective the trades and the teams involved make some sense for both teams and are not completely out of the realm of possibility (ie no Bethancourt for Mike Trout trades).

As far as FA signings, I've tried to use amounts/years that I have seen elsewhere to keep it real as possible. There are certainly variables that could change things as a GM moved through the process but at some point you have to commit to a plan and here's mine:

1. I go into next week with the plan to move Miller, Teheran, Freeman, Simmons, Maybin and Markakis. I intend to move them all and will assume that I do, but I feel no need to give them away. I would also gladly move Swisher and Bourn but am working with the idea that they can't be moved. I would also be open to moving some young players/prospects given the right return including Olivera, Peterson, Garcia, CB, etc. I will go into where each goes when I get to trades but right now, I have cleared payroll and have about $65-70M to spend.

2. Using the $70M, I sign: LHP David Price (7 years $210M) - fall back position is Greinke (5 yrs $150M) but I prefer not to lose the pick.
SS Alexei Ramirez (2 yrs $15M with an option for an additional year at $8M), Tyler Clippard (3/$18M), Antoinio Bastardo (3/$15M), Josh Johnson (1/$3M): Total: $51.5M

3. I trade C Christian Bethancourt, RHP Terrell Jenkins, RHP, RHP Williams Perez to the Brewers for RHP Matt Garza and C Jonathan Lucroy. This is probably the biggest reach, but it depends on how badly the Brewers want to move Garza, which appears to be pretty badly. The Brewers would be shedding payroll and adding back some pitching. The Braves would be taking on $16.5M in payroll. If I can't make this happen I sign C Ianetta and RHP Matt Latos.

4. That's $68M in payroll added. And gives a ML team of:

SP: Price, Garza, Minor, Wisler, Folty/ManBan/Weber

RP: C Viz, RHP Clippard, LHP Bastardo, RHP Johnson, LHP McKirahan, RHP Winkler, LHP Marksberry (with a number of relievers in the wings returning from injury Grilli, Withrow, Simmons, Rodriguez, etc)

Lineup: CF Bourn, LF Olivera, SS Alexei Ramirez, RF Swisher, C Lucroy, 3B Garcia, 1B Terdoslovich (or cheap pick up), 2B Petersen
(That's a pretty bad offensive line up but you can't fix everything in 2016)

Now the trades of Braves ML talent:

1. Freeman and Maybin to Cleveland for RH CF/RF Clint Frazier, LH CF/LF Tyler Naquin, LH 1B Bobby Bradley, S C Francisco Mejia.

2. Teheran to Pittsburgh for LH CF/LF Austin Meadows and RH RF Willy Garcia.

3. Miller to Colorado for LH CF David Dahl, LH 3B Ryan McMahon, LH C Dom Nunez.

4. Simmons to Yankees for RH RF/1B Aaron Judge, RH C/1B Gary Sanchez, LH RP Jacob Lindgren.

5. Markakis to Baltimore for RHP Dylan Bundy (Bundy is a health risk but has top end talent).

Combined with what the Braves already have in the minors, it sets you up with quantity and quality of near ready minor leaguers. BY position:

C: Lucroy (through 2017 with possible extension), Sanchez, Nunez, Herbert, Mejia
1B: Bradley, Judge, Sanchez, Davidson, Riley
2B: Peterson, Castro, Albies
SS: Albies, Camargo
3B: Garcia, McMahon, Ruiz, Riley
OF: Olivera, Frazier, Naquin, Judge, Meadows, Garcia, Dahl, Davidson, M. Smith

SP: Price (ACE), Wisler, Folty (maybe pen), ManBan (maybe pen), Bundy, Sims, Touki, Allard, Fried, Soroka, Bird, Whelan, Gant

Then I go Pitching in the upcoming draft. I break the bank to sign international FA (no Cubans because they are over priced for value at this point).

In 2016, I don't hesitate to move Garza, Bourn or Swisher if I can get a good return. Bourn and Swisher are gone after 2016 anyway clearing another $14M plus I pick up whatever payroll increase Liberty gives me as I move into the new park which allows me to mix and match and fill holes after I have had a year to see how everything is working out (my expectation would be that needs would be at 2B and maybe 1B short term (assuming no prospect is ready for 1B after 2016) and maybe another SP.

Lol I usually love your posts, but you're the king of recommending these minor league trades that are completely unrealistic. As someone who follows prospects and minor leaguers and their value very closely, there is no way we're getting close to that type of value for what you have us giving up. Plus players like Meadows, Frazier, McMahon and even Judge are potentially untouchable in those organizations.

[Horsehide Harry]

Lol I usually love your posts, but you're the king of recommending these minor league trades that are completely unrealistic. As someone who follows prospects and minor leaguers and their value very closely, there is no way we're getting close to that type of value for what you have us giving up. Plus players like Meadows, Frazier, McMahon and even Judge are potentially untouchable in those organizations.

Judge is the only one on the list who is the top prospect for the other team in ANY trade. Meadows is blocked by McCutchen and the LF/RF slots are filled by young controllable cheap stars. Meadows will be traded somewhere, it's just a matter of where.

Frazier is behind Zimmer and they have Brantley at the ML level. If they are going to get Freeman or any player even close to him they are giving up one of Zimmer or Frazier no question.

McMahon isn't displacing Arenando and is certainly tradable and likely WILL BE TRADED SOMEWHERE. My trade was sending them an ALL STAR pitcher who is still cheap and under control for three more years.

AT the deadline, Milwaukee sent Carlos Gomez (1.5yrs) and Mike Fiers (under control for three yrs but already 30) to Houston for Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana, Adrian Houser and Josh Hader. Phillips is an equivalent prospect to Frazier and Meadows and Judge. Santana was similar in reputation to McMahon with McMahon being higher but also solidly blocked.

The Markakis for Bundy deal IS a stretch a bit if Bundy is healthy but his health has to be a long term question. In any case, I would move Markakis for a bag of balls if necessary to get the payroll back.

The thing is, many fans either way, WAY overvalue team players OR way undervalue them. I built the trades above based upon historical models and tried to find teams who had need, who were either contenders or wanted to be and who could part with the players I was asking for (so Colorado can give up McMahon and Dahl because they have players at the ML level that blocks them anyway), same for Meadows and to a certain extent Frazier, although Frazier could conceivably have a home at RF for the Indians (but I think the Indians need to push for a playoff appearance since they have the pitching staff NOW).

So, from a standpoint of getting back what I ask for, on the whole you may be right about certain teams and certain players. But, that's not the point. The point is that you get back quantity and quality that helps set your team for years to come.