Freeman Trade Speculation

[Horsehide Harry]

JC Bradbury, David Berri, Stephen Stefnoski, etc. have all done studies about what drives attendance and the only two significant factors were "the halo effect" (new stadium) and winning. Your general ballgame attending fan isn't following blogs to read what their GM is saying and if they are, then they are the type whose demand is inelastic that they tend to go to games regardless.

Now I'm not saying your friends are lying because I believe them that they won't go to games to watch this crap team. But I don't believe they wouldn't return to see the team if the team was good.

AND I think a good question is "Will Significantly more fans show up to see a .500 team as opposed to a 70-92 team?"

The Braves were bopping along at about 2.3M avg annual attendance over the last few years and fell to 2M this year. That's about a 15% drop. If there is another 15% drop in 2016, that laves them at 1.7M attendance. Now, the Braves in 1989 were averaging less than 1M fans a year but that was before 25 more or less prosperous years and a explosive growth of metro Atlanta. So what is the attendance floor? I would think 1.5-1.7M is probably it.

However, since they are moving into the new park and WILL get a novelty bump from that, even if they are the worst team in baseball in 2016 AND 2017, I don't see attendance falling much below 2M which is what it is right now. So, attendance, per se, isn't the concern IMO so much as merchandising, sponsorships, selling the boxes and overall valuation of the franchise.

[gilesfan]

well to be fair neither one of Woods or Peraza were going to become a solid middle of the order bat..just sayin..

You are right. Wood isn't that caliber of a hitter.

[UNCBlue012]

You are right. Wood isn't that caliber of a hitter.

But man is Wood a person 2-3 type of guy that we could build with for years...

And Peraza? That guy could of held down the leadoff spot for years. But hey, what do I know.

[Enscheff]

And Peraza? That guy could of held down the leadoff spot for years. But hey, what do I know.

Not much, according to that gem of a post.

Peraza and his horrid walk rate would have been a terrible option in the leadoff spot.

And the word "could've" is a contraction of the words "could have", not "could of".

Anyways, now you know 2 more facts than you did at the time of your post.

[thewupk]

Not much, according to that gem of a post.

Peraza and his horrid walk rate would have been a terrible option in the leadoff spot.

And the word "could've" is a contraction of the words "could have", not "could of".

Anyways, now you know 2 more facts than you did at the time of your post.

Look, the Royals won the WS with their leadoff hitter having a sub 300 OBP. I think you overrate the importance of getting on base.

[Hawk]

Not much, according to that gem of a post.

Peraza and his horrid walk rate would have been a terrible option in the leadoff spot.

And the word "could've" is a contraction of the words "could have", not "could of".

Anyways, now you know 2 more facts than you did at the time of your post.

Well then . . . what an incredibly cringe-worthy post.

[zitothebrave]

Not much, according to that gem of a post.

Peraza and his horrid walk rate would have been a terrible option in the leadoff spot.

And the word "could've" is a contraction of the words "could have", not "could of".

Anyways, now you know 2 more facts than you did at the time of your post.

Peraza also likely hits around .300 in the majors without much sweat given his K rate.

[smootness]

Look, the Royals won the WS with their leadoff hitter having a sub 300 OBP. I think you overrate the importance of getting on base.

Having success with a player in the lineup possessing a sub-.300 OBP =/= 'OBP is not important'.

Unless you were joking.

[Enscheff]

Look, the Royals won the WS with their leadoff hitter having a sub 300 OBP. I think you overrate the importance of getting on base.

Overrate the importance of getting on base? For a hitter with zero power?

I'm going to guess that you're just messing with me now.

[thewupk]

Overrate the importance of getting on base? For a hitter with zero power?

I'm going to guess that you're just messing with me now.

you got me

[Enscheff]

you got me

I "should of" known.

[Runnin]

Fredi Gonzalez begs to differ, which is even worse since he's a dunce in both thought and action.

You want your coach to be a little on the dunce side, or at least smart enough to pretend to be, which is what Fredi is. The last thing you want is someone who micro-manages every player's game or sticks his nose too much into the FO.

Just make out the lineup and remain positive and predictable. And listen to your pitching coach. That's about all you need from a head coach.

[Carp]

I guess I didn't do a good job of explaining myself. I'm not taking issue with the trade. I'm fine with the trades, especially if we can get something for Aybar later.

My issue is in the attempt to sell the trade and in the overall attitude Coppy seems to have. And yes, it matters. Dayton Moore may have been thought a fool, but he was pretty open about his plan and he never blasted the fan base. That will cause fans to turn on you, which will affect attendance and ultimately revenue. And now is not a time to be messing with revenue.

I know several season-ticket holders who are not planning to pay for them anymore. That is a problem. A GM who tries to explain things to the fan base and how they can help in the process has a chance of keeping them on board. A GM who gets defensive and dismissive is likely to turn the fan base entirely against him.

Payroll will only increase if more fans come to games. They won't, even with the new stadium, if they believe the FO is trying to lose and then attacks them on top of it. I'm not talking about me, I'm talking about the average fan. They don't get this, and the FO has done nothing to try to explain it. And now on top of that, Coppy's going to be a dick to them?

I get that. I was responding more to the notion that it was weak justification for the trade. Aybar can still be a good player, even if isn't as good as Simmons.

[Hudson2]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...-on-mlb-market

[Tapate50]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...-on-mlb-market

Not worth elite prospects? If he doesn't get a sizable return we have nothing to talk about id guess.

[Hudson2]

It'll be interesting to see what really happens during the WM's. The Astros could use Freeman and have the payroll and prospects to make it happen.

[GovClintonTyree]

Not worth elite prospects? If he doesn't get a sizable return we have nothing to talk about id guess.

That's not what it says.

[GovClintonTyree]

Look, the Royals won the WS with their leadoff hitter having a sub 300 OBP. I think you overrate the importance of getting on base.

Jeff, is that you?

[GovClintonTyree]

Peraza also likely hits around .300 in the majors without much sweat given his K rate.

No sweat.

[Tapate50]

That's not what it says.

"And while the Braves would probably love to get several elite prospects for Freeman, they would probably have to eat some of his contract to pull that off. They may not be willing to go that far."

I take that to read that at his price and current value we could not expect a team to part with elite prospects AND take on the contract. Without us eating money (can't imagine why we would) we wouldn't expect elite prospects in return.

That's not a scenario I see as likely.