If the Braves had made no trades and kept the young core

[Horsehide Harry]

Here's what you would be looking at for 2016:

1B: Freeman $12M going to $20M in 2017
2B: ? probably Peraza at $500K
SS: Simmons $6M going to $8M in 2017
3B: C Johnson $7.5M going to $10M in 17 (includes buyout)
RF: Heyward (FA) likely $25M+ to re-sign
CF: Melvin Upton $15.45M and again in 2017
LF: Justin Upton (FA) likely $22M+ to re-sign
C: Gattis at $3M (est) worst defender in baseball

About $100M without any bench

Essentially zero help anywhere near with position players, closest being Albies. And you have to believe that the team finishes middle of the pack in 2015 resulting in a much poorer draft position.

The staff would likely be:

Teheran $3.3M, Minor (hurt) $5.6M, Wood $3M (est), ?, ?

Assuming you non-tender Minor, that would leave you with $6.3M in starters with THREE holes to fill and Sims as the only real option.

Pen

Varvaro at $2M, Walden $3M (hurt), Avilan $2.5M, Kimbrel $11M, ?, ?

That's $18.5M (or $15.5 assuming you non-tender Walden) and either 3 or 4 holes to fill.

No wonder they blew it up.

[bravesfanforlife88]

now that is assuming they re-signed Upton and Heyward. I don't think they are or were ever in the long term plan. so you would actually have the $47 mil to work with from Heyward/Upton....

Now with that cash you have 3 rotation slots, RF, LF, and pen to address.....and no minor league system...

And remember the last time we needed multiple rotation spots, we ended up with Derek Lowe and Kawakami

Whole purpose was to build the minors

[The Chosen One]

BJ Upton and Melvin Upton were definitely going to be hogging up our payroll.

[Horsehide Harry]

BJ Upton and Melvin Upton were definitely going to be hogging up our payroll.

Fixed it.

That whole BJ/Melvin name change gets confusing. At least it wasn't to Caitlyn. I don't think BJ was that Brave

[Horsehide Harry]

now that is assuming they re-signed Upton and Heyward. I don't think they are or were ever in the long term plan. so you would actually have the $47 mil to work with from Heyward/Upton....

Now with that cash you have 3 rotation slots, RF, LF, and pen to address.....and no minor league system...

And remember the last time we needed multiple rotation spots, we ended up with Derek Lowe and Kawakami

Whole purpose was to build the minors

Resigning Heyward and or Upton was never in the cards. And that's the point.

[nsacpi]

I don't think it is an either or thing. There are a variety of intermediate option such as keeping one of Justin/Jason while trading the other for a young pitcher such as Miller.

[Horsehide Harry]

I don't think it is an either or thing. There are a variety of intermediate option such as keeping one of Justin/Jason while trading the other for a young pitcher such as Miller.

OK, let's do that. Trade Heyward, get the same return, resign Justin. The payroll is still well north of $110M with 2 SP holes, 2 relief holes, no RF, possible no 2b, the worst cf in the game, the worst defensive catcher in the game and one of the worst minor league systems in the game.

Wren made some very good long term moves (Freeman, Simmons maybe Kimbrel) but his misses (Uggla, BJ, Johnson, etc) were huge misses that handicapped the team for years and ultimately forced the rebuild.

[Heyward]

They could have kept Justin and still got Miller in return for Heyward.

[Horsehide Harry]

They could have kept Justin and still got Miller in return for Heyward.

True but see above. Payroll is still over $110M with a horrible team and no payroll or cheap help.

[nsacpi]

OK, let's do that. Trade Heyward, get the same return, resign Justin. The payroll is still well north of $110M with 2 SP holes, 2 relief holes, no RF, possible no 2b, the worst cf in the game, the worst defensive catcher in the game and one of the worst minor league systems in the game.

Wren made some very good long term moves (Freeman, Simmons maybe Kimbrel) but his misses (Uggla, BJ, Johnson, etc) were huge misses that handicapped the team for years and ultimately forced the rebuild.

So what is the criterion for judging the various courses of action. Estimated wins? Probability of winning the WS in year X?

[Horsehide Harry]

So what is the criterion for judging the various courses of action. Estimated wins? Probability of winning the WS in year X?

It changes depending on what type of organization you are. If you are Oakland, it's 2-5 year barren stretches coupled with 1-2 years of contention with constant yo-yo'ing between relevance and rebuilding. If you are NYY or Boston or LA Dodgers its long periods of clear contending with short periods of cratering (with associated firings) followed by massive amounts of cash and a return to relevance. If you are the Braves it should be long periods of contending with short periods of smart rebuilding IF you spend your money wisely. The wise part didn't happen under Wren.

[mossy]

I wish we could go back to that lineup. Will be decade(s) before we compete.

I'd consider getting heyward back like a Christmas present, and I think he's overrated.

[nsacpi]

Here's what you would be looking at for 2016:

1B: Freeman $12M going to $20M in 2017
2B: ? probably Peraza at $500K
SS: Simmons $6M going to $8M in 2017
3B: C Johnson $7.5M going to $10M in 17 (includes buyout)
RF: Heyward (FA) likely $25M+ to re-sign
CF: Melvin Upton $15.45M and again in 2017
LF: Justin Upton (FA) likely $22M+ to re-sign
C: Gattis at $3M (est) worst defender in baseball

About $100M without any bench

Essentially zero help anywhere near with position players, closest being Albies. And you have to believe that the team finishes middle of the pack in 2015 resulting in a much poorer draft position.

The staff would likely be:

Teheran $3.3M, Minor (hurt) $5.6M, Wood $3M (est), ?, ?

Assuming you non-tender Minor, that would leave you with $6.3M in starters with THREE holes to fill and Sims as the only real option.

Pen

Varvaro at $2M, Walden $3M (hurt), Avilan $2.5M, Kimbrel $11M, ?, ?

That's $18.5M (or $15.5 assuming you non-tender Walden) and either 3 or 4 holes to fill.

No wonder they blew it up.

If you take out Justin or Jason from the above and replace with Miller, doesn't that free up about 20M for 2016? So you would have about 38M to fill out your needs (pen, 1 or 2 starters, corner outfield). Or am I missing something.

[Horsehide Harry]

If you take out Justin or Jason from the above and replace with Miller, doesn't that free up about 20M for 2016? So you would have about 38M to fill out your needs (pen, 1 or 2 starters, corner outfield). Or am I missing something.

Keeping all other things the same, if you take out Jason that makes the starting 8 value at $75M, you add Millers $4M to the rotation taking that to 10.3M, then you add the 15.5M (minus Walden as a non tender), that puts you at $101M, then you have to add two more SP, 3-4 more Pen guys and a bench which puts you north of $110M pretty easily. You certainly don't have more than $10-$15M to spend under any circumstances, given keeping everything else the same, UNLESS you get a big bump in payroll space and you have to get at least some to be able to add anything since you are at $101M before you start.

[Knucksie]

Melvin Upton and Chris Johnson had to go. Heyward would have filed for free agency no matter what. Ditto with Justin, unless Bossman was still in town. So, scratch those names off your list.

[Enscheff]

Once they knew Heyward and Justin were gone after 2015 along with the BJ and CJ contracts handcuffing the team, a rebuild was clearly the only option.

The problem came about when the return for Heyward was a pitcher that is producing NOW, signing Markakis to produce NOW, trading for Olivera to produce next year, and then trading everyone else for guys that won't help before Markakis, Olivera and Miller are either too old or too expensive to be worth keeping on the roster.

It's like they tried to do a quick rebuild in parallel with a long rebuild, and now they aren't doing either. I see no way the Braves are competitive by 2017, so why bother adding Markakis and Olivera to the roster at all?

[nsacpi]

Once they knew Heyward and Justin were gone after 2015 along with the BJ and CJ contracts handcuffing the team, a rebuild was clearly the only option.

The problem came about when the return for Heyward was a pitcher that is producing NOW, signing Markakis to produce NOW, trading for Olivera to produce next year, and then trading everyone else for guys that won't help before Markakis, Olivera and Miller are either too old or too expensive to be worth keeping on the roster.

It's like they tried to do a quick rebuild in parallel with a long rebuild, and now they aren't doing either. I see no way the Braves are competitive by 2017, so why bother adding Markakis and Olivera to the roster at all?

There is a way to square the circle which is to trade some of the guys who played in rookie ball last season for players close to being major league ready.

[Horsehide Harry]

There is a way to square the circle which is to trade some of the guys who played in rookie ball last season for players close to being major league ready.

You can't get ANY value that way.

[50PoundHead]

Thanks for starting this thread HH. I've been singing this tune throughout 2015.

[nsacpi]

You can't get ANY value that way.

And you think there IS value in signing Price or Greinke? gmafb