Originally Posted by
sturg33
No - only looking at Major League numbers.
Miller benefited from an amazingly low HR rate. That's not likely to continue.
Like I said, his xFIP last year was 4.08. If you don't know, xFIP measures the expected performance independent of the defense. So it looks at a pitchers strikeouts, walks, HBP, and flyouts. It assumes a league average defense and a league average HR rate.
Because Miller benefited from an incredibly low HR rate, as well as the best defensive player in all of baseball, his actual numbers came in well below his expected performance. I don't think we'll see that HR rate again, and as you know, Simmons is now gone. As of this moment, our IF defense looks to be terrible. And our OF defense probably worse.