Adonis Garcia, Best Case Scenario?

[Carp]

Seriously guys...

Garcia is 30 years old and has hit 21 HRs in almost 1200 MiLB PAs, yet some of you think he can hit 20+ at the MLB level in a single season? Your argument is, "he hasn't been given a chance"? Now some of you think he will outperform Olivera?

Players like Garcia are precisely why the Braves are going to be terrible next year. He doesn't belong on a MLB roster other than as the 25th man.

To be fair, 1200 at bats isn't a terribly large sample size either. And his career minor league isoSLG is .155, which is pretty good. It doesn't suggest 20 homers, but it certainly suggest someone with 15 homer potential.

[nsacpi]

To be fair, 1200 at bats isn't a terribly large sample size either. And his career minor league isoSLG is .155, which is pretty good. It doesn't suggest 20 homers, but it certainly suggest someone with 15 homer potential.

1200 is a big number in terms of offensive stats stabilizing. Plus you have to apply a haircut to his minor league numbers to get their major league equivalents. I wouldn't completely discount his ML numbers. But in trying to project his 2016 performance I would give one-third weight to what he did in the majors last year, one third to what he did in AAA last year (with the appropriate haircut), and one third to what he did in AAA in 2014 (again with the haircut).

[Carp]

1200 is a big number in terms of offensive stats stabilizing. Plus you have to apply a haircut to his minor league numbers to get their major league equivalents. I wouldn't completely discount his ML numbers. But in trying to project his 2016 performance I would give one-third weight to what he did in the majors last year, one third to what he did in AAA last year (with the appropriate haircut), and one third to what he did in AAA in 2014 (again with the haircut).

Sure, but it's worth noting that these 1200 at bats are spaced out over 4 seasons in the minors, which isn't the norm.

I'm not saying we should expect big things from Garcia. But I don't feel it's wise to use his minor league stats as the primary basis for expectations of future performance.

[nsacpi]

Sure, but it's worth noting that these 1200 at bats are spaced out over 4 seasons in the minors, which isn't the norm.

Yes. I wouldn't give any weight to his pre-2014 minor league numbers.

[clvclv]

1200 is a big number in terms of offensive stats stabilizing. Plus you have to apply a haircut to his minor league numbers to get their major league equivalents. I wouldn't completely discount his ML numbers. But in trying to project his 2016 performance I would give one-third weight to what he did in the majors last year, one third to what he did in AAA last year (with the appropriate haircut), and one third to what he did in AAA in 2014 (again with the haircut).

Just using simple rudimentary math here, but if you use ~600 ABs as a full major league season and use his most recent performance since it should be more reflective of power typically being the last tool to develop, why would you discount his numbers so harshly?

He hit 22 HRs between 2014-2015 at the AAA and MLB levels in 864 ABs, with his output increasing yearly.

Players with .155 ISO or lower last season:

Derek Norris - .153, 14 HRs
Buster Posey - .153, 19 HRs
Ian Desmond - .151, 19 HRs
Jason Kipnis - .149, 9 HRs
Brett Lawrie - .148, 16 HRs
Marcus Semien - .147, 15 HRs
Addison Russell - .147, 13 HRs
Jason Heyward - .146, 13 HRs
Jose Altuve - .146, 15 HRs


Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting bigger things than anyone else is. That said, I don't see why it would be out of the realm of possibility that he provides at least 15-20 HRs given that he's been trending upward with more plate appearances over the last couple of seasons. Even Steamer projects him at .132 with 12 HRs. One could argue that he's at least an upgrade over CJ in the power department - not that that means much, of course.

(BTW (and only to get a rise out of folks), that actually is the same Jose Altuve you think that is with the same ISO and more HRs than Heyward last season.)

[clvclv]

Yes. I wouldn't give any weight to his pre-2014 minor league numbers.

Just answered my question pretty much.