The Death Spiral of the Olivera Deal

[striker42]

Let's take a look at the timeline of Olivera as a Brave

Jul 30-Braves trade for Olivera and say they expect him to be in the majors in a couple weeks.

Aug 13- Olivera plays his first game for a Braves affiliate, the GCL Braves

Aug 17- Olivera goes to Rome

Aug 20- Olivera plays his first game in Gwinnett

Aug 30- Olivera plays his last game in Gwinnett. As a Brave in the minors he had 10 hits in 56 ABs (.178 BA) including .231 in Gwinnett.

Sep 1- Olivera makes his major league debut! Goes 0-4 with a K

Oct 4- After sitting for 3 games, Olivera plays his last game of the season. He ends the year hitting .253 with a .310 OBP and .405 SLG with 5 BBs, 12 Ks, and 2 HRs. Olivera also committed 4 errors and posted a .905 fielding %.

Oct 5- Braves announce Hector Olivera will play 6 weeks of winter ball in Puerto Rico where he'll be working with Braves coaches on hitting. Coppolella said "You'll see him get better and better"

Oct 30- Braves say they want Olivera to play left field in winter ball

Nov 20- Kevin Seitzer says he was impressed by Olivera in Puerto Rico. Olivera is hitting .235 with a .304 OBP and only 2 XBHs.

Nov 30- Olivera is released by the Puerto Rico Caguas. During his stint there he hit .275 with just 2 doubles and a .646 OPS in 18 games. In his last 10 games with them he hit just .216 with no XBH and a .509 OPS. No reason was given for the release.



So, here we are. When we traded for Olivera the Braves gave the impression that they expected him to be in the majors tearing the cover off the ball in a couple of weeks and manning the hot corner for years to come. Instead he struggled against minor league pitching, was promoted to the majors over a month after the trade, then struggled in the majors.

Then they sent him to winter ball to learn to play LF and try to figure out how to hit again. He struggles even worse in winter ball. He's finally released a month after starting, short of the 6 weeks the Braves said they wanted him to play.

This just keeps looking worse and worse. It's a death spiral. I think the Braves realized that Olivera will never be able to play 3B successfully and are desperate to find a place to plug him in. In LF he has a fraction of the value he would at 3B.

That Olivera would be released by his winter ball team is a bit odd. He was probably only originally planning to play another couple of weeks anyway. Either the Braves decided he had struggled enough and pulled the plug before his confidence sunk lower, he got hurt, or his team just didn't want to fool with him anymore.

I'm to the point where I'm ready to write Olivera off and consider anything we get from him to be a bonus.

[Enscheff]

Yeah, Olivera is certainly looking like a dud. Even if Wood ends up with arm issues and Peraza is nothing more than a utility guy, the Braves may have really screwed up with this deal.

While I understand acquiring Olivera as a "win soon" gamble (even if it ends up flopping), I don't understand that move in conjunction with the Simmons move...which is a "win later" move. This whole rebuild has been very inconsistent and disjointed, and that's what concerns me the most.

I hope I'm wrong and Olivera tears it up next year.

[bravesfanMatt]

Let's take a look at the timeline of Olivera as a Brave

Jul 30-Braves trade for Olivera and say they expect him to be in the majors in a couple weeks.

Aug 13- Olivera plays his first game for a Braves affiliate, the GCL Braves

Aug 17- Olivera goes to Rome

Aug 20- Olivera plays his first game in Gwinnett

Aug 30- Olivera plays his last game in Gwinnett. As a Brave in the minors he had 10 hits in 56 ABs (.178 BA) including .231 in Gwinnett.

Sep 1- Olivera makes his major league debut! Goes 0-4 with a K

Oct 4- After sitting for 3 games, Olivera plays his last game of the season. He ends the year hitting .253 with a .310 OBP and .405 SLG with 5 BBs, 12 Ks, and 2 HRs. Olivera also committed 4 errors and posted a .905 fielding %.

Oct 5- Braves announce Hector Olivera will play 6 weeks of winter ball in Puerto Rico where he'll be working with Braves coaches on hitting. Coppolella said "You'll see him get better and better"

Oct 30- Braves say they want Olivera to play left field in winter ball

Nov 20- Kevin Seitzer says he was impressed by Olivera in Puerto Rico. Olivera is hitting .235 with a .304 OBP and only 2 XBHs.

Nov 30- Olivera is released by the Puerto Rico Caguas. During his stint there he hit .275 with just 2 doubles and a .646 OPS in 18 games. In his last 10 games with them he hit just .216 with no XBH and a .509 OPS. No reason was given for the release.



So, here we are. When we traded for Olivera the Braves gave the impression that they expected him to be in the majors tearing the cover off the ball in a couple of weeks and manning the hot corner for years to come. Instead he struggled against minor league pitching, was promoted to the majors over a month after the trade, then struggled in the majors.

Then they sent him to winter ball to learn to play LF and try to figure out how to hit again. He struggles even worse in winter ball. He's finally released a month after starting, short of the 6 weeks the Braves said they wanted him to play.

This just keeps looking worse and worse. It's a death spiral. I think the Braves realized that Olivera will never be able to play 3B successfully and are desperate to find a place to plug him in. In LF he has a fraction of the value he would at 3B.

That Olivera would be released by his winter ball team is a bit odd. He was probably only originally planning to play another couple of weeks anyway. Either the Braves decided he had struggled enough and pulled the plug before his confidence sunk lower, he got hurt, or his team just didn't want to fool with him anymore.

I'm to the point where I'm ready to write Olivera off and consider anything we get from him to be a bonus.

Have you seen any tapes of him in winter ball? what was he working on? Why did he only have ONE K?

Everyone is so quick to kill HO for this trade... give it this season before getting a black eye because of your jerky knee.. Would I have rather the FO package Wood and Peraza for someone else or different prospects.. YES!! but jeez.. let the guy get some ABs before you think you have everything figured out.

[chop2chip]

I didn't necessarily mind the initial trade all that much, but this has clearly gone south really quickly.

[striker42]

Have you seen any tapes of him in winter ball? what was he working on? Why did he only have ONE K?

Everyone is so quick to kill HO for this trade... give it this season before getting a black eye because of your jerky knee.. Would I have rather the FO package Wood and Peraza for someone else or different prospects.. YES!! but jeez.. let the guy get some ABs before you think you have everything figured out.

I would be less concerned if he was 24 and healthy. Instead he's turning (at least) 31 next April and injuries are a huge concern. There's very little reason to get excited here. The only thing we have is the fact the Braves scouts were excited about him. This is tempered by the fact that the same scouts obviously whiffed when they thought he could play third. Add in the fact that the Dodgers were anxious to get rid of him and I really have no reason to expect anything from Olivera.

[Millwood1Hitter]

No worries, he's a Scott Rolen-Travis Fryman type. He only produces when the lights shine the brightest, so don't expect much until we put a legit contender together. Basically, we need to form a team that will get us to October, and after that Hector will do the rest.

[Chico]

His move from 3B to LF does hurt his value some, but if that means he can focus on hitting, then I'm ok with it. Due to the nature of this deal and the timing of everything he ended up missing a ton of baseball which is all about repetition and timing. I'm not ready to disagree with just about every scout that's ever seen the guy play just yet.

[atl717]

Getting releases by a winter ball team is just embarrassing.

[rico43]

No worries, he's a Scott Rolen-Travis Fryman type. He only produces when the lights shine the brightest, so don't expect much until we put a legit contender together. Basically, we need to form a team that will get us to October, and after that Hector will do the rest.

This is perhaps your most brilliant, subtle post ever. You have indeed refined your sarcasm to an artform.

[Carp]

He's barely played. I'd give him more than 4 months before writing him off as a bust.

[MadduxFanII]

My issues with this trade were only partly about the specifics of the deal itself. More broadly, I think the trade suggested some less-than-encouraging things about the course of the re-build.

Phrased very broadly, the general contours of this process have been trading young position players for young pitching. I know that doesn't fully describe every element of every trade, but that has been the general thrust of the re-build strategy. When questions were raised about the lack of young offensive talent coming back in the deals, there were two responses:

1. The organization was largely bereft of pitching and needed young arms
2. The offense would work itself out. Once the pitching depth had been restored, we could swap young pitching for young hitting.

Point 1 is certainly fair enough. But I've been skeptical of point 2 since the first time it was articulated. This is now a pitching-dominated game. Offense is at a premium. Run-scoring is at the lowest level it's been in decade. Bats, especially young bats, are rare, while just about every team has flame-throwing pitchers who can put up a 10 K/9. In short, the strategy seemed to be that we would stockpile the asset there was a lot of, then, eventually, trade some of it for the asset there wasn't very much of. That seemed...counter-intuitive.

And look what happened when the time finally came to make one of those young-pitching-for-offense trades. We were dangling a 24-year-old lefty with four more years of team control, a career 118 ERA+ and a 3.12 K/BB ratio. Historically, this has been a precious commodity, the kind of talent front offices scramble to acquire. On top of that, we were offering a solid middle infield prospect whose luster, while admittedly dimmed by some measure from the previous year, was still extant. On top of THAT we were offering a couple of veteran relievers- they didn't add a ton of value, admittedly, but they do have some worth around the deadline.

And in exchange for this relative bounty of pitching talent we got back...a 31-year-old with no Major League experience, a lengthy injury record and, it turns out, serious defensive issues. That was the absolute best prize Alex Wood could fetch, and to fetch him we had to throw in Peraza as well.

To me, that illustrated what was wrong with the philosophy of our re-build. We were in a strong bargaining position, as we had the young, proven lefty with years of control who wasn't even going to hit arbitration until after 2016. We weren't facing any economic pressures- we could have held on to Wood without any issues. We were negotiating with a big budget team that needed an arm and was feeling the pressure to win a title. And we turned that leverage into Hector Olivera.

That was the best we could do, and it was the best we could do because teams are hoarding their young hitters. No one wants to give up offense any more. And I'm worried that's what we're looking at moving forward- a hoard of pitching we can't trade for offense unless we accept a steep exchange rate.

[dak]

[bravesfanMatt]

I wonder if he was hitting .380 with 5 HRs and 25 RBIs would he have been released?

[striker42]

I wonder if he was hitting .380 with 5 HRs and 25 RBIs would he have been released?

My thoughts exactly.

[Hudson2]

I'll wait to see what he does this season, but I'm not holding alot a ton of hope. If he were 25 or so then I'd be more optimistic.

[weso1]

Kind of weird that Cora won't say why Olivera was released. Could it be that Olivera is close to being traded?

[GovClintonTyree]

Yeah, Olivera is certainly looking like a dud. Even if Wood ends up with arm issues and Peraza is nothing more than a utility guy, the Braves may have really screwed up with this deal.

While I understand acquiring Olivera as a "win soon" gamble (even if it ends up flopping), I don't understand that move in conjunction with the Simmons move...which is a "win later" move. This whole rebuild has been very inconsistent and disjointed, and that's what concerns me the most.

I hope I'm wrong and Olivera tears it up next year.

I don't think I even understand the deal to begin with. You got a lot of control for cheap from 30-36 on a risky player from an injury and cultural assimilation standpoint....and dealt Peraza, whom I don't particularly like but many do, and Wood, an effective young lefty.

If you were going to break off a piece of good pitching, it needed to be for a hitter with six years of control....but from 23-29 or so. Best case scenario, this guy is fading as we become competitive in 4-5 years.

But it doesn't look like best case scenario is what's apt to happen. And yes, I agree we need to wait and see, but so far there's not one scintilla of evidence supporting the scouts' consensus.

[bravesfanMatt]

I don't think I even understand the deal to begin with. You got a lot of control for cheap from 30-36 on a risky player from an injury and cultural assimilation standpoint....and dealt Peraza, whom I don't particularly like but many do, and Wood, an effective young lefty.

If you were going to break off a piece of good pitching, it needed to be for a hitter with six years of control....but from 23-29 or so. Best case scenario, this guy is fading as we become competitive in 4-5 years.

But it doesn't look like best case scenario is what's apt to happen. And yes, I agree we need to wait and see, but so far there's not one scintilla of evidence supporting the scouts' consensus.

you guys sure do make it hard to remain optimistic.. but even the great ones will swing and miss from time to time.. if this is this regime 'bad one', then I will be happy...