Shelby to AZ for E. Inciarte, A. Blair, and Dansby Swanson

[GovClintonTyree]

Is Samardzija a bad 3rd pitcher? Is Peavy/Cain bad options for 4/5th starter? What about Heston as backup?

"The bullpen is unimpressive." How so? Castila/Romo/Strickland is pretty damn nice.

The OF will start either Pagan or Blanco because Pence/Span are the other 2 starters.

1. Yes, yes and yes. They suck. They didn't always suck. They do now.

2. Strickland was a gasoline fire in the playoffs. He was throwing BP. Every time I see Casilla, he's shaky. So yeah, I'm saying unimpressive.

3. My bad. I forgot they signed Span. A good signing.

They're very solid as a hitting club, no question. I do not like their pitching past Bumgarner and Cueto. Though that's a deluxe 1-2, I agree. In the day, I loved Cain and I really loved Peavy. They just don't have it anymore. As for Samardzija, take a hard look at his career numbers and tell me he deserves to be mentioned in the same tier with Cueto and some of the other guys who got upper teens money. I just absolutely don't see it.

[UNCBlue012]

1. Yes, yes and yes. They suck. They didn't always suck. They do now.

2. Strickland was a gasoline fire in the playoffs. He was throwing BP. Every time I see Casilla, he's shaky. So yeah, I'm saying unimpressive.

3. My bad. I forgot they signed Span. A good signing.

They're very solid as a hitting club, no question. I do not like their pitching past Bumgarner and Cueto. Though that's a deluxe 1-2, I agree. In the day, I loved Cain and I really loved Peavy. They just don't have it anymore. As for Samardzija, take a hard look at his career numbers and tell me he deserves to be mentioned in the same tier with Cueto and some of the other guys who got upper teens money. I just absolutely don't see it.

I don't understand the love affair with Smardzija but I sometimes find myself with it as well. He can be excellent one start and flat-out BS the next. 47-61 with a 4.09 ERA for his career is pretty damn bad, though.

[gilesfan]

1. Yes, yes and yes. They suck. They didn't always suck. They do now.

2. Strickland was a gasoline fire in the playoffs. He was throwing BP. Every time I see Casilla, he's shaky. So yeah, I'm saying unimpressive.

3. My bad. I forgot they signed Span. A good signing.

They're very solid as a hitting club, no question. I do not like their pitching past Bumgarner and Cueto. Though that's a deluxe 1-2, I agree. In the day, I loved Cain and I really loved Peavy. They just don't have it anymore. As for Samardzija, take a hard look at his career numbers and tell me he deserves to be mentioned in the same tier with Cueto and some of the other guys who got upper teens money. I just absolutely don't see it.

Shark is projected to throw 195 IP with a 3.4 ERA. Teams would die for that as a 3.
PEavy 153 IP at 3.75 ERA
Cain 130 IP at 3.9 ERA (might be rich, but have Heston as backup)

Strickland didn't even pitch in the playoffs last year. He did the year before and Harper took him deep. I'm not sure why you would ignore 2015 bc of a 5 game playoff series.

Every time you watch Castilla, he's shaky. Well, there you go. SOlved.

[GovClintonTyree]

Shark is projected to throw 195 IP with a 3.4 ERA. Teams would die for that as a 3.
PEavy 153 IP at 3.75 ERA
Cain 130 IP at 3.9 ERA (might be rich, but have Heston as backup)

Strickland didn't even pitch in the playoffs last year. He did the year before and Harper took him deep. I'm not sure why you would ignore 2015 bc of a 5 game playoff series.

Every time you watch Castilla, he's shaky. Well, there you go. SOlved.

Those projections are utter crap. It's ok, we disagree. That's why they play the games.

[GovClintonTyree]

Shark is projected to throw 195 IP with a 3.4 ERA. Teams would die for that as a 3.
PEavy 153 IP at 3.75 ERA
Cain 130 IP at 3.9 ERA (might be rich, but have Heston as backup)

Strickland didn't even pitch in the playoffs last year. He did the year before and Harper took him deep. I'm not sure why you would ignore 2015 bc of a 5 game playoff series.

Every time you watch Castilla, he's shaky. Well, there you go. SOlved.

This is where you tell my observations are completely subjective and your made-up 2016 numbers are more objective, right?

[praeceps93]

This is where you tell my observations are completely subjective and your made-up 2016 numbers are more objective, right?

I got you.

RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE YOU'RE WRONG RABBLE PROJECTIONS RABBLE!

There. Covered our bases.

[chop2chip]

This is where you tell my observations are completely subjective and your made-up 2016 numbers are more objective, right?

Well one is grounded in statistical analysis and the other is... Well, like your opinion, man.

[GovClintonTyree]

Well one is grounded in statistical analysis and the other is... Well, like your opinion, man.

So a guy with a 4.97 ERA who gives up a league leading 29 bombs and a league-leading 228 hits, a career ERA north of four projects to a 3.4 ERA because of statistical analysis?

I have a head analyst at work who tells me she can make numbers say anything she wants them to say.

I do look at stats but I don't only look at stats and I try to think critically about them rather than taking them at face value.

[GovClintonTyree]

Well one is grounded in statistical analysis and the other is... Well, like your opinion, man.

Let me ax you a question. Do you agree with this statistical analysis that projects that Samardzija, Cain and Peavy will all finish with sub-4.00 ERAs?

[GovClintonTyree]

Shark is projected to throw 195 IP with a 3.4 ERA. Teams would die for that as a 3.
PEavy 153 IP at 3.75 ERA
Cain 130 IP at 3.9 ERA (might be rich, but have Heston as backup)

Strickland didn't even pitch in the playoffs last year. He did the year before and Harper took him deep. I'm not sure why you would ignore 2015 bc of a 5 game playoff series.

Every time you watch Castilla, he's shaky. Well, there you go. SOlved.

I just looked it up. Strickland gave up 6 homers in 8.1 innings in the 2014 playoffs. Six.

You can make your numbers say whatever you want. But yeah, I think that matters and is part of why I think that bullpen is sketchy.

[chop2chip]

So a guy with a 4.97 ERA who gives up a league leading 29 bombs and a league-leading 228 hits, a career ERA north of four projects to a 3.4 ERA because of statistical analysis?

I have a head analyst at work who tells me she can make numbers say anything she wants them to say.

I do look at stats but I don't only look at stats and I try to think critically about them rather than taking them at face value.

1) He had an ERA of 2.99 the year before. Seems reasonable that an unbiased computer model could spit out that outcome.

(2) Your colleague is smart, but what she's referring to is not the same thing as this. Now, if Zips was tinkering with their assumptions in the model until it produced a favorable outcome for Shark then you would have a valid explanation.

(3) I agree with you that stats without context aren't enough to draw conclusions, but you don't have a monopoly on critical thinking. I didn't see anyone here just taking stats for face value.

[chop2chip]

Let me ax you a question. Do you agree with this statistical analysis that projects that Samardzija, Cain and Peavy will all finish with sub-4.00 ERAs?

Peavy and Shark, yes. Cain, no (injury concerns).

[GovClintonTyree]

1) He had an ERA of 2.99 the year before. Seems reasonable that an unbiased computer model could spit out that outcome.

(2) Your colleague is smart, but what she's referring to is not the same thing as this. Now, if Zips was tinkering with their assumptions in the model until it produced a favorable outcome for Shark then you would have a valid explanation.

(3) I agree with you that stats without context aren't enough to draw conclusions, but you don't have a monopoly on critical thinking. I didn't see anyone here just taking stats for face value.

So what does ZIPS put into their model? Do you know? Do they publish their methodology?

That comment was actually directed at giles and just in this one particular instance. I didn't mean to imply that I had a monopoly on critical thinking. I have noticed that when stat time comes, I tend to cite raw numbers where others cite numbers that have been refined, like WAR or FIP. Probably and old school/new school thing.

But I know without a whole lot of refinement what giving up 228 hits and 29 dingers in 214 innings means - and that he had a good year the year before, and that he'll probably be somewhere in the middle, and that the big park in SF helps. I just think 3.4 is very ambitious and can't see how any methodology supports it. The guy's been erratic his entire career and very hittable for much of it.

[smootness]

So you admit you think he'll be somewhere in the middle of 2.99 and 4.97, and you think the park in SF will help...but you think 3.4 is way off where he'll finish?

Neither raw numbers nor more analytical numbers are bad. Raw numbers generally give you a good idea of what actually happened, while the more analytical numbers are presumably a better predictor going forward. These ZIPS models should all be given consideration while taken with a grain of salt.

[UNCBlue012]

Shark will be much better than last year, in my opinion. A lot of it comes down to the ballpark, which will help him giving up many dingers.

I think he'll probably have an ERA around 3.6 or so, which is solid.

[thewupk]

Even without getting into analytics I don't think it would be hard to come to the conclusion that his ERA will be be much improved over last year after coming back to the NL and espeically going to that park.

[Heyward]

DBacks are good, but have concerns.

Rotation depth, lineup due to trades, and depth overall.

Dodgers rotation can be very good depending on health and how Maeda plays out, Giants rotation is pretty nasty though with Bum, Cueto, JSam, and others.

Would be surprised if LAD or SF dont win the division.

I'd probably have LA/SF around 90-95 wins, and Arz in the 84-86 win range.

[nsacpi]

Interesting to see Fangraphs rate the Diamondbacks as having the second worst off-season.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/gradi...-all-30-teams/

[smootness]

Interesting to see Fangraphs rate the Diamondbacks as having the second worst off-season.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/gradi...-all-30-teams/

So the D-Backs had the 2nd worst offseason, largely on the back of that one trade, and we had the 5th best, almost solely because of that trade. That's how lopsided that trade was.

[nsacpi]

So the D-Backs had the 2nd worst offseason, largely on the back of that one trade, and we had the 5th best, almost solely because of that trade. That's how lopsided that trade was.

I agree with the way they assessed our off-season, including the view that the we not get that good a return for Simmons.