Scouting report on Swanson/Blair

[smootness]

I haven't seen this posted elsewhere yet.

First, let me preface this by saying this is from Dan Farnsworth, who is the same guy who decided John Gant is our 2nd best prospect and Ryan Weber is our #5. So....there's that. But he is actually considered to be a phenomenal evaluator of hitters, and regardless, it's interesting to see how he values these guys.

Here's the link: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evalu...-miller-trade/

So he considers Swanson to be, right now, a plus defender, at least average baserunner, and average hitter with potential to become a plus-plus defender, plus baserunner, and plus-plus hitter. Um....ok. And he gives him a chance to be in Atlanta by the end of this year. Again, take it with a grain of salt if you want, but that has to get you excited. He has a high floor and a high ceiling, and based on this, I would say it's highly likely he sticks at SS and Albies eventually moves to 2B.

He also considers Blair a future 3/4 with the chance to become a 2.

I'll take it all day.

[Russ2dollas]

it will be very interesting to see development vs service time management vs being good in 17 or 18.

I think if you want to be good in 17, then guys like Swanson, Blair, Newcombe, and Mallex have to play in 16. You might add in Sims, Albies, Jenkins etc. If you think the guy is going to be a major contributor on a 17 team that will flirt with the playoffs (big IF I know, but what the front office keeps saying), then that guy has to play in 16 right? I know guys like Kris Bryant came up after the super 2 deadline and raked, but that is fitting one guy into your team.

If the Braves are serious about 17 and they don't play guys this year, then they are looking at a team with how many rookies? At least 5 right?

[bravesfanMatt]

I can't post with quotes today.. website is acting wacky for me today..

Russ, I think some of those guys you mentioned will get September call ups.. And I think the FO thinks they will be competitive in 17.. maybe not contenders.. but surely competitive.. then 18 is when we should really see a move.. battling for division by then.. hopefully in 2019 + we will be looked at as WS favorites..

[Heyward]

Yes

[smootness]

I think our goal for 2017 should be about a .500 team. I didn't think you need to truly compete in order to get people to the games with the new stadium.

And guys like Swanson and Newcomb will be a draw themselves once they came up, regardless of how ready they are to really contribute to a competitive team. So having said that, I would personally hold Swanson back at least until next year. The big question, though, is whether you want to open the year with him and market a good bit around him with the new stadium opening or hold him back a little longer and trust that the stadium will sell itself the first month or two. Then you could potentially add Swanson later and keep those people coming, even if the team isn't great.

I think Blair, Newcomb, and Mallex will see time in 2016 only because I don't think we will be able to hold them back any longer. I want guys to be called up when they're ready, with some eye toward service time. And those guys should all be ready at least at some point in 2016. Blair could even break camp in the rotation.

[jimsnores]

Smootness:

"I want guys to be called up when they're ready, with some eye toward service time. And those guys should all be ready at least at some point in 2016. Blair could even break camp in the rotation."

Agreed, especially now. Everyone realizes the importance of service time. It smacked everyone in the face when JHey was traded. That being said though, at some point, you have to move forward with what you expect to compete with, if you want to compete as soon as you can. Also, developing excitement in the fan base has importance.

[rico43]

Both Newcomb and Blair could be in the rotation by June, Sims and Jenkins also getting a look by August.

I'm all in favor of Swanson getting an early taste of the majors -- this guy could, easily enough, be our next Chipper, and the sooner they lock him for a deal that eats up his arbitration years, I'm for it, once he makes the show.

What we see of Albies this spring will tell his tale more than anything. Same with Mallex.

[smootness]

I actually think Jenkins will be ahead of Newcomb in terms of an ETA. Jenkins. Jenkins pitched in AAA last year, and I think we'll keep Newcomb down until he starts improving his BB rate.

I think Newcomb is clearly ahead of Jenkins on the overall organizational depth chart moving forward, but I think it's likely Jenkins hits the majors first. In fact, I don't think it's completely out of the question that both Jenkins and Blair could start the year in the rotation. I think there's at least a 50/50 chance that one of them will.

[Heyward]

This is from Kiley McDaniel

3. Aaron Blair, RHP
Current Level/Age: AA/22.2, 6’5/230, R/R
Drafted: 36th overall (sandwich round) in 2013 out of Marshall by ARZ for $1.435 million bonus
Fastball: 50/55, Curveball: 45/50+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 45/50

Scouting Report: Blair has slowly improved since being drafted last June that some in the organization have him as the #1 prospect in the system. He isn’t as flashy as Bradley and Shipley, but Blair has three pitches that all have been plus at times for scouts and are all regularly above average. One scout compared Blair’s ability to get heavy life on pitches to Roy Halladay, in part due to how big Blair’s hands are.

Another scout compared him as an overall pitcher to John Lackey and Lance Lynn, as a big and unspectacular but steady #3/4 starter that outperforms many more heralded talents. As noted in Bradley’s report, some think Blair may jump past the incredibly talented Bradley to settle in a big league rotation spot first amongst this top group of three Arizona prospects.

Blair sits 90-94 and has been up to 96 mph this year, with scouts noting the arm speed got a notch better this season, helping all of his stuff play up. He’s a control over command guy that throws a lot of strikes and the heavy life on his fastball helps induce weak contact rather than an excessive amount of strikeouts. Blair’s curveball was the concern as an amateur and early in his pro career, but now consistently shows average with some grading it as high as plus at times. His changeup has been his go-to off-speed pitch for years at is also consistently above average.

Summation: As you can see in the projected path, I think Blair starts the year in AA, gets a taste of the big leagues and sticks. He’s the kind of guy that these sorts of lists consistently underrate and then he never gets re-ranked when he proves us wrong as a big league asset. Consider this an advance apology for ranking him 3rd. Sorry, Aaron, but you need people like me that don’t learn from history and tell you that you aren’t good enough.