Possibly, they are very very young and a long ways out. That's far from a givenOriginally Posted by bravescountry
Possibly, they are very very young and a long ways out. That's far from a given
Ivermectin Man
The way that players pick teams is interesting. I just wonder what allows San Diego to lock up 6 of the top 11 in a somewhat open market where teams have similar resources (the bidding teams).
Are they expected to spend more than the Braves?
Why would Atlanta sign #1 and then pass on the next few top rated guys? Organizational scouting? Too much in Maitan? Just curious. I might rather have 6 of the top 11 then #1 and four 15-30 guys.
I'd rather have a "generational talent" than multiple prospects any day of the week.
bravos4evr (06-29-2016), clvclv (06-29-2016)
I THINK it has a lot to do with the trainers.. They are tied with teams from the past. I'm not completely sure though.
Well, teams start solidifying these agreements a year or so before they sign. So it's likely that a) our list doesn't look exactly like this one, and b) where it does look similar, the guys we agreed with a year ago didn't progress the way we expected/hoped. So it's not like we said, 'Eh, we don't really care about the 2-15 group.' It's more likely that we said, 'Here are guys we really like who we think will be top prospects that we can sign.' A year later, things can change.
It looks like the Padres have done a great job of scouting and have probably gotten lucky as well.
So the Braves will not be getting any other top 15 Int'l prospect beyond Maitan. Another case of runaway expectations creating a little bit of a letdown. Of course, getting Maitan should offset all of that, but expections are now considerably lower than a historic haul. On the plus side, they won't be going so many millions over budget if these players don't command Top 10 bonuses.
Coach_Chris (06-30-2016), jpx7 (06-30-2016)
Some of them are probably still going to get higher bonuses than where they're currently ranked. Again, we started solidifying this stuff a while back. And we probably like these guys more than these lists do.
Always something to remember - Albies wasn't a top 30 guy. I agree, though, it is a bit of a letdown to see these rankings. I expected Maitan plus at least 2-3 other top 10 guys.
Acuna wasn't top 30 either. I agree with most of the talk that it is somewhat disappointing, but obviously things still look really good.
The other aspect that's weird with this is something Ben Badler mentioned the other day. When a lot of these deals are agreed to quietly, then scouts start to see less of each kid when they already have a deal in place. Then it obviously becomes harder to accurately rank someone's progress when you're barely seeing them.
We should all keep a few things in mind:
1) There is a lot of variance in the evaluations of these kids. We could have a number of prospects that some evaluators would tab as top 15 players in this class. We're likely to give Gutierrez one of the top bonuses in the class and Cabrera one of the highest for pitchers in the class. Whether the fact that these bonuses are at odds with rankings is due to the prospects not progressing like we hoped or due to our evaluations being different remains to be seen, but to some extent we need to trust our amateur scouts.
Also, we have a very limited view of the scouting of these kids. Like Smoot mentioned, a lot of the contacts these sites have would not have seen certain prospects much this year. This works both ways, of course, but it leads to more confusion between rankings and the actual talent of the kids that are being signed.
2) The Padres will probably outspend us by quite a bit on the Cuban market at the outset, which honestly might not be the worst thing. I'm not in the camp that thinks that Cubans are snake oil, however I do think the market itself is currently inefficient and will need to adjust before teams start finding value again. If Lazarito came from a different island in the Caribbean, he'd be looking at a bonus around $1-3 million, which is a fraction of what it was speculated he would cost, even on the low end estimates. Maybe we make a splash in the Cuban market, but if the difference between the Padres and Braves classes ends up being talented kids that are simply overpriced and the Padres have more resources to afford to overpay, then so be it.
3) We're still signing the top prospect in the class and a handful of top 30 guys. That's a win no matter what the other teams do. We were never going to be the only team to do this, so fretting over whether or not the Padres did better is a bit ridiculous. These kids flame out and we have no idea which ones will be the ones who do. Getting a bunch of them that have the talent to command 6 and 7 figure bonuses is a great way to beat the odds, though.
Last edited by mqt; 06-29-2016 at 09:19 PM.
50PoundHead (06-30-2016), clvclv (06-29-2016), jpx7 (06-30-2016), smootness (06-29-2016)
It's always important to remember that teams start making connections with these players when they are 14- and 15-year-olds. A lot of physical development (or non-development) can take place at that age and often the deal is done well before the kid turns 16. It's a dicey market.
Last edited by 50PoundHead; 06-30-2016 at 09:25 AM.
48 HOURS!
bravescountry (06-30-2016), Coach_Chris (06-30-2016), Garmel (06-30-2016), mqt (06-30-2016), The Chosen One (06-30-2016)
Hypothetically, down the road, could we expect Maitan to be moved to 3rd, while keeping Swanson at short?
3B is where most people are projecting Maitan long term. Hopefully his bat winds up playing either at 3B or in the corner OF, whereever we need him.
Knucksie (07-01-2016)
I've read several times that Maitan may fill out more and have to be moved to 3rd.
Knucksie (07-01-2016)
Will most of these guys actually sign on July 2nd? I feel like I've seen that the Cuban's sometimes stretch it out well into the period before.
That appears to be the buzz right now for some of the Cuban prospects. If I remember correctly, a couple of the high profile prospects from Cuba have not yet been cleared, and some others don't have deals in place yet. I think a few will sign on July 2, but there will still be a lot of players left after that.
The more traditional J2 prospects will likely sign right away.
I'm still holding out hope that Coppy lands an unexpected big fish or two.....
At the end of the day, nobody is going to complain when we land the top player available.
me too.. Coppi seems a bit egotistical in the sense that he wants to be looked at as the best.. hopefully he finds a little more money laying around to go even bigger than we all had hoped!!
I'd say getting Maitin, the crown jewel, even if we got no one else, is more than enough to puff your chest out.
Knucksie (07-01-2016)
Fangraphs scouting reports on prospects 11-25: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/july-...ospects-11-25/
Here are the scouting reports on the guys we are linked to-
SS Yunior Severino:
Severino has alarming raw power for his size. He has above-average bat speed, loose wrists and comfortable, natural loft in the swing. He’s twitchier and more explosive in the batter’s box than he is in the field, where his footwork and actions can be slow and tentative. Some scouts think he’ll have to move to either second or third as he fills out. If that’s the case, then Severino will have to outperform my expectations for the bat to profile as a regular. If he can stay at short, however — and I think there’s a decent chance he can — then not only is he an everyday player but he’ll become one of the class’s more interesting prospects. He’s expected to sign with the Braves for about $2 million.
RHP Juan Contreras:
Contreras has the best arm acceleration in the class, touching 97 with his fastball and sitting 92-95. There is some effort to the delivery but Contreras’s lower half is long and strong and the arm works fine. Contreras’ slider is of the Brad Lidge variety in that it has almost purely vertical movement to it, a result of Contreras’ vertical arm slot. It flashes plus. It’s hard to generate any changeup movement from a slot like Contreras’ and because of this, his size (a slightly built 6-foot-1) and the effort in his delivery, there’s a good chance he’s only a reliever. He’s expected to sign with Atlanta.
RHP Yefri del Rosario
Del Rosario is Diet Juan Contreras. A little smaller, a little less velocity, and a little more chance that he ends up in a bullpen. He’s been up to 94 and flashed a plus slider in the 82-83 mph range. He is athletic and has tremendous arm acceleration (you have to if you’re touching 94 and about 5-11) and those kind of pitchers typically develop changeups, so there’s a chance del Roasrio ends up with a starter’s repertoire. Whether his body will be able to withstand that kind of workload is harder to predict.
C Abrahan Gutierrez:
Gutierrez was one of the class’s bigger names early in the process because his body matured sooner than his peers’. The Braves were in hot pursuit of him early on and he’s expected to sign with them. Though he’s lost some mobility in recent months, Gutierrez has enough defensive skill to remain at catcher long term provided he keeps his body in check and remains mobile. The concerns surrounding his movement skills have grown but he doesn’t turn 17 until Halloween and a pro conditioning program should help. He has average raw arm strength that plays down because of how long it take Gutierrez to rise from his crouch but that should be cleaned up, at least a bit, with instruction. Offensively, Gutierrez has some pull power because of raw strength in his hands but lacks exceptional bat speed. He might never be more than a 40 hitter with 45 game power but if he can catch that will play.
50PoundHead (06-30-2016), jpx7 (06-30-2016), Preacher (06-30-2016)
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