GDT 8/14/2013: Phillies @ Braves

[Enscheff]

"What that value exactly is I have no idea, but I trust the guys who came up with that formula know a lot more than some poster on an internet forum who "thinks" he knows something."

So you trust the stathead that came up with WAR. But, the statheads with opinion on OBP....not so much.

Makes a lot of sense.

Just so I am completely sure I understand your argument...

You are claiming that the stathead that invented WAR (a universally accepted stat), is somehow on the same level as some forum idiot that claims "only OBP matters"? You can't see a difference between these two people, they are both just statheads? If I accept what the inventor the WAR claims, I must also accept the forum guy's opinions?

And yes, anyone that claims "only OBP matters" is wrong.

[AUTiger7222]

Changing your swing to try to hit dinky groundballs in an effort to avoid striking out is a really bad idea. I'd much rather the hitter swing hard, and hit for power when he makes contact.

Cal Ripken once said his biggest regret was always trying to avoid striking out. He said hitting dinky groundballs to second base did nothing for him or his team.

It depends on the situation. As was said last night, if you're facing Clayton Kershaw and you have a runner at 2nd and nobody out it's probably best to change your swing and hit a little dinky grounder to 2nd to get the runner to 3rd in hopes of getting him home with a productive out. Why? Because your chances of hitting a bomb off Kershaw are much less than some bum. That's the difference between the best pitchers in baseball and scrubs who should be in the minors.

Sure occasionally you do get that bomb but it's very rare.

[AUTiger7222]

The Braves have quietly almost caught the Cardinals for best run differential in the NL. Cardinals are +138 and Braves are +131.

[The Chosen One]

Statistics don't show it, but I've always felt a few singles were more mentally defeating to a pitcher than a few walks.

It can work both ways. A pitcher struggling to find the zone may lose confidence and walk someone. A pitcher giving up singles may get agitated and try to over pitch leading to more singles.

One thing statistics don't show is what goes on in between the pitchers ears.

IMO, just from watching Uggla's body language a lot from the last 3 years, I think he K's a lot on called strikes, because he isn't that confident at the plate to get a base hit, that he likes it better to take a walk to feel as if he's contributing. Now I don't actually know this for a fact, but I view it no differently than Andrelton trying to swing hard on everything to try and "force" a single. Heyward's rookie year when he took a lot of called strikes, I felt he did it because he was too cocky about the strike zone and hadn't earned it from the umps yet.

Baseball works in mysterious ways. Some pitchers get more pissed from giving a 3-2 walk, than an 0-2 single and vice versa.

I will agree with Enscheff that IMO, a single does more damage to a walk because runners like Heyward can advance on singles sometimes, whereas you can't do that on a walk. While a walk is a given, making contact leaves the possibility for an error or misplay.