Will he pick up where he left off and have a good year? What you guys think?
Will he pick up where he left off and have a good year? What you guys think?
Wisler's one of the guys I have a hard time getting a read on. He's got a full arsenal of pitches but all of them are pretty average. His slider is probably his best pitch but it's still not a dominant out pitch. The lack of any elite offering has no doubt contributed to his struggles in getting K's. Based on what he's done in the high minors and what he did in Atlanta last year, it's tempting to write him off as nothing more than a back end of the rotation starter who has an outside shot at being a middle of the rotation guy.
However, you look at some individual performances and it's kind of confusing. In 7 of his 19 starts, he struck out a batter or less for every 2 IP. But then again in 6 of his 19 starts he struck out a batter or more an inning. So 13 of 19 starts he was either getting lots of Ks or hardly any. It's confusing.
I think a lot depends on if he can improve any of his pitches. If he can raise his fastball and slider both to plus pitch level (still possible), he has the rest of the arsenal, control, and "pitchability" to excel. However, if he struggles to have a consistent out pitch, he'll languish as a fringy starter.
Personally, I'm expecting him to eat some innings this year with an ERA of about 4.20. Number 4 starter kind of stuff.
For some reason, he gives me a "Mike Leake" impression. Which - I'd be thrilled if that's how his career shapes up
clvclv (02-09-2016)
I think it's all dependent on the development of his third pitch. The change is the one that makes his fastball and slider tough to hit. They're plenty good on their own, but the change will make the difference. It becomes an out pitch and makes the others great, too. There are worse people he could learn it from than Glavine.
JohnAdcox (02-09-2016)
I've been pretty high on Wisler and his last month was a really encouraging sign for me. I hope his work with Tommy really improves his standing.
I could see a 3.6 ERA or so, which is very solid, especially if he's a guy at the end of the rotation.
I'm definitely high on Wisler. I think he's the type that can have pretty good success early in his career. But he's more limited to a mid rotation pitcher....not that there's anything wrong with that.
I think he and Blair will ultimately anchor the middle/bottom of our rotation, and I think that's a very good thing. They're both guys that I think will be able to eat a lot of innings with an ERA sitting in the mid 3's.
It all depends on his development of the change. His slider and fastball are good enough, and his control is good enough, to make him a solid MOR option. If he develops the changeup to be an above-average offering, then I'd see him with #2 upside, or at least as an extremely good #3.
He's not overpowering, so guys will likely get on base. I think the big thing for him will be keeping the ball in the park and limiting the damage in tough innings. He seemed (didn't bother to look it up) that he was the victim of the big inning a lot both in Gwinnett and Atlanta. Sounds trite, but it will likely boil down to him making pitches.
I like the Leake comparison. If he turns out to be that, I'd be pleased.
jpx7 (02-10-2016)
He's got a chance to be a solid mid-rotation starter. Plenty of value in that.
I'm excited by the idea of him getting a plus change up and being really good.
I'm hoping that he'll be good enough that we can at least get out of the scrap heap veteran starter market.
I'd trade him in the right deal but I think he's at minimum a really good 5. I'd have to look at his stats but my thoughts on his stuff is that he could be a guy that would really benefit from only going through the line up twice.
I like the Mike Leake comparison. I think that's a realistic upside for him assuming he doesn't improve any of his pitches drastically. I'm always hesitant to count on a polished guy like Wisler to suddenly improve his stuff.
If Wisler can develop an out pitch then his ceiling goes beyond Leake.
That being said, Wisler still has a floor of a long reliever.
I think his floor (assuming health) is Joe Blanton. Ceiling is Dan Haren/John Lackey.
JohnAdcox (02-09-2016)
I think Wisler will have a break out year...I expect an ERA around 3.5.
Floor is Kyle Davies. I don't think that's likely but it's still very much a real possibility. He could go any number of ways right now.Originally Posted by Carp
I think he's ultimately going to be just a touch better than Leake, but do like the comp. He's probably that "tweener" - a solid #3/#4 type on a legitimate contender who can give you a dominant start when he's got things working.
I don't see him as a reliever at any point though - too much value as a starter even if it's elsewhere.
A Julio bounceback with any of the higher-ceiling arms we've now got would make Blair and Wisler a STRONG middle pairing IMO.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
Julio, Newcomb (soonish), Blair, Wisler, Sims/Jenkins. That's not too shabby. I can see a lot of guys going in and out.
What's a realistic date for newcomb to debut?
Depends on a lot of things. If the vets we sign faceplant and Newcomb tears it up, he could be up by June. I think a September callup is much more likely. He's pretty far down on the depth chart right now.
Wisler will finish with 2.01 ERA.. his last two games were rough because the Braves already had the #1 seed locked up.. unfortunately, Wisler was the 3rd best pitcher on the staff this year....
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