I'm interested to see who on the farm people thing will breakout this year and who will spiral into obscurity. For the purposes of this, to be considered a prospect the player must currently have his rookie eligibility and be under the age of 30.
Here are mine.
Breakout Predictions:
Lucas Sims- This is a little bit of a cheat. Sims ended last season on a high note and schooled the AFL. However there's still a lot of doubt out there as to whether he'll keep it up. I think he will. I'm predicting this is the year he puts his control issues behind him and coverts the raw stuff into production. I predict he'll be a top 50 prospect by midseason, he'll get a rotation spot in Atlanta about the same time, and he'll be having people wondering if he could become a TOR starter.
Braxton Davidson- The power started to show last year with 10 HRs and 23 doubles. Still, he struggles with making enough contact which is something he'll need to improve on (and I think he will). However, 84 BBs in under 500 PAs by a 19 year old in Rome is staggering. For comparison, Heyward had 49 in similar time there. The power is there for Davidson. No one who watches him doubts that. He's also got an advanced eye for his age and is willing to take pitches. Probably too willing. I think this is the year he breaks out and becomes a top prospect. I'm predicting a big jump in power as his raw tools start to translate into more balls being driven. I'm also predicting him to become more aggressive in the zone this year. His walks will drop but he'll get more hits. You might even see his strikeout rate drop a tad if he's taking fewer strikes in the zone. I don't think 20 HRs is an unreasonable goal for him this year though 15 might be more likely.
Dustin Peterson- Peterson was mashing the ball before the bus wreck. He came back quickly but never regained his previous form. With the winter to get healthy I think Peterson takes a step forward this year. The tools are there and he had started to turn them into production last year. I'm predicting he gets back on track and shows why scouts have always liked him.
Bust Predictions:
I'll admit these were somewhat harder to do as I'm fairly optimistic about a lot of our kids. I do not put a high degree of confidence in some of these. Still, here I go...
Jason Hursh- Can you call a pitcher coming off a season with an ERA over 5 a bust candidate? Still, he was our minor league pitcher of the year two years ago IIRC and is still listed in our top 30 prospects most places. I think this is the year that ends. Hursh never developed enough of an arsenal to start. That coupled with way too many baserunners made his conversion to a reliever necessary. I had hoped that a move to the pen would allow him to feature his one plus pitch, that sinking fastball, and see some success. However that wasn't the case. I predict him to continue his struggles and to be spun off for minor value (see Gilmartin).
Tyrell Jenkins- The K/BB ratio scares me. For a guy with his stuff it should be better. He needs to find a way to increase his K's while dropping his walks or he could start running into trouble. I'm predicting he gets off to a slow start in AAA and gets passed over for other pitchers when starters are needed. He's in almost everyone's top 10 Braves prospects now but I'm predicting he drops. I still think he has a good chance to transition his pure stuff into better peripherals but I can also easily see him struggling.
Chris Ellis- I think he'll start the season in Mississippi's rotation but will run into issues. He's a flyball pitcher who walks too many batters. That's not a great combo. I don't see him falling completely off the map but he could end up slated for the pen.
So who do you guys have as breakout and bust candidates?
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Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt
