Did We Give Up on Juan Francisco Too Soon?

[GovClintonTyree]

FYI, guys have entire years that are lucky or unlucky. He strikes out a lot, doesn't walk or hit for power. His LD%should keep hima t a respectable BA, but he's not a >.300 hitter.

Yes he is! My God, he's done it in prior years, he's hitting three-****ing-forty, and he'll do it again. Your advanced metrics are for **** if they can't 1)acknowledge what's happening now and 2) have room to create a range of possible outcomes in the future.

You can't just say he's not a .300 hitter - he ****ing is! He's hitting .340! Has been before! Will be again! .290 career! Should go higher!

[GovClintonTyree]

Some people are so in love with advanced stats that they fail to realize good hitting when it's right before their eyes. I believe using the whole field is a skill. If Andruw would have mastered it then he would have been a HOF caliber hitter. Chris has a good approach at the plate and that's why he's getting the ball to fall in. He doesn't try to pull outside pitches, he hits the ball where it's pitched. I don't care what his BABIP or wRC is......just watch the guy hit, he knows what he's doing. I'm getting sick and tired of people acting like he's getting lucky. Maybe he could get lucky for a month but this has been going on all year. If anyone is making anyone else look stuipid, it's Chris Johnson that is making the stathead community look foolish. AVG is a useful stat, afterall the goal of every hitter is to get base hits.

It's exhausting dealing with statheads. Like talking to a wall. Boys, your **** ain't gospel, no matter how definitively you sling it out there.

[zitothebrave]

Yes he is! My God, he's done it in prior years, he's hitting three-****ing-forty, and he'll do it again. Your advanced metrics are for **** if they can't 1)acknowledge what's happening now and 2) have room to create a range of possible outcomes in the future.

You can't just say he's not a .300 hitter - he ****ing is! He's hitting .340! Has been before! Will be again! .290 career! Should go higher!

Johnson only hit .300 once before this year. His career average even with this year is .290

[GovClintonTyree]

Johnson only hit .300 once before this year. His career average even with this year is .290

Over four years. Two of them were .300.

Never mind, stathead. I know there's no room for outliers in your world.

[gilesfan]

Yes he is! My God, he's done it in prior years, he's hitting three-****ing-forty, and he'll do it again. Your advanced metrics are for **** if they can't 1)acknowledge what's happening now and 2) have room to create a range of possible outcomes in the future.

You can't just say he's not a .300 hitter - he ****ing is! He's hitting .340! Has been before! Will be again! .290 career! Should go higher!

Completely lost

[GovClintonTyree]

Completely lost

Lost? You're delusional. A guy that's hitting over .300 is a .300 hitter. Except in mom's basement, where reality can be anything you want it to be.

What's really irritating is the groupthink imperative around here. Don't question advanced metrics, no matter how badly they're misused, or you're a Luddite. I'm not. I just think if you look at the numbers too long, you don't see the forest for the trees.

[gilesfan]

Lost? You're delusional. A guy that's hitting over .300 is a .300 hitter. Except in mom's basement, where reality can be anything you want it to be.

What's really irritating is the groupthink imperative around here. Don't question advanced metrics, no matter how badly they're misused, or you're a Luddite. I'm not. I just think if you look at the numbers too long, you don't see the forest for the trees.

So isBJ a 190 hitter, he's hitting .190.

BABIP isnt really an advanced metric. And how is it misused?

[gilesfan]

In the last 4 years, the league leader in BABIP is Votto at .369. But Johnson should be able to maintain his .412?

[GovClintonTyree]

So isBJ a 190 hitter, he's hitting .190.

BABIP isnt really an advanced metric. And how is it misused?

Yes. It's misused.

Incorrect. It is an advanced metric.

[GovClintonTyree]

In the last 4 years, the league leader in BABIP is Votto at .369. But Johnson should be able to maintain his .412?

Never said that. Never.

[gilesfan]

Yes. It's misused.

Incorrect. It is an advanced metric.

How is it misused?

[GovClintonTyree]

Night, Giles.

[ChapelHillMatt]

It's misused because people don't use it as a guide, they use it as gospel. If someone has a high BABIP it means they aren't very good and are just lucky and if someone has a low BABIP they are just unlucky and will turn it around. Players with a high BABIP never get the respect the deserve by statheads who think it's a perfect stat. They've been predicting the regression of Chris Johnson since April because of this stat and they have been proven wrong. They won't admit it though, they have too much pride. They decide it's better to just change their argument and say he can get lucky for an entire year but next year he will be back to being terrible. What's wrong with just coming out and saying I was wrong and Chris Johnson has been incredible for us this year? Is it really that hard? Why do people think they always have to be right?

[zitothebrave]

It's misused because people don't use it as a guide, they use it as gospel. If someone has a high BABIP it means they aren't very good and are just lucky and if someone has a low BABIP they are just unlucky and will turn it around. Players with a high BABIP never get the respect the deserve by statheads who think it's a perfect stat. They've been predicting the regression of Chris Johnson since April because of this stat and they have been proven wrong. They won't admit it though, they have too much pride. They decide it's better to just change their argument and say he can get lucky for an entire year but next year he will be back to being terrible. What's wrong with just coming out and saying I was wrong and Chris Johnson has been incredible for us this year? Is it really that hard? Why do people think they always have to be right?

I don't think anyone truly into advanced metrics looks at Johnson's BABIP and says that he shoudl suck. Lots of other factors are involved. i'm pretty sure everyone who's said that Johnson will eventually come down (and he will, whether it's this year or next or the one after that) is saying that he will because he's performing at an impossible level.

Since 1945, only 4 players have had a season with a BABIP over .400. Roberto Clemente, Manny Ramirez, Jose Hernandez, and Rod Carew. Carew finished with a .408 as the high man. If you think Johnson is a better hitter than Rod Carew well then have I got the Bridge for you. Sarcastic comments aside, since the end of WWII the highest BABIP of anyone with a serious sample are Rod Carew and Derek Jeter who have a career average of .359 and .354. And Johnson is not way better than either of those 2 to say he'll be a .400 BABIP guy his whole career.

We're not talking about say Freeman, who has a high BABIP of .365. That's not out of the question that he can hang near that level, especially since his LD% is right around Chris Johnson's and he has a lower IFFB% (aka balls that are almost guaranteed outs)

BABIP is highly misunderstood because it's not something you can just look at. I forget who I had a discussion with this about before when he said Gattis was unlucky because of his BABIP and I pointed out his low LD%, high FB% and lack of speed don't lend themselves to a high BABIP and he's probably not far from where he should be.

[JCarbo76]

I don't think anyone truly into advanced metrics looks at Johnson's BABIP and says that he shoudl suck. Lots of other factors are involved. i'm pretty sure everyone who's said that Johnson will eventually come down (and he will, whether it's this year or next or the one after that) is saying that he will because he's performing at an impossible level.

Since 1945, only 4 players have had a season with a BABIP over .400. Roberto Clemente, Manny Ramirez, Jose Hernandez, and Rod Carew. Carew finished with a .408 as the high man. If you think Johnson is a better hitter than Rod Carew well then have I got the Bridge for you. Sarcastic comments aside, since the end of WWII the highest BABIP of anyone with a serious sample are Rod Carew and Derek Jeter who have a career average of .359 and .354. And Johnson is not way better than either of those 2 to say he'll be a .400 BABIP guy his whole career.

We're not talking about say Freeman, who has a high BABIP of .365. That's not out of the question that he can hang near that level, especially since his LD% is right around Chris Johnson's and he has a lower IFFB% (aka balls that are almost guaranteed outs)

BABIP is highly misunderstood because it's not something you can just look at. I forget who I had a discussion with this about before when he said Gattis was unlucky because of his BABIP and I pointed out his low LD%, high FB% and lack of speed don't lend themselves to a high BABIP and he's probably not far from where he should be.

All that is true. That said in now 1725 career PAS, CJ has a BABIP of .365. That's getting to be a pretty fair sample size.

[zitothebrave]

All that is true. That said in now 1725 career PAS, CJ has a BABIP of .365. That's getting to be a pretty fair sample size.

Never said he couldn't have a very high BABIP. Just impossible to maintain a .420 BABIP since not even guys like Cobb sniffed that level for their career.

[gilesfan]

It's misused because people don't use it as a guide, they use it as gospel. If someone has a high BABIP it means they aren't very good and are just lucky and if someone has a low BABIP they are just unlucky and will turn it around. Players with a high BABIP never get the respect the deserve by statheads who think it's a perfect stat. They've been predicting the regression of Chris Johnson since April because of this stat and they have been proven wrong. They won't admit it though, they have too much pride. They decide it's better to just change their argument and say he can get lucky for an entire year but next year he will be back to being terrible. What's wrong with just coming out and saying I was wrong and Chris Johnson has been incredible for us this year? Is it really that hard? Why do people think they always have to be right?

It depends on the level of the BABIP. SOme guys have high ones. But over .400 is u sustainable.

Joey Votto has a high BABIap, does he not get the credit he deserves?

Any stathead(or anyone) that claims a player can't be lucky for an entire year is simply wrong.

Chris Johnson has been really good this year offensively. Much better than anyone expected. But with his style of hitting, he simply will not be able to sustain the level he hit this year. And if his BABiP drops to .350ish or below, he's is ply not an asset.

[holden]

Jason Heyward is a pretty good example of the utility of BABIP.

[ChapelHillMatt]

Any stathead(or anyone) that claims a player can't be lucky for an entire year is simply wrong.

I don't see how it's possible. This is a game played everyday for 6 months. You accumulate over 550 AB's. If you hit 330 you must be doing something right. To suggest it's nothing but luck discredits the performance of the player and is a thought process I'll never understand. Once again you guys are making me glad I don't get bogged down with numbers. I couldn't enjoy Chris Johnson's play if I thought it was nothing but luck. There has to be some skill involved to perform as well as he has.

[zitothebrave]

I don't see how it's possible. This is a game played everyday for 6 months. You accumulate over 550 AB's. If you hit 330 you must be doing something right. To suggest it's nothing but luck discredits the performance of the player and is a thought process I'll never understand. Once again you guys are making me glad I don't get bogged down with numbers. I couldn't enjoy Chris Johnson's play if I thought it was nothing but luck. There has to be some skill involved to perform as well as he has.

It's not that there's no skill involved with what Johnson is doing. There's also a lot of luck as well. As far as possible to be lucky over a course of a season, of course it is entirely possible. Think of it this way. 600 PA is a large sample that should normalize most tendencies, but it doesn't. Let's look at Jeff Francoeur's career. His career BABIP basically is .300. He was almost never between .290-.320 his BABIP by season are .337 .284 .337 .274 .305 .270 .323 .272 .261

Fluctuation in BABIP year to year is normal.

And Johnson absolutely has been lucky. You dont' hit as many dying quails and seeing-eye grounders as he does on skill.