Interesting Things from the Official Site of the Braves

[jimsnores]

I realize that it's normal for stuff to start flowing out from camp as it begins, but I did find three things that were interesting today:

(1) I didn't realize that Norris had medical issues last year. That gives me a little optimism that he might be good enough to be an adequate third starter, as a best case scenario.

(2) Might the Braves actually open with Swanson, if he has a fantastic spring, as was somewhat inferred by Freddie's comments? My opinion is "no". I can't imagine them starting his clock, if only because the Braves don't realistically expect to compete this year.

(3) The reports on Man Ban are encouraging. He still may have a great upside. Most reports suggest that a solid three is his ceiling now, but I read something about increased velocity earlier. I still have great concerns about his health, but if he does remain healthy, might he approach ace status, if everything were to come together, or is that literally impossible?

[smootness]

There is literally no chance at all that Swanson opens the season in Atlanta. There is essentially a 0% chance of him playing before September, at the absolute earliest.

[jimsnores]

There is literally no chance at all that Swanson opens the season in Atlanta. There is essentially a 0% chance of him playing before September, at the absolute earliest.

I pretty much see it the same way, with it being more likely that he opens as a starter in 2017, if he appears ready. I'm not as familiar as many on this board with the nuances of when the clock starts. Would a September call up possibly cost a year of control as opposed to waiting until Opening Day 2017, or even a little later, a la Bryant and the Cubbies in '15?

[nsacpi]

(3) The reports on Man Ban are encouraging. He still may have a great upside. Most reports suggest that a solid three is his ceiling now, but I read something about increased velocity earlier. I still have great concerns about his health, but if he does remain healthy, might he approach ace status, if everything were to come together, or is that literally impossible?

I'm hoping he gets to spend most of this season in the ML rotation. We need to find out what he's got.

[smootness]

I pretty much see it the same way, with it being more likely that he opens as a starter in 2017, if he appears ready. I'm not as familiar as many on this board with the nuances of when the clock starts. Would a September call up possibly cost a year of control as opposed to waiting until Opening Day 2017, or even a little later, a la Bryant and the Cubbies in '15?

It's all cumulative. But assuming he stays up permanently once initially called up, then being called up in September would be no different in service time than starting Opening Day 2017. Waiting until a little deeper into 2017 (you need to drop it from usually about 183 service days to less than 172, so about two weeks) would allow him to gain an extra year compared to starting Opening Day or being called up in September this year. So if the Braves' plan is to have him open at SunTrust Park, then they may call him up in September. If they would rather gain the year of service time, we likely won't see him until 2 weeks or so into 2017.

[cajunrevenge]

If Swanson is on the Braves opening day roster I will get a " I heart the Yankees" tattoo'd on my forehead. Thats how unlikely it is to happen. He would have to hit .750 with homers in half his at bats to get any kind of consideration and it has everything to do with service time and not performance.

[Runnin]

If Swanson is on the Braves opening day roster I will get a " I heart the Yankees" tattoo'd on my forehead. Thats how unlikely it is to happen. He would have to hit .750 with homers in half his at bats to get any kind of consideration and it has everything to do with service time and not performance.

That's not unlikely enough to make that bet. Weird things happen all the time. What if he has a great spring AND 3 or 4 infielders get hurt? It happens.

[clvclv]

I realize that it's normal for stuff to start flowing out from camp as it begins, but I did find three things that were interesting today:

(1) I didn't realize that Norris had medical issues last year. That gives me a little optimism that he might be good enough to be an adequate third starter, as a best case scenario.

(2) Might the Braves actually open with Swanson, if he has a fantastic spring, as was somewhat inferred by Freddie's comments? My opinion is "no". I can't imagine them starting his clock, if only because the Braves don't realistically expect to compete this year.

(3) The reports on Man Ban are encouraging. He still may have a great upside. Most reports suggest that a solid three is his ceiling now, but I read something about increased velocity earlier. I still have great concerns about his health, but if he does remain healthy, might he approach ace status, if everything were to come together, or is that literally impossible?

2.) I agree that it makes little sense to even consider Swanson a candidate to start this season barring multiple catastrophic injuries during camp and don't expect to see him on the big club until September. The same goes for Blair, Newcomb, Mallex, and Sims. However, I do believe that THIS is the year that they'll be "held back" simply for service time considerations. Aybar, Norris, and the other veterans were brought in specifically for that reason. It's become uncool in baseball circles to "tank", but 2016 is going to be the only season anyone could fairly accuse the Braves of tanking - and they'd be right. I think there's very little that any of those four (or Albies) can do to see enough roster time before The Ted closes that would keep them from being Braves from 2017-2022. That said, I fully expect all of them to be on the 2017 Opening Day roster. The organization has put enough hurdles in their way - including Folty, Williams Perez, Ryan Weber, Casey Kelly, Inciarte, Peterson, and Castro to have legitimate reasons NOT to promote them this season. Coppy can still be able to look himself in the mirror after saying "We have to find out what we have in these players first" with a straight face. It won't be because they'll ever stand in those guys way, but more because they need to find out which ones they want to try to trade and which ones they want to keep for depth purposes (or to transition to the pen long-term). It just makes entirely too much sense from a marketing perspective to open the new digs with some sort of a "New Home, New Braves" kind of ad campaign.

3.) As far as Manny's concerned, I think last season cost him any shot at a long-term rotation spot here. While the door isn't completely closed, he would need to reach his absolute ceiling (and stay COMPLETELY healthy - making 28+ starts) this year. Newcomb, Fried, and Allard all have higher ceilings, and all three could be here within the next two years. Assuming Norris or one of the other "veterans" (not named Perez or Weber) is in the rotation when Folty proves healthy enough to go back into the rotation, they'll be released if they're not pitching well enough to be traded. Manny will keep his spot to see if he can finally make it through a full season. The end of the season will see some form of "homegrown" (if you include the guys we already had as homegrown) rotation - Julio, Wisler, Folty, Banuelos, Perez, and Weber, and potentially Newcomb and Blair for a start or two. I've long thought both he and Folty will be moved to the pen rather than traded, and still believe that. I think they could be huge pieces and weapons that would give us a Royals-like shutdown pen.

Blair is likely the only player who could alter those things IMO. He's the only one who has "proven" at the higher levels that he's all but a finished product. His walk rate was only minimally affected when he was promoted to the PCL last season, and his other numbers really jump out at you when you compare them to Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler's seasons in Las Vegas. If he starts the season hot in Gwinnett, they may have no way to keep him down there outside of having the #4 and #5 pitching REALLY well. I wonder if the reason that they've held that extra $10 million back that's being talked about is partly to help delay him even longer. If they can pick up another really good prospect for taking a veteran SP off someone's hands (like they did to get Touki), they'd have another hurdle to put in Aaron's way this season.

[Horsehide Harry]

I think you can justify "rushing" a prospect if you are contending. It's dangerous to do so because you could ultimately hurt that prospects long term success, but the chance to win is a strong driver. However, since this 2016 team has no realistic shot at contending for anything, there is no sense at all in rushing any prospect except those who are either out of options or will be within a year. Those players should be up with a chance to see what you have to better inform on which to hold and which to ultimately let go.

[GovClintonTyree]

Banuelos looked like money when he came up...then he looked like crap. Then they went in and removed a bone spur. That isn't a career ender.

I think there's a strong chance he gets a job and a strong chance he keeps it.

[mqt]

I don't care every single MI in the organization gets injured, it'd still be a huge mistake to put Swanson on the opening day roster. There's no reason to start his service clock right now on a terrible team.

[JohnAdcox]

I realize that it's normal for stuff to start flowing out from camp as it begins, but I did find three things that were interesting today:

(1) I didn't realize that Norris had medical issues last year. That gives me a little optimism that he might be good enough to be an adequate third starter, as a best case scenario.

I did, but only because someone on this board (I owe someone an apology, because I honestly don't remember who) pointed it out. It completely changed my mind on the potential value of the signing.

[JohnAdcox]

I don't care every single MI in the organization gets injured, it'd still be a huge mistake to put Swanson on the opening day roster. There's no reason to start his service clock right now on a terrible team.

I imagine you're going to have to look hard to find someone who disagrees with you on that, but I kinda like the idea of seeing how he responds having a little fire lit under him. From what I've seen so far, I imagine he'll respond well. I don't expect to see him in Atlanta this season. But I can't help thinking it's going to help him long term, and he'll have a decent chance of breaking in when the Braves move to the southern Chattanooga suburbs.

[jimsnores]

It's all cumulative. But assuming he stays up permanently once initially called up, then being called up in September would be no different in service time than starting Opening Day 2017. Waiting until a little deeper into 2017 (you need to drop it from usually about 183 service days to less than 172, so about two weeks) would allow him to gain an extra year compared to starting Opening Day or being called up in September this year. So if the Braves' plan is to have him open at SunTrust Park, then they may call him up in September. If they would rather gain the year of service time, we likely won't see him until 2 weeks or so into 2017.

That's about what I thought, smootness. I think that's a stupid rule, from the fan's perspective, but the PU negotiated it, so we're stuck with it. I didn't blame the Cubbies for waiting on Bryant (and it didn't come back to bite them), and I wouldn't blame the Braves to do the same with Swanson. Didn't we lose a year of Heyward when he stayed up from opening day in 2010 (as opposed to waiting two weeks)?

[jimsnores]

That's not unlikely enough to make that bet. Weird things happen all the time. What if he has a great spring AND 3 or 4 infielders get hurt? It happens.

He didn't say it was a permanent tat.

[clvclv]

I imagine you're going to have to look hard to find someone who disagrees with you on that, but I kinda like the idea of seeing how he responds having a little fire lit under him. From what I've seen so far, I imagine he'll respond well. I don't expect to see him in Atlanta this season. But I can't help thinking it's going to help him long term, and he'll have a decent chance of breaking in when the Braves move to the southern Chattanooga suburbs.

That's exactly what I think this season's all about. They're not going to run from the fact that service-time concerns are going to be part of the decision-making process. The difference in the Cubs/Kris Bryant situation are more than obvious - placing ANY of the closest-to-ready prospects on the Opening Day roster isn't going to make the Braves a playoff contender in 2016. That's entirely different from the Bryant situation where an extra win or two because of Bryant's presence COULD HAVE made a huge difference in how their season ultimately turned out.

Inviting all these "kids" to camp puts everyone of the guys who make the team coming out of camp on notice, and says to them "You've seen how good these kids are, and we're not afraid to bring them up NOW. Yes the money could make a difference in the future, but the additional revenues from the new stadium will take care of that. These kids are going to be getting playing time come September so we can get their feet wet before next season - it's up to YOU to perform well enough to keep us from having them get their first taste come June."

[JohnAdcox]

That's exactly what I think this season's all about. They're not going to run from the fact that service-time concerns are going to be part of the decision-making process. The difference in the Cubs/Kris Bryant situation are more than obvious - placing ANY of the closest-to-ready prospects on the Opening Day roster isn't going to make the Braves a playoff contender in 2016. That's entirely different from the Bryant situation where an extra win or two because of Bryant's presence COULD HAVE made a huge difference in how their season ultimately turned out.

Inviting all these "kids" to camp puts everyone of the guys who make the team coming out of camp on notice, and says to them "You've seen how good these kids are, and we're not afraid to bring them up NOW. Yes the money could make a difference in the future, but the additional revenues from the new stadium will take care of that. These kids are going to be getting playing time come September so we can get their feet wet before next season - it's up to YOU to perform well enough to keep us from having them get their first taste come June."

This, and it makes those same kids that much hungrier. And, frankly, it gives us fans something to talk about and anticipate. There's no real way to love a losing season, but this is about as close as you can get. Win/win/win.

[cajunrevenge]

That's not unlikely enough to make that bet. Weird things happen all the time. What if he has a great spring AND 3 or 4 infielders get hurt? It happens.

Yes it is and I am willing to concede there are teams dumb enough to do it but we are not one of them.

[50PoundHead]

It would certainly be nice if Banuelos could take one of the last spots in the rotation. I'm certainly not ready to give up on the guy, but realize that his health has been a concern. His stuff looked pretty solid in his first few starts.

[rico43]

There is literally no chance at all that Swanson opens the season in Atlanta. There is essentially a 0% chance of him playing before September, at the absolute earliest.

I strongly disagree. Aybar might well be very valuable to someone at the trade deadline. I see an August callup as a very plausible option. Starting Swanson's clock should be of minor concern; he's already 22 years old.