- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion

[bravos4evr]

With Mike Trout people said he was a cold weather player who needed development and might become an above avg corner OF'er or a league avg CF'er. There's just no way to know!

I'm not advocating for Ray (I'm on the Lewis train with Groome as the fallback) but it's just so hard to KNOW what guys are going to turn out to be. AND to be honest man, getting a guy who puts up 16-18 WAR over his 6 control years would be a pretty good pickup at #3. Most draft picks, even that early, don't turnout that well.

[auyushu]

With Mike Trout people said he was a cold weather player who needed development and might become an above avg corner OF'er or a league avg CF'er. There's just no way to know!

I'm not advocating for Ray (I'm on the Lewis train with Groome as the fallback) but it's just so hard to KNOW what guys are going to turn out to be. AND to be honest man, getting a guy who puts up 16-18 WAR over his 6 control years would be a pretty good pickup at #3. Most draft picks, even that early, don't turnout that well.

You are comparing a high school player to a college one there, Ray has been seen extensively and plays in a larger conference. High school players have massive amounts of development left period, much less a cold weather baseball player.

And as I said in my previous post, nobody is going to complain about having a 3 or 3.5 WAR player over 6 years. But if you are picking in the top 5 ( and in particular are a mid-low payroll team like the Braves) you need to be searching for a franchise type player, not simply a good one.

I wouldn't have a huge issue with Senzel simply because if his potential power did finally translate to actual games you could have a Votto type hitter with average 3B defense. The chance is probably small, but it's there at least. That upside just isn't there with Ray, or it's extremely unlikely at any rate. You can find guys with Ray's potential in the late 1st round and sandwich rounds of most drafts.

[cajunrevenge]

With Mike Trout people said he was a cold weather player who needed development and might become an above avg corner OF'er or a league avg CF'er. There's just no way to know!

I'm not advocating for Ray (I'm on the Lewis train with Groome as the fallback) but it's just so hard to KNOW what guys are going to turn out to be. AND to be honest man, getting a guy who puts up 16-18 WAR over his 6 control years would be a pretty good pickup at #3. Most draft picks, even that early, don't turnout that well.

I don't think that's accurate about Trout. The new York **** stains had Trout at the top of their board.

[smootness]

Under the category of toolsy unpolished college hitters from obscure 4-year college programs taken early in the first round (top 10 picks) since 2000:

Rickie Weeks
Nick Markakis
Michael Choice
Hunter Dozier

Caveat emptor. Especially those looking for the next Dave Winfield.

Yes, it is not that big a sample. Not too many such players get picked early in the first round. Perhaps there are reasons for that.

So are we just considering Kris Bryant 'polished'?

Southern and Young Harris aren't even close to the competition that Mercer plays, and Dozier never walked more than he K'd.

[clvclv]

Of course that would be a fine end result for a starter, but that's best case scenario. If we are drafting in the top 5, I want the player we are drafting to be a potential 5-6 WAR player, not a best case 3.5 WAR type player. Those are guys you go after in the last third of the first round and on, not top 5 or 10. And I don't see any way Ray jacks 30 HRs like Lankford did in his peak years.

I don't think anyone would disagree with that. However, it appears that the only players in this draft that anyone has hopes of possibly becoming 5-6 WAR players are also the two most dangerous (as well as those where we have the most system depth) - Groome and Pint. Has anyone else seen any of the recognized sources project ANY of these guys as potential future stars? Most of the reports I've seen don't project any of these players as having that type of ceiling other than the high school arms.

[nsacpi]

What college did Bryant go to.

So are we just considering Kris Bryant 'polished'?

Southern and Young Harris aren't even close to the competition that Mercer plays, and Dozier never walked more than he K'd.

[smootness]

What college did Bryant go to.

San Diego

[KB21]

I don't think Nick Senzel has a high upside. His body is already maxed out. There is really no room for growth there. He already has a thick, stocky build. He's a solid athlete, but not an all world guy. Really, his only above average tool at this point is his hit tool. I watch his swing, and there are no glaring deficiencies, but his swing does not generate much loft or power. If he changes his swing up though, it may cause him to sacrifice his contact skills, and I'm not sure how much more power it will generate.

[nsacpi]

San Diego

UC-San Diego?

[bravos4evr]

San Diego State I think. I think he was there under Gwynn before the cancer.... :-(

[nsacpi]

Speaking of san diego...I'm going to be there next week...staying at a hotel near the ballpark...just realized the braves are gonna be in town...might go to Monday's game

[smootness]

No, not San Diego State, and not UC-San Diego. He played at the University of San Diego.

[cajunrevenge]

[nsacpi]

No, not San Diego State, and not UC-San Diego. He played at the University of San Diego.

Yup. Should have added him to the list. Good counter example.

[nsacpi]

I don't think Nick Senzel has a high upside. His body is already maxed out. There is really no room for growth there. He already has a thick, stocky build. He's a solid athlete, but not an all world guy. Really, his only above average tool at this point is his hit tool. I watch his swing, and there are no glaring deficiencies, but his swing does not generate much loft or power. If he changes his swing up though, it may cause him to sacrifice his contact skills, and I'm not sure how much more power it will generate.

Physically he is similar to David Wright. Maybe a little bigger than Wright was at the same age. Btw Senzel hasn't turned 21 yet, another consideration to keep in mind.

[bravos4evr]

No, not San Diego State, and not UC-San Diego. He played at the University of San Diego.

hahaha, well crap! we had 3 legit choices and bombed em all!

[bravos4evr]

some felt that way, but it wasn't anywhere near the consensus (hence he went 25th)

[auyushu]

I don't think anyone would disagree with that. However, it appears that the only players in this draft that anyone has hopes of possibly becoming 5-6 WAR players are also the two most dangerous (as well as those where we have the most system depth) - Groome and Pint. Has anyone else seen any of the recognized sources project ANY of these guys as potential future stars? Most of the reports I've seen don't project any of these players as having that type of ceiling other than the high school arms.

Lewis has 5-6 WAR potential pretty easily as well, though he does carry a decent risk as well (Though I'm not sure his floor would really be much lower than Ray if any). All prospects carry risk in a draft though, high arms of course being the most volatile as you mention.

[KB21]

Watched my Bulldogs take down SEMO earlier. Now, I'm watching Corey Ray and Louisville. Ray's first at bat, he looked at a first pitch fastball for a strike. Next pitch was a change up that the pitcher left up in the zone. Ray laced it into CF for a single.

[KB21]

....and he promptly attempts to steal 2B and gets thrown out.