Braves Spring Training news and roster competition

[dak]

Now that the full squad has reported, thought it would be good to have a place to discuss the daily scuttlebutt from camp.

Here are a few key developments from the past few days.

Garcia will need to ease concerns about his 3B defense to earn a roster spot. If he goes to AAA, could open a spot for Swisher or Francoeur.
http://m.braves.mlb.com/news/article...-at-third-base

Freeman unexpectedly takes live BP yesterday and wrist responds well.
http://m.braves.mlb.com/news/article...ngs-in-live-bp

A few middle relief candidates earn early praise . . .

[rico43]

Has anyone seen a spring roster that includes the uniform numbers of the non-roster guys and Gant? Looked everywhere and have only seen a couple. I want to fill in our roster above before they start cutting people, but some Web sites are months behind. There are "current" rosters posted that still include Bethancourt and Marimon on the roster.

[dak]

Sounds like Kendrick and Chacin may have the edge for the final two rotation spots. Maybe Banuelos as the long man initially to manage his innings?

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. – The Braves are expected to have two or three of their many prospects make starts in the first week or so, but soon afterward they’ll settle into a rotation of five starters who will build pitch counts and innings aiming for the opening-day rotation.

As of now, manager Fredi Gonzalez indicated that five would be Julio Teheran – a lock for his third consecutive opening-day start – and, in no specific order, Bud Norris, Matt Wisler and veteran non-roster invitees Kyle Kendrick and Jhoulys Chacin.

http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/baseb...ves-rot/nqZYW/

[dak]

Another thing I'm wondering now that I look at Banuelos' Minor League stats . . . does he qualify for a 4th option year? Players that have 5 or fewer "full" professional seasons (defined as 90 days on the active list) qualify for a 4th option. He didn't play in 2013 and almost certainly didn't have a "full" season in 2012 when the elbow issues started and he was shut down. So his "full" seasons look to be 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, and 2015. So, there's at least a chance he has that extra option year.

[dak]

Bowman sees things differently than DOB . . .

[striker42]

Williams Perez is a guy who I can't get a good read on. Unimpressive stuff, average control, doesn't get a ton of Ks, but impressive minor league production and he didn't look totally overwhelmed last year. The stat projections (most nearly worthless) all seem to agree in predicting he'll have an ERA in the mid 4's this year with slightly above replacement player level overall production. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if his ERA is as low as 3.50 or as high as 6.00.

But if he can put up a 4.30 ERA and eat some innings, he'd be a good 5th starter. The problem comes with his ceiling. If that's all he's ever going to be capable of, how long do you let take innings away from guys like Blair, Newcomb, and Sims? Those guys will need to get innings to adjust to the majors.

Come July we could have Teheran, Wisler, Banuelos, Perez, and one of Blair, Newcomb, and Sims in the rotation (Norris either busting or getting traded). That would leave the remaining two of Blair, Newcomb, and Sims sitting in AAA with other guys like Jenkins, Gant, and Ellis behind them. If that's the case and Perez is posting a mid-4 ERA, I'd have a hard time leaving him in the rotation while other pitchers with more potential need those innings.

Injuries and guys busting have a way of making these issues moot though.

[GovClintonTyree]

Bowman sees things differently than DOB . . .

We don't need to burn developmental innings with Kendrick. Banuelos has looked very good to me when healthy.

As for Perez, I'm not sure he's the guy. But I do know that when analyzing pitchers, many of the usual metrics go out the window when you're dealing with a sinkerballer. Lower K/9, more hits and contact may be acceptable if everything is on the ground. Also two pitches is all they need, as long as the change (or slider) is a good one.

[dak]

Another thing I'm wondering now that I look at Banuelos' Minor League stats . . . does he qualify for a 4th option year? Players that have 5 or fewer "full" professional seasons (defined as 90 days on the active list) qualify for a 4th option. He didn't play in 2013 and almost certainly didn't have a "full" season in 2012 when the elbow issues started and he was shut down. So his "full" seasons look to be 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, and 2015. So, there's at least a chance he has that extra option year.

The info below seems to indicate that Banuelos does in fact have the 4th minor league option year.

[chop2chip]

My issue with Perez is that he can throw one pitch really well (the sinker) and the rest of his repertoire is pretty meh. That would be serviceable as a backend or long man, but he has control issues which makes his stuff play down.

I would much rather see Banuelos in the rotation over him because if you squint hard enough you can see an okay lefty starter with three pitches. Perez doesn't offer much in the way of upside.

[striker42]

My issue with Perez is that he can throw one pitch really well (the sinker) and the rest of his repertoire is pretty meh. That would be serviceable as a backend or long man, but he has control issues which makes his stuff play down.

I would much rather see Banuelos in the rotation over him because if you squint hard enough you can see an okay lefty starter with three pitches. Perez doesn't offer much in the way of upside.

Perez has a good sinker and a decent changeup. That's about it stuff wise. He's a right handed pitcher who pitches like a crafty lefty. Whether he can stick in a rotation will depend on his control.

I'd rather see Banuelos in the rotation than Perez as well. I'm not super high on Banuelos but he has a higher ceiling than Perez and early reports have Manny finally throwing without pain for the first time since before TJ surgery. Manny probably is ahead of Perez on the depth chart at this point.

[dak]

Bow with a good point on Banuelos. No mention of Chacin being in the rotation. Also conspicuously absent is Ryan Weber. Folty, of course, is a couple weeks behind due to injury rehab.

[Millwood1Hitter]

Sounds like everyone has been impressive so far in spring training. Reason to BELIEVE!

[The Chosen One]

Braves alumni in the house.

Andruw, Huddy, Javy, all instructors.

[Carp]

LINK: CBS: Braves Preview

Pretty good and accurate writeup... although they don't even mention Olivera... I think everyone has lost faith in that guy

Far from accurate. That's basically predicting no one advances their game.

[striker42]

I wouldn't call that article inaccurate but it's not particularly insightful. There are some things I disagree with. First is the fact that it calls Teheran a middle of the rotation starter. If he's fully healthy he's a very good number 2 type starter and it's easy to forget that he's just 25. Also, calling Inciarte a "modest upgrade" over Cameron isn't right. Cameron's WAR was 1.0 last year. Inciarte's was 3.3. Inciarte is a better hitter and better fielder.

But my biggest complaint is that it ignores the chance that we have someone breakout. While I wouldn't call failing to predict breakout players an inaccuracy, it is a lack of insight. We have a bunch of players who could potentially breakout this year. Peterson was good before the thumb injury, if that was his real issue then he could bust out this year. Folty has tremendous potential and only needs a little improvement in a few areas to take a leap forward. Wisler is generally thought of as a number 3 starter but him breaking through that ceiling isn't out of the question. Then there are a ton of rookie phenom candidates. Guys like Sims, Newcomb, or Jenkins could put it all together and take the league by storm.

Breakout players are hard to predict but with so many young guys standing to get significant playing time, there's a very good chance we get one or two that exceed expectations.

Conversely, this team doesn't have a ton of big time disappointment candidates. The biggest chance we have for a player to come in and underperform is Olivera. And honestly, I think the impact of that would be limited. It looks to me like the organization is already starting to prepare a bit for him busting. They don't seem to be as reliant on him being an important piece for us over the next few seasons as they were when we traded for him.

So predictions like those in that article are pretty pessimistic. I don't think this team comes close to competing but I could see it reaching the mid 70's in wins.

[GovClintonTyree]

I wouldn't call that article inaccurate but it's not particularly insightful. There are some things I disagree with. First is the fact that it calls Teheran a middle of the rotation starter. If he's fully healthy he's a very good number 2 type starter and it's easy to forget that he's just 25. Also, calling Inciarte a "modest upgrade" over Cameron isn't right. Cameron's WAR was 1.0 last year. Inciarte's was 3.3. Inciarte is a better hitter and better fielder.

Conversely, this team doesn't have a ton of big time disappointment candidates. The biggest chance we have for a player to come in and underperform is Olivera. And honestly, I think the impact of that would be limited. It looks to me like the organization is already starting to prepare a bit for him busting. They don't seem to be as reliant on him being an important piece for us over the next few seasons as they were when we traded for him.

So predictions like those in that article are pretty pessimistic. I don't think this team comes close to competing but I could see it reaching the mid 70's in wins.

The more I think about it, the more bizarre that trade looks.

[bravesfanMatt]

Braves release Ryan Kelly and David Carpenter.. reassign a few other guys back down..

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcydNzqW0AEcTBe.jpg

roster is now 63

[bravesfanMatt]

?@KevinMcAlpin
Carpenter: "its the game. They've got to make decisions that are best for the Atlanta Braves and I understand that (1/2)...

Carp contd: "but also appreciate the fact theyre trying to think of me on this. It stings, especially being back around some familiar faces"

[striker42]

Releasing these guys so early is pretty classy. When you know they don't fit in your plans it's better to give them a chance to latch on elsewhere.

[dak]

I can only assume that Carpenter just isn't going to be the same after that shoulder issue last year. His velocity definitely dropped.

Jose Ramirez seems to be a near lock to make the team if he doesn't stink up the place in ST. His upside is similar to Vizcaino's and he has 6 years of control.