Olivera is Bowden's #1 Player to Watch This Spring

[striker42]

http://espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-offi.../post?id=12184

It's an insider article but the bit on Olivera is free.

The most interesting thing is the comments made by Alex Cora who seemed to rave about him. Though I do agree with Bowden that the player Cora described is not the player we saw last season.

Any reason to have hope about Olivera not being a bust is a good thing.

[Tapate50]

To be fair, the Olivera is already a bust train has been running off the rails for a while now.

[Coach_Chris]

To be fair, the Olivera is already a bust train has been running off the rails for a while now.

Seems fair.

[Hudson2]

Olivera seems to have changed his swing up and shortened it some. Hopefully he has a very good spring.

[striker42]

Olivera seems to have changed his swing up and shortened it some. Hopefully he has a very good spring.

I hope this helps. His bat looked slow last year. Lots of fastballs popped up (what happens when you're late on a fastball) and lots of times he started his swing before he recognized the pitch, got fooled, and rolled over a breaking ball (also an issue you see with a slow bat).

[UNCBlue012]

They've all been singles, but he's hitting .429 so far. Early or not, i'll take it. lol

[Chico]

There are a lot of reasons to think Olivera is going to have a good season. Due to his circumstances and injuries it was a very long layoff. Baseball is definitely a sport where you need repetition. If he's healthy and finally acclimated he could have a very good season.

[striker42]

There are a lot of reasons to think Olivera is going to have a good season. Due to his circumstances and injuries it was a very long layoff. Baseball is definitely a sport where you need repetition. If he's healthy and finally acclimated he could have a very good season.

I think way too much is being made of his circumstances. The lines about him having to adjust to a new country, new language, having money, etc sound like excuses. Tons of players come from Latin American countries every year and adjust to baseball in the US without a problem.

Struggling to come back from the hamstring injury is a more legitimate reason for his struggles but that raises even bigger question marks. He's going to be 31 at the start of the season and has never been what you'd call durable. Taking months to come back from what was deemed a relatively minor hamstring strain isn't encouraging.

To me, if he's a better player than he showed last year, the biggest reason for his struggles isn't from adjusting to life in the US, it came from adjusting to a much, much, much better competition. Making the jump to the majors is hard even for top Cuban players. Some guys like Abreu make it look easy but those are the exception. A lot of guys struggle to up their game.

It's too early to give up on him but he also has a TON of question marks surrounding him and with the move to left he's got a lot less room for error. You can accept less offense from a thirdbaseman than a left fielder.

[yeezus]

I think way too much is being made of his circumstances. The lines about him having to adjust to a new country, new language, having money, etc sound like excuses. Tons of players come from Latin American countries every year and adjust to baseball in the US without a problem.

Struggling to come back from the hamstring injury is a more legitimate reason for his struggles but that raises even bigger question marks. He's going to be 31 at the start of the season and has never been what you'd call durable. Taking months to come back from what was deemed a relatively minor hamstring strain isn't encouraging.

To me, if he's a better player than he showed last year, the biggest reason for his struggles isn't from adjusting to life in the US, it came from adjusting to a much, much, much better competition. Making the jump to the majors is hard even for top Cuban players. Some guys like Abreu make it look easy but those are the exception. A lot of guys struggle to up their game.

It's too early to give up on him but he also has a TON of question marks surrounding him and with the move to left he's got a lot less room for error. You can accept less offense from a thirdbaseman than a left fielder.

Dude, he didn't play for like over a year. No one is saying there aren't question marks, but there are a lot of legitimate reasons why he wouldn't come out slugging in his first action. Give him a full ST, a lot of ABs, and yes, some acclimation, and then let's see where he is. You seem extremely eager to write him off.

[msstate7]

I really think Olivera will hit. My concern is if his glove will allow us to play him

[smootness]

I really think Olivera will hit. My concern is if his glove will allow us to play him

I don't think it's going to be that bad. I think he'd probably be slightly negative defensive player at 3B and probably at least average in LF.

[striker42]

Dude, he didn't play for like over a year. No one is saying there aren't question marks, but there are a lot of legitimate reasons why he wouldn't come out slugging in his first action. Give him a full ST, a lot of ABs, and yes, some acclimation, and then let's see where he is. You seem extremely eager to write him off.

I can see how not playing for over a year would lead to some rust, but I'm not going to attribute much of his end of the year struggles to rust. He'd had time to knock the rust off by that point. As I said, assuming he's a better player than he showed, adjusting to the quality of major league pitching is way more of an issue than anything else. It's a steep learning curve.

I'm not writing him off or saying there's no reason to believe he'll be better. I just don't give much weight to the idea of adjusting to life in the US as being much of a contributing issue. It just sounds a lot better than saying "He's got to adjust to playing against better players". So to me, the biggest reason for hope that he'll eventually find success is to believe that he'll eventually make the adjustments to his game he needs to in order to succeed here. I think the Braves feel that way too. There's a reason they've worked on his swing and moved him to left instead of just waiting for him to acclimate to the States.

While I'm not very confident that he'll ever be that great, I certainly hope that I'm wrong. I want reasons to believe he'll elevate his game. Because the guy I saw last year didn't look like a guy that's rusty or distracted. He looked like a guy that was struggling against superior competition. So Alex Cora raving about him making necessary adjustments is encouraging to me.

Personally, I think the ZiPS prediction looks fairly accurate. A line of .257, .329, .385 sounds about right. Maybe a dozen or so HRs on top of that.

A good comp for me would be Melky Cabrera actually.

[clvclv]

I think way too much is being made of his circumstances. The lines about him having to adjust to a new country, new language, having money, etc sound like excuses. Tons of players come from Latin American countries every year and adjust to baseball in the US without a problem.

Struggling to come back from the hamstring injury is a more legitimate reason for his struggles but that raises even bigger question marks. He's going to be 31 at the start of the season and has never been what you'd call durable. Taking months to come back from what was deemed a relatively minor hamstring strain isn't encouraging.

To me, if he's a better player than he showed last year, the biggest reason for his struggles isn't from adjusting to life in the US, it came from adjusting to a much, much, much better competition. Making the jump to the majors is hard even for top Cuban players. Some guys like Abreu make it look easy but those are the exception. A lot of guys struggle to up their game.

It's too early to give up on him but he also has a TON of question marks surrounding him and with the move to left he's got a lot less room for error. You can accept less offense from a thirdbaseman than a left fielder.

"Without a problem" is likely stretching it a bit, but many players have transitioned well - you're right.

The question is, how many of them instantly succeeded after signing for $62 million and taking 18 months off. "Excuse" or not, those are the circumstances he faced. Just a stab in the dark, but my guess is just about anyone would struggle with some rust.

Is he worth $62 million? Time will tell. It's only fair to wait until after he's had more than 79 ABs to make that call IMO.

[yeezus]

Another thing to consider is I'm sure the Dodgers and Braves both tinkered with his swing, in different ways. If he were healthy the whole time and hitting like that, I'd be more worried. But combine everything (18 month layoff, injuries, adjusting, etc) and it's not that tough to see why he wouldn't come out raking. We'll see how he does with real time and ABs under his belt. It was always going to be a "wait and see" game with him, but so many were ready to call him a bust already. We just don't know yet.

[striker42]

Another thing to consider is I'm sure the Dodgers and Braves both tinkered with his swing, in different ways. If he were healthy the whole time and hitting like that, I'd be more worried. But combine everything (18 month layoff, injuries, adjusting, etc) and it's not that tough to see why he wouldn't come out raking. We'll see how he does with real time and ABs under his belt. It was always going to be a "wait and see" game with him, but so many were ready to call him a bust already. We just don't know yet.

Tinkering with his swing and generally working out the changes he'll need to make to his game to succeed at this level seems more legitimate to me.

It's definitely a wait and see game. We don't really have any other choice at this point. The magic beans have been bought. Nothing to do but wait and hope something comes of it.

It's too soon to call him a bust. Personally, I'll wait until mid-June, maybe the All Star break before drawing conclusions. I want to see him with a full ST and a couple months of playing every day at this level.


I'm interested to see what results people will consider successful. What does he have to do to be considered a success or a bust?

Personally, here's what I'd say:

Steal- .310, .370, .455, 20 HRs

Success- .280, .340, .435, 15 HRs

Disappointment- .250, .300, .400, 10 HRs

Disaster- .230, .280, .350, >10 HRs

I think that's pretty fair.

[bravesfanMatt]

Tinkering with his swing and generally working out the changes he'll need to make to his game to succeed at this level seems more legitimate to me.

It's definitely a wait and see game. We don't really have any other choice at this point. The magic beans have been bought. Nothing to do but wait and hope something comes of it.

It's too soon to call him a bust. Personally, I'll wait until mid-June, maybe the All Star break before drawing conclusions. I want to see him with a full ST and a couple months of playing every day at this level.


I'm interested to see what results people will consider successful. What does he have to do to be considered a success or a bust?

Personally, here's what I'd say:

Steal- .310, .370, .455, 20 HRs

Success- .280, .340, .435, 15 HRs

Disappointment- .250, .300, .400, 10 HRs

Disaster- .230, .280, .350, >10 HRs

I think that's pretty fair.

I think July is a fair assessment period personally. I mean he will be 31.. unfortunately, he doesn't have the luxury to take too long to shake the rust.

[sturg33]

The issue isn't that we can explain Olivera's struggles to a whole host of things... the issue is that a rebuilding team traded two very good assets for a 30 year old who has all these questions to begin with. The fact that we have to tinker with his swing is a problem. We shouldn't have given up so much for a project... and old project at that - one who has a long injury history and who hadn't played in over a year.

Now I know I'm going to be attacked as a hater but seriously, how can anyone with any semblance of objectivity defend that trade?

[bravesfanMatt]

The issue isn't that we can explain Olivera's struggles to a whole host of things... the issue is that a rebuilding team traded two very good assets for a 30 year old who has all these questions to begin with. The fact that we have to tinker with his swing is a problem. We shouldn't have given up so much for a project... and old project at that - one who has a long injury history and who hadn't played in over a year.

Now I know I'm going to be attacked as a hater but seriously, how can anyone with any semblance of objectivity defend that trade?

I won't disagree.. I don't like the fact that we are 'changing' his swing.

But I won't defend/bitch about that trade until I see how he produces...

[striker42]

The issue isn't that we can explain Olivera's struggles to a whole host of things... the issue is that a rebuilding team traded two very good assets for a 30 year old who has all these questions to begin with. The fact that we have to tinker with his swing is a problem. We shouldn't have given up so much for a project... and old project at that - one who has a long injury history and who hadn't played in over a year.

Now I know I'm going to be attacked as a hater but seriously, how can anyone with any semblance of objectivity defend that trade?

I'm absolutely with you. The trade was ridiculous. Even if it works out and he produces the amount of risk made the trade foolish. It would be like putting your life savings into potato futures. Even if there's a potato blight and you quadruple your investment, that doesn't mean you were smart to make the move in the first place.

I agree that considering what we gave up, getting back a severely defensively limited, oft injured 30 year old (soon to be 31) whose swing we have to overhaul isn't a good return.

However, it's a sunk cost now. We have no choice but to hope for success.

[chop2chip]

I'm absolutely with you. The trade was ridiculous. Even if it works out and he produces the amount of risk made the trade foolish. It would be like putting your life savings into potato futures. Even if there's a potato blight and you quadruple your investment, that doesn't mean you were smart to make the move in the first place.

I agree that considering what we gave up, getting back a severely defensively limited, oft injured 30 year old (soon to be 31) whose swing we have to overhaul isn't a good return.

However, it's a sunk cost now. We have no choice but to hope for success.

I think the counter argument to that is Alex Wood and Peraza isn't "your life savings".

That's a strange trade in that every single player involved in that trade has seen their value plummet since then.