Sean Newcomb's Control Issues

[striker42]

I'll start by saying I'm no scout and have never been a pitcher. I'm just a guy who has watched a lot of baseball.

That being said, I watched a few videos of Newcomb pitch this morning and was looking specifically at his control trying to see if it was something fixable. My conclusion was its definitely something that can be fixed.

You'd see Newcomb go through several batters where his pitching motion was smooth and consistent. When this happened his stuff was crisper and he was hitting the glove.

Then, for whatever reason, he'd lose it. His motion would be noticeably different and he'd lose his release point. When he lost his release point he'd miss by feet. Pitches would sail or bounce. Then he'd get things back in line and he'd be smoothly hitting 95 and placing the ball where he wanted it.

I wondered if I was right in what I thought I saw so I looked into it. There was an article from last spring when Newcomb was sent to minor league camp. In it Scosia talked about how talented Newcomb is and how he just needs to find a way to keep his release point consistent and find it again when he does lose it.

Honestly, watching him reminded me of a young Kimbrel. Kimbrel did the same thing when he first came up. One minute everything is smooth, he's locating his pitches, and is unhittable. The next it looks like his motion is disjointed, he can't find a release point, and has no idea where the ball is going.

Whether Newcomb ever gets his mechanics down and is able to have consistent command is a question. But I'm pretty confident that his control is something that could very easily come along with more innings.

[mfree80]

I'll start by saying I'm no scout and have never been a pitcher. I'm just a guy who has watched a lot of baseball.

That being said, I watched a few videos of Newcomb pitch this morning and was looking specifically at his control trying to see if it was something fixable. My conclusion was its definitely something that can be fixed.

You'd see Newcomb go through several batters where his pitching motion was smooth and consistent. When this happened his stuff was crisper and he was hitting the glove.

Then, for whatever reason, he'd lose it. His motion would be noticeably different and he'd lose his release point. When he lost his release point he'd miss by feet. Pitches would sail or bounce. Then he'd get things back in line and he'd be smoothly hitting 95 and placing the ball where he wanted it.

I wondered if I was right in what I thought I saw so I looked into it. There was an article from last spring when Newcomb was sent to minor league camp. In it Scosia talked about how talented Newcomb is and how he just needs to find a way to keep his release point consistent and find it again when he does lose it.

Honestly, watching him reminded me of a young Kimbrel. Kimbrel did the same thing when he first came up. One minute everything is smooth, he's locating his pitches, and is unhittable. The next it looks like his motion is disjointed, he can't find a release point, and has no idea where the ball is going.

Whether Newcomb ever gets his mechanics down and is able to have consistent command is a question. But I'm pretty confident that his control is something that could very easily come along with more innings.

Thanks. I agree with this.

Careful though... Optimism is often not well received here.

[nsacpi]

Optimism is fine. There have been some great pitchers (JR Richards, Randy Johnson) who struggled with control issues.

But realism is also in order. If you look at the whole range of outcomes for pitchers who fit Newcomb's profile, there are a fair number of busts. And lots of in betweens. People like Jonathan Sanchez who had some success in the majors but didn't fully live up to their potential.

[striker42]

Optimism is fine. There have been some great pitchers (JR Richards, Randy Johnson) who struggled with control issues.

But realism is also in order. If you look at the whole range of outcomes for pitchers who fit Newcomb's profile, there are a fair number of busts. And lots of in betweens. People like Jonathan Sanchez who had some success in the majors but didn't fully live up to their potential.

Absolutely. Newcomb could very possibly never be able to get things smoothed out.

Some guys are just wild. They can have no mechanical issues but just lack the feel necessary to spot the ball. Some have mechanical issues they never can fix. Others fix their issues and become dominant.

All I can say right now is Newcomb is not a guy that is just wild. His issues are fixable.

[emk418]

Optimism is fine. There have been some great pitchers (JR Richards, Randy Johnson) who struggled with control issues.

But realism is also in order. If you look at the whole range of outcomes for pitchers who fit Newcomb's profile, there are a fair number of busts. And lots of in betweens. People like Jonathan Sanchez who had some success in the majors but didn't fully live up to their potential.

Agree with part of this and Newcomb definitely has development left. But he's also a guy with front line SP stuff and the frame to be an absolute workhorse. Command with power pitchers is always the last thing to come. Obviously some never figure it out but I'm confident in Newcomb. Also, I don't agree with the Sanchez comparison, he was never rated as highly as Newcombe currently is.

[nsacpi]

BA has Newcomb at #24 on their Top 100 list.

I'm going to list below all the pitchers ranked 20-30 on their lists over the 2001-2010 period.

Chapman, Matzek, Kelly (the one just released by the Braves), Drabek, Turner, Porcello, Tillman, Matusz, Parker, Adenhart, Gio Gonzalez, Adam Miler, Pelfrey, Garza, Kershaw, Franklin Morales, Lester, Jenks, Niemann, Francis, Capellan, Hinckley, Edwin Jackson, Floyd, Tsao, Angel Guzman, Erwin Santana, Felix Hernandez, Bonderman, van Benschoten, Burnett, Rafael Soriano, Harden, Cliff Lee, Rauch, Howington, Carlos Hernandez, Peavy, Bonser, Bradley, George, Belisle, Bridges, Ainsworth

Draw your conclusions.

[smootness]

BA has Newcomb at #24 on their Top 100 list.

I'm going to list below all the pitchers ranked 20-30 on their lists over the 2001-2010 period.

Chapman, Matzek, Kelly (the one just released by the Braves), Drabek, Turner, Porcello, Tillman, Matusz, Parker, Adenhart, Gio Gonzalez, Adam Miler, Pelfrey, Garza, Kershaw, Franklin Morales, Lester, Jenks, Niemann, Francis, Capellan, Hinckley, Edwin Jackson, Floyd, Tsao, Angel Guzman, Erwin Santana, Felix Hernandez, Bonderman, van Benschoten, Burnett, Rafael Soriano, Harden, Cliff Lee, Rauch, Howington, Carlos Hernandez, Peavy, Bonser, Bradley, George, Belisle, Bridges, Ainsworth

Draw your conclusions.

My conclusions are that he could be a bust or RP, a pretty good SP, or an unquestioned ace.

Pretty much what we already know.

[GovClintonTyree]

I'll start by saying I'm no scout and have never been a pitcher. I'm just a guy who has watched a lot of baseball.

That being said, I watched a few videos of Newcomb pitch this morning and was looking specifically at his control trying to see if it was something fixable. My conclusion was its definitely something that can be fixed.

You'd see Newcomb go through several batters where his pitching motion was smooth and consistent. When this happened his stuff was crisper and he was hitting the glove.

Then, for whatever reason, he'd lose it. His motion would be noticeably different and he'd lose his release point. When he lost his release point he'd miss by feet. Pitches would sail or bounce. Then he'd get things back in line and he'd be smoothly hitting 95 and placing the ball where he wanted it.

I wondered if I was right in what I thought I saw so I looked into it. There was an article from last spring when Newcomb was sent to minor league camp. In it Scosia talked about how talented Newcomb is and how he just needs to find a way to keep his release point consistent and find it again when he does lose it.

Honestly, watching him reminded me of a young Kimbrel. Kimbrel did the same thing when he first came up. One minute everything is smooth, he's locating his pitches, and is unhittable. The next it looks like his motion is disjointed, he can't find a release point, and has no idea where the ball is going.

Whether Newcomb ever gets his mechanics down and is able to have consistent command is a question. But I'm pretty confident that his control is something that could very easily come along with more innings.

Thanks for your thoughts on this. I haven't seen him yet, but I've seen 5BB/9 and saw results on his first outing. But I always like the numbers to augment what I see rather than relying on them.

I did see Randy Johnson a lot when he was young in Seattle. First time, he was all over the place. Two months later he was unhittable. That was repetition and mental focus, IMO.

Hopefully Newcomb does the same.

[auyushu]

Thanks for your thoughts on this. I haven't seen him yet, but I've seen 5BB/9 and saw results on his first outing. But I always like the numbers to augment what I see rather than relying on them.

I did see Randy Johnson a lot when he was young in Seattle. First time, he was all over the place. Two months later he was unhittable. That was repetition and mental focus, IMO.

Hopefully Newcomb does the same.

By all accounts Randy actually changed how he finished his delivery based on a suggestion by Nolan Ryan in a session they had together in late 92, and that was what helped him be more consistent and less wild. Not that repetition and focus can't help Newcomb, but Randy isn't really a good comparison since he didn't really turn the corner until he was 29, and it was a delivery tweak that did it.

[chop2chip]

BA has Newcomb at #24 on their Top 100 list.

I'm going to list below all the pitchers ranked 20-30 on their lists over the 2001-2010 period.

Chapman, Matzek, Kelly (the one just released by the Braves), Drabek, Turner, Porcello, Tillman, Matusz, Parker, Adenhart, Gio Gonzalez, Adam Miler, Pelfrey, Garza, Kershaw, Franklin Morales, Lester, Jenks, Niemann, Francis, Capellan, Hinckley, Edwin Jackson, Floyd, Tsao, Angel Guzman, Erwin Santana, Felix Hernandez, Bonderman, van Benschoten, Burnett, Rafael Soriano, Harden, Cliff Lee, Rauch, Howington, Carlos Hernandez, Peavy, Bonser, Bradley, George, Belisle, Bridges, Ainsworth

Draw your conclusions.

That wasn't a different Kelley that the Braves released (we still have Casey, not Ryan).

[Deester11]

I'm no scout either, but some of you know I give insight to many prospects I watch personally, most recently Lucas Sims and I think I was spot on. I was there with Braxton's dad for his first HR, but I digress.

In Sean's case, he needs a full year in the minors honestly. He COULD pitch in the majors today with his stuff but it means nothing if you can't stop walking guys. What I see is 'lag'. He doesn't yet have a consistent release point although that's repetition. I'll be in Rome a lot, but follow him where I can. He is no doubt a stud. Some lefties don't get it until later. He will in my opinion.

[Dalyn]

I want to make a comb joke, but it really does not seem worth the effort. I didn't even bother to replace not with knot.

[cajunrevenge]

Optimism isn't well received here? That's news to me.

[Dalyn]

Optimism isn't well received here? That's news to me.

I'm so optimistic it burns when I breathe.

[Bravesfannchar]

I'm so optimistic it burns when I breathe.

Better than burning when you pee.......