The point is moot because the Braves weren't going to give Heyward an opt out. I think thats a nonstarter with this FO? Someone let me know if thats off base.
Agree to pay you big money over a long term deal and you get to opt out if you want? Nah. No thanks, not unless it goes both ways.
Ivermectin Man
"Yes, I did think Aldrich was good UNTIL I SAW HIM PLAY. "- thethe
That really depends on your point of view. Do we field a better team now, to sacrifice later? Not me. Do we get the no 1 pick with better uses of our funds? Get three first round pitchers last year with better uses? I think you are looking at the benefit now, rather than what we are trying to achieve down the road.
Ivermectin Man
Markakis was better last year than Heyward has been this year, and according to fangraphs has been a half a win worse this year. bWAR has Markakis as better than Heyward this year.
So I'd take the shorter contract because clearly you don't know what you're going to get from Heyward over the next 7 years.
What am I cherry picking? I am using combined stats over a set period. I am not the one picking out certain years to fit my narrative. Yes I would agree the contract is more risky from this point on given what he has done this year. But the reality is that it's been around 5 months. If it continues the rest of the year and next then I would agree with you but right now I would give the benefit of the doubt to someone who has had solid production with the bat. I would say the same thing about JUp too.
Because I feel a season 5 years ago is irrelevant. Usually the last 3-4 is what you want to base your judgement on. But since you are so inclined let's include his junior and rookie season. His WRC+ is the same whether you use the last 4 years or the last 6. And yes I am currently ignoring his stats this season because I see that as a fluke and expect him to produce as he has the 4 seasons prior going forward. Similar to how Andruw had a poor year at age 24. It was a one off that wouldn't be repeated for another 8 seasons. Now if Heyward has another year this bad in 2017 then it's really time to start worrying.
If we could've paid Heyward $18M until 2019 we would've. But that wasn't an option. So comparing what we're paying Kemp to what Heyward is making UNTIL 2023 is pointless.