Trade Speculation

[Enscheff]

You're such a tool. If something isn't impossible then it's not stupid. If the Braves want him and the Brewers want to get something back then I don't see the issue. Have the Braves done it before? No, but could they? Absolutely.

Got it. I'll lump it in with the excellent Strasburg and Price ideas. There's probably a few splendid Greinke ideas in that bucket too. Unrealisitic Heyward and JUp resigning ideas are in there as well.

To be clear though, Lucroy is a very viable trade target and represents a logical idea, even if I think they should target a longer term catcher. The extension window you all are so vehemently fighting for as a realistic scenario...not so much.

[yeezus]

Got it. I'll lump it in with the excellent Strasburg and Price ideas. There's probably a few splendid Greinke ideas in that bucket too. Unrealisitic Heyward and JUp resigning ideas are in there as well.

To be clear though, Lucroy is a very viable trade target and represents a logical idea, even if I think they should target a longer term catcher. The extension window you all are so vehemently fighting for as a realistic scenario...not so much.

you realize we offered JUp a contract, right?

[Julio3000]

you realize we offered JUp a contract, right?

From Talking Chop, emphasis mine:

'According to Ken Rosenthal, "the Braves talked to Upton's camp about a reunion as they rebuild and prepare for the opening of their new ballpark in 2017, according to major-league sources.

No offer was made, but the conversations centered on a six-year contract that would have been for a significantly lower average annual value than Upton received in his six-year, $132.75 million deal with the Tigers, sources said."

It is important to note that no official offer was ever made, but it goes along with everything John Coppolella and John Hart have said since taking over: the Braves are always open for business, even if they aren't buying and selling'

[Enscheff]

From Talking Chop, emphasis mine:

'According to Ken Rosenthal, "the Braves talked to Upton's camp about a reunion as they rebuild and prepare for the opening of their new ballpark in 2017, according to major-league sources.

No offer was made, but the conversations centered on a six-year contract that would have been for a significantly lower average annual value than Upton received in his six-year, $132.75 million deal with the Tigers, sources said."

It is important to note that no official offer was ever made, but it goes along with everything John Coppolella and John Hart have said since taking over: the Braves are always open for business, even if they aren't buying and selling'

Wrong. They discussed a deal that was so far below the 6/130 deal he eventually got that they didn't even bother to make an actual offer.

Was that your attempt at "proving" the Braves might suddenly be willing to splurge on a $150M contract, and thus strike down one of my points?

EDIT: Sorry Julio, I meant to quote yeezus, but I'm too dumb to work a message board haha!

[The Chosen One]

Reading the threads these days is like watching Captain America: Civil War all over again.

[Carp]

The point is folks ignorantly throwing out ideas that have zero chance of happening, especially with the Braves organization. Things like hometown discounts because the guy was a Braves fan growing up, opt outs, no trade clauses, contacts over $150M, pre-trade extension windows. All things the Braves have never and probably will never be a part of, yet posters still insist on making incompetent suggestions involving those exact scenarios.

Yes, negotiating windows have obviously been done before with extreme superstars. Lucroy is not a mega star, and the Braves have never been a part of something like that. I'll always call someone out for a dumb idea, and even suggesting the Braves will get a negotiating window with Lucroy is a dumb idea.

But hey, it's cool. Dumb ideas are floated around here all the time. I suppose I should do a better job of simply ignoring them.

This is a DISCUSSION board. So yes, there will be hypothetical trades, signings, etc discussed. If you don't like those discussions then what are you doing here? And how do you know they are ignorant or what chances they have of happening? Plenty of unpredictable things happen in baseball every year. Yes, even with the Braves.


But getting back on point, no one said that a trade and extension window was likely. The comment was made that Hudson wouldn't trade for Lucroy without an extension window, to which you snidely remarked "when has that happened ever in baseball history." Well there are in fact several examples od that happening, so you're snide remarks were completely unwarranted.

[bravesfanMatt]

This is a DISCUSSION board. So yes, there will be hypothetical trades, signings, etc discussed. If you don't like those discussions then what are you doing here? And how do you know they are ignorant or what chances they have of happening? Plenty of unpredictable things happen in baseball every year. Yes, even with the Braves.


But getting back on point, no one said that a trade and extension window was likely. The comment was made that Hudson wouldn't trade for Lucroy without an extension window, to which you snidely remarked "when has that happened ever in baseball history." Well there are in fact several examples od that happening, so you're snide remarks were completely unwarranted.

It is his world and we are all just paying rent. Never forget it.

[cajunrevenge]

We dont need an extension with Lucroy to make a deal. If we traded for Braun/Lucroy then we could compete for a playoff spot in 2017. With the Braves potential future money to spend and a lack of quality free agents I say we could just give qualifying offer to Lucroy. Even if he isnt worth the amount it would absolve us of any long term risk. If he rejects it then we get another draft pick. Its hard to find trades for players who are under team control long term. We should expect some short term trades if we are going to compete in 2017/2018.

[Horsehide Harry]

We dont need an extension with Lucroy to make a deal. If we traded for Braun/Lucroy then we could compete for a playoff spot in 2017. With the Braves potential future money to spend and a lack of quality free agents I say we could just give qualifying offer to Lucroy. Even if he isnt worth the amount it would absolve us of any long term risk. If he rejects it then we get another draft pick. Its hard to find trades for players who are under team control long term. We should expect some short term trades if we are going to compete in 2017/2018.

IF you get Braun and Lecroy you still have two HUGE holes at 3B and RF, not to mention a starting rotation full of near rookies and an unknown pen. I'm not saying it couldn't happen. The rotation and the pen MIGHT work out to be fine. But, I would feel better about the possibilities if there was a real 3B and a useful RF. Without upgrades at 3B and RF, you probably only see a net 30-40 HR total which would put the Braves in the 120 range most likely at best which is still way light for a contender and likely still worst in the league. I know everyone likes to point to KC, but last year they had 139HR hit, had reasonably good SP and an ALL-WORLD Pen. KC also played in a Division where their closest realistic competitor (Detroit) imploded and the rest of the teams Chisox, Twins and Cleveland just sucked naturally.

[nsacpi]

IF you get Braun and Lecroy you still have two HUGE holes at 3B and RF, not to mention a starting rotation full of near rookies and an unknown pen. I'm not saying it couldn't happen. The rotation and the pen MIGHT work out to be fine. But, I would feel better about the possibilities if there was a real 3B and a useful RF.

Firstly, its YUGE.

Secondly, I think the idea if we got Braun (or Kemp) would be to go with an outfield of Smith, Inciarte and Braun (Kemp). Unless one of Smith or Inciarte is traded. In which case, I suppose Markakis is the third outfielder.

Thirdly, there are some decent free agent options for third. Freese, Prado, Desmond, Turner, Uribe.

Fourthly, I don't think any of us expects a 90+ win team in 2017. But I think that without cannibalizing from the future (except to the extent that doing better will negatively affect our draft position) we can place ourselves as a team that is in the 80-85 range on the expected win curve.

[cajunrevenge]

IF you get Braun and Lecroy you still have two HUGE holes at 3B and RF, not to mention a starting rotation full of near rookies and an unknown pen. I'm not saying it couldn't happen. The rotation and the pen MIGHT work out to be fine. But, I would feel better about the possibilities if there was a real 3B and a useful RF. Without upgrades at 3B and RF, you probably only see a net 30-40 HR total which would put the Braves in the 120 range most likely at best which is still way light for a contender and likely still worst in the league. I know everyone likes to point to KC, but last year they had 139HR hit, had reasonably good SP and an ALL-WORLD Pen. KC also played in a Division where their closest realistic competitor (Detroit) imploded and the rest of the teams Chisox, Twins and Cleveland just sucked naturally.

Well I am an OBP kind of guy. Markakis and his OBP in RF is just fine for me. I assume Inciarte would be in the trade. For 3B I project Rio Ruiz to be starting 3B with Adnois a potential platoon partner. I am not too hot on Rio but with a full year at AAA in 2016 I think he should get a shot. I like the idea of bringing Prado back. I am not trying to get to any arbitrary HR number here. For starters I like Teheran/Wisler/Blair. I'd like to add an ace in front of that staff but those options are limited. We have quite a few options for the last 2 spots. Who knows how some of those prospects develop in the next year or what trade options will become available. For the pen we also have quite a few live arms with almost a year still of development time. The one decent position in free agency is closer. We could sign a vet closer.


Baseball is not an easy thing to predict. You put a lot of talent on the field and see what happens. Look at a player like Francoeur. A lot of people would call him a bust but he was a decent player his first few years. We dont win the division that year if he doesnt come up and hit like crazy. Theres no way to predict **** like that. Or getting a random fluke year from a guy like Charles Thomas. Someone like Gattis might never be a useful ML player again but he was valuable for several years for us.

[GovClintonTyree]

Firstly, its YUGE.

Secondly, I think the idea if we got Braun (or Kemp) would be to go with an outfield of Smith, Inciarte and Braun (Kemp). Unless one of Smith or Inciarte is traded. In which case, I suppose Markakis is the third outfielder.

Thirdly, there are some decent free agent options for third. Freese, Prado, Desmond, Turner, Uribe.

Fourthly, I don't think any of us expects a 90+ win team in 2017. But I think that without cannibalizing from the future (except to the extent that doing better will negatively affect our draft position) we can place ourselves as a team that is in the 80-85 range on the expected win curve.

While I like the idea expressed herein, I would point out that your expected win total would be doubling our current 2016 pace.

It might take longer than a year and more than three decent players to wash the ick out.

[nsacpi]

While I like the idea expressed herein, I would point out that your expected win total would be doubling our current 2016 pace.

I put out an estimated win total on another thread. I'm going to cut and paste it below.

Smith LF (2 WAR)
Inciarte CF (3)
Markakis RF (2)
New Player at Third (2)
Oz SS (2)
Swanny 2B (2)
Freeman 1B (4)
New Catcher (2)

Overall from lineup: 19 WAR

Teheran (3)
Wisler (2)
Blair (2)
Folty (2)
Sims (2)

Overall from rotation: 11 WAR

Pen and Bench: 6 WAR

Total: 36 WAR

Team of replacement players is 48 wins

Gets us to 84 wins

Doesn't seem far-fetched to me. None of the assumptions are unrealistic. We have the funds/trade pieces to pick up a catcher, third baseman, 1 or 2 relief pitchers, and 1 or 2 veteran bench players.

We have some fallback options for the starting pitching: Gant, Jenkins, Newcomb.

Rio Ruiz might continue to surprise and be able to fill in at third. This is why someone like Prado who could move to another position if necessary makes a lot of sense as a signing this off-season.

[UNCBlue012]

Ruiz scares me. He's incredibly streaky. Right now, he looks so awful. Unlike Albies, who can be off and scorch the ball, Ruiz just looks silly at the plate.

[clvclv]

https://whensidslidcronies.wordpress...actually-have/

[auyushu]

I put out an estimated win total on another thread. I'm going to cut and paste it below.



Doesn't seem far-fetched to me. None of the assumptions are unrealistic.

Your expectations for the pitching and bench/bullpen are pretty farfetched. Julio has hit 3 WAR once in his entire career, and expecting all 5 of our starting spots to hit 2 WAR is highly unrealistic. We're probably much more likely to get 7ish WAR from our starters than over 10. Our bullpen currently royally sucks, expecting it to just magically turn into a huge positive isn't particularly realistic.

Markakis didn't hit 2 WAR last year, isn't on pace to hit it this year either. 2 WAR from Smith in a corner OF spot isn't realistic at this point either. Expecting a 3 WAR bench to happen for sure isn't realistic, we had around a 2 WAR bench last year with some pretty good bench bats.

It's not like you are crazy off on individual players expected outcomes, but a half a WAR here or there adds up. We are much closer to 74 wins than 84 even with your expected lineup changes, unless our 3B and C pickups are much bigger than 2 WAR players.

[Horsehide Harry]

Your expectations for the pitching and bench/bullpen are pretty farfetched. Julio has hit 3 WAR once in his entire career, and expecting all 5 of our starting spots to hit 2 WAR is highly unrealistic. We're probably much more likely to get 7ish WAR from our starters than over 10. Our bullpen currently royally sucks, expecting it to just magically turn into a huge positive isn't particularly realistic.

Markakis didn't hit 2 WAR last year, isn't on pace to hit it this year either. 2 WAR from Smith in a corner OF spot isn't realistic at this point either. Expecting a 3 WAR bench to happen for sure isn't realistic, we had around a 2 WAR bench last year with some pretty good bench bats.

It's not like you are crazy off on individual players expected outcomes, but a half a WAR here or there adds up. We are much closer to 74 wins than 84 even with your expected lineup changes, unless our 3B and C pickups are much bigger than 2 WAR players.

and 84 wins is 3 wins over .500, 4 wins away from a losing season. I say build for greatness not incremental mediocrity.

[smootness]

https://whensidslidcronies.wordpress...actually-have/

I would be totally fine with Bregman as the main return for Teheran, though I would prefer to get another piece as well, even if the Astros are unlikely to agree.

Just a suggestion, and no one asked me...but I might consider changing the layout of the site in terms of colors, for whoever it is in charge of it. It's pretty tough to read with the black background.

[Hudson2]

https://whensidslidcronies.wordpress...actually-have/

Completely about Bregman. I've been a big fan of his for a while. Him at 3b would solve our problem for a long time. I could actually see that trade happening and it turning out great for both sides. This is the exact type of deal Coppy needs to be looking into.

[Carp]

Your expectations for the pitching and bench/bullpen are pretty farfetched. Julio has hit 3 WAR once in his entire career, and expecting all 5 of our starting spots to hit 2 WAR is highly unrealistic. We're probably much more likely to get 7ish WAR from our starters than over 10. Our bullpen currently royally sucks, expecting it to just magically turn into a huge positive isn't particularly realistic.

Markakis didn't hit 2 WAR last year, isn't on pace to hit it this year either. 2 WAR from Smith in a corner OF spot isn't realistic at this point either. Expecting a 3 WAR bench to happen for sure isn't realistic, we had around a 2 WAR bench last year with some pretty good bench bats.

It's not like you are crazy off on individual players expected outcomes, but a half a WAR here or there adds up. We are much closer to 74 wins than 84 even with your expected lineup changes, unless our 3B and C pickups are much bigger than 2 WAR players.

A few things I disagree with here:

For one, our pen should improve as the season goes on and actually has some very good pieces to build on. Viz is a lights out closer, Cervenka looks like the 2nd coming of O'Flaherty/Venters right now. We have Simmons returning in August and ManBan at some point as well. Gant is another possibility as well.

Our rotation looks solid if we don't trade JT. Early returns on Wisler and Blair look very promising. Always a chance we sign another quality pitcher as well.

Nick was at 1.9 WAR last year and is at .7 through the 1st month and a half. A 2 WAR is certainly isn't out of the question.