Trade Speculation

[cajunrevenge]

I think Teheran would get slaughtered in the AL.

[auyushu]

A few things I disagree with here:

For one, our pen should improve as the season goes on and actually has some very good pieces to build on. Viz is a lights out closer, Cervenka looks like the 2nd coming of O'Flaherty/Venters right now. We have Simmons returning in August and ManBan at some point as well. Gant is another possibility as well.

Our rotation looks solid if we don't trade JT. Early returns on Wisler and Blair look very promising. Always a chance we sign another quality pitcher as well.

Nick was at 1.9 WAR last year and is at .7 through the 1st month and a half. A 2 WAR is certainly isn't out of the question.

A 2 WAR pitcher is more than merely solid, that's basically what Tim Hudson was from 2012-2014. You're talking about our entire pitching staff pitching like #3 starters or better, with several being first year starters. That's not likely at all. And yes our pen should improve, but it's a huge jump to go from horrible to a 3 WAR bullpen. A 3 WAR bullpen is very good, without someone like Kimbrel inflating the numbers you need a large number of good pitchers, not just 3-4. Only about half the teams in baseball had 3 WAR and better bullpens the past 2 seasons. It's certainly not completely unrealistic to think we get there, but it's by no means likely.

Markakis has .2 WAR on Fangraphs right now and has only hit 2 WAR once this decade. It's certainly possible but not a likely outcome. Kinda weird that Bref and FG WAR are so far apart on him though.

[nsacpi]

A 2 WAR pitcher is more than merely solid, that's basically what Tim Hudson was from 2012-2014. You're talking about our entire pitching staff pitching like #3 starters or better, with several being first year starters. That's not likely at all. And yes our pen should improve, but it's a huge jump to go from horrible to a 3 WAR bullpen. A 3 WAR bullpen is very good, without someone like Kimbrel inflating the numbers you need a large number of good pitchers, not just 3-4. Only about half the teams in baseball had 3 WAR and better bullpens the past 2 seasons. It's certainly not completely unrealistic to think we get there, but it's by no means likely.

Markakis has .2 WAR on Fangraphs right now and has only hit 2 WAR once this decade. It's certainly possible but not a likely outcome. Kinda weird that Bref and FG WAR are so far apart on him though.

Sixteen major league bullpens had WAR of 3 or higher in 2015. As for the starting pitching, I am being optimistic but at the same time allowing fo some attrition/failure. Right now I think we have seven bona fide candidates for the 2017 rotation: Teheran, Wisler, Blair, Foltynevich, Perez, Sims, Gant. I'm assuming we will sort through those seven and find five who will turn in solid performances. I think they are all capable of turning in a 2 WAR performance. It is an optimistic projection but not crazy. I would even say that there is some upside. We have the rest of this season to evaluate these guys at both the major league and minor league levels and gain a sense of which ones are more likely to get the job done next year.

[auyushu]

Sixteen major league bullpens had WAR of 3 or higher in 2015.

Yes, that's what I said, about half the teams in baseball had 3 WAR or better. And I don't consider your prediction crazy, but it is very optimistic.

[clvclv]

I think Teheran would get slaughtered in the AL.

I wouldn't disagree with this at all. The point is, where are they going to find someone better that they can get for less? The reasoning behind this particular line of thinking is that if you're a contender willing to give up a/multiple significant prospect/s to get a potential inexpensive, controllable arm, would you empty the farm (assuming you have pieces to trade) to get someone like Gray when you could get someone like Julio for the "right" good prospect? Gray would arguably cost the Astros Bregman, Francis Martes, AND Kyle Tucker? Considering the depth they have at those positions, that kind of deal would seem to make sense, but it also resembles the Teixeira deal - it's great if it pays off, but it could very easily turn into one of those huge overpays. If Houston didn't win a Championship within a couple years and those three guys come close to their ceilings (or Gray or McCullers blows out an elbow or shoulder), there's an awfully good chance Astros fans burn Luhnow dummies in effigy outside the Juice Box for years to come.

The cost to gamble that Julio could become an effective #3 in the American League would be much smaller, and they've traded away pretty much every arm they had in their system who had a chance of being that guy for less money - Velasquez, Appel, and Eshelman are gone, and Gray would cost them Martes.