Extenting the Yute

[nsacpi]

It has become fairly obvious that extenting players before they hit free agency is a much better policy for clubs (especially smaller and mid market ones) than playing in the deep waters of top tier free agency. The Braves have done well with deals to McCann, Freeman, Simmons, Teheran, and Kimbrel. There will always be some deals of this sort that don't work out. But others become absolute bargains (McCutchen, Altuve) for the teams involved, allowing them to significantly expand their competitive windows.

The main point is that as a group these deals work for the clubs. So you want to extent just about every possible candidate. This allows the law of averages to work in your favor. And you want to strike three or four years ahead of free agency, because these kinds of deals get harder to reach as a player gets closer to free agency.

With respect to the Bravos, it seems to me this off-season will be a good time to get something done with Vizcaino and Inciarte. Then moving forward, any prospect that develops into a decent major league regular should be approached with an extension offer. I think we should even do this with pitchers, who are more risky. The risk-return still seems to favor the clubs with them, although I think it is smart to try to tack on an option year with pitchers as we did with Teheran and Kimbrel.

Extenting the yute as they establish themselves in the majors is the best way for a mid-market them like the Bravos to achieve their stated goal of being perpetual contenders.

[Enscheff]

Guys like Swanson and Albies (especially Albies since he will be so young)? Definitely yes. They will likely only get 1 FA year from Swanson because he is a bit older, but they should be able to get multiple FA years from Albies.

Inciarte, whose value is tied to defense that will start to decline before his current team control is up? Not so much. Mallex, whose value is tied to speed that will likely decline by the time his current control is up? No thank you. Wisler, the MOR guy who is already controlled through most of his 20s? No need to take on that risk, but getting an option year might be worth it. Same deal with Blair and Folty. No need to commit to them into their 30s.

Any pitcher with a TJ already on their resume? Don't extend under any circumstances.

I would be very hesitant to extend any pitcher unless they were young enough that team options would still be covering seasons in the 20s. Otherwise, use them up, and then ship them out before they get hurt or lose effectiveness. Then replace them with the next young gun in the system, or fill the void with a 1-2 year FA veteran guy.

[The Chosen One]

What's crazy is Kimbrel threw so hard and what not, but I never felt he was gonna be an injury risk so I didn't mind his extension.

Viz has a bit of history with arm issues, so I'd be hesitant to offer it to him.

Maybe we can extent Grilli for a few years to mentor the yute?

[nsacpi]

Guys like Swanson and Albies (especially Albies since he will be so young)? Definitely yes. They will likely only get 1 FA year from Swanson because he is a bit older, but they should be able to get multiple FA years from Albies.

Inciarte, whose value is tied to defense that will start to decline before his current team control is up? Not so much. Mallex, whose value is tied to speed that will likely decline by the time his current control is up? No thank you. Wisler, the MOR guy who is already controlled through most of his 20s? No need to take on that risk, but getting an option year might be worth it. Same deal with Blair and Folty. No need to commit to them into their 30s.

Any pitcher with a TJ already on their resume? Don't extend under any circumstances.

I would be very hesitant to extend any pitcher unless they were young enough that team options would still be covering seasons in the 20s. Otherwise, use them up, and then ship them out before they get hurt or lose effectiveness. Then replace them with the next young gun in the system, or fill the void with a 1-2 year FA veteran guy.

The deal with Kimbrel bought out his first FA season (age 29) with option for his age 30 season. The deal with Teheran bought out his first FA season (age 28) with option for his age 29. I think those are good deals from the club's perspective. The option is fairly valuable. It gives you significant upside for that year while limiting the downside risk.

[nsacpi]

What's crazy is Kimbrel threw so hard and what not, but I never felt he was gonna be an injury risk so I didn't mind his extension.

Viz has a bit of history with arm issues, so I'd be hesitant to offer it to him.

Maybe we can extent Grilli for a few years to mentor the yute?

having good mentors for the yute is important

[DaneHill]

I'm a bit gun shy to offer any extensions after that last round a couple years ago went completely off the rails. Not saying that I wouldn't. But man, what disappointments those all turned into what seemed like overnight. I like the character and abilities of Swanson and Albies, so I'd likely be ok with them eventually. No pitchers for me though, period. Not with the track record for this organization. Too many Venters, Jurrgens, Medlen, Beachy, Minor examples of late. Something this organization is doing is killing these pitchers' careers prematurely.

[KB21]

I'm a bit gun shy to offer any extensions after that last round a couple years ago went completely off the rails. Not saying that I wouldn't. But man, what disappointments those all turned into what seemed like overnight. I like the character and abilities of Swanson and Albies, so I'd likely be ok with them eventually. No pitchers for me though, period. Not with the track record for this organization. Too many Venters, Jurrgens, Medlen, Beachy, Minor examples of late. Something this organization is doing is killing these pitchers' careers prematurely.

Need to go back to Leo's throwing program.

[Enscheff]

The deal with Kimbrel bought out his first FA season (age 29) with option for his age 30 season. The deal with Teheran bought out his first FA season (age 28) with option for his age 29. I think those are good deals from the club's perspective. The option is fairly valuable. It gives you significant upside for that year while limiting the downside risk.

Agreed, neither contract guaranteed money to a pitcher into his 30s. I would be fine with an option for the age 30 season. However, neither of those guys had a TJ on their resume. Those deals guaranteed money through the arbitration years when it would be nice to cut them lose in the event of injury. I would NOT commit money to a TJ guy, not even through his arb years.

Most players will want to hit FA by age 30, so unless they include a FA year or 2, it makes zero sense to commit to them through their arb years. Looking for "cost certainty" is far less valuable than having the option of just dumping a guy if he sucks during his arb years. We learned that with CJ.

So my rules for pitcher extension would be:

1. No TJs, period
2. Only guarantee through their 20s
3. Option year(s) in their 30s
4. Only guarantee arb years if it comes with cheap FA years

Position players are little less risky, so a deal like Freeman's is great. However, players that rely on defense and/or speed for the bulk of their value (like Mallex and Inciarte) should not be extended into their 30s.

[nsacpi]

Inciarte hits free agency after his age 29 season in 2020. I'd be good with extenting him through the first two years after that.

Viz is a TJ survivor. And I agree the team needs to be very careful there. I would not have a completely inflexible rule of no extension in those cases, but there has to be some compensation from the player to reflect the risk that is being shifted to the team. Maybe 2 option years in those cases. And certainly a haircut has to be applied to the AAV to reflect the risk associated with being a TJ survivor. He hits free agency after his age 28 season in 2019.

[Enscheff]

Inciarte hits free agency after his age 29 season in 2020. I'd be good with extenting him through the first two years after that.

Viz is a TJ survivor. And I agree the team needs to be very careful there. I would not have a completely inflexible rule of no extension in those cases, but there has to be some compensation from the player to reflect the risk that is being shifted to the team. Maybe 2 option years in those cases. And certainly a haircut has to be applied to the AAV to reflect the risk associated with being a TJ survivor. He hits free agency after his age 28 season in 2019.

I personally don't see the point in extending Inciarte, but that's obviously a difference in opinion.

As Braves fans we have seen first hand how likely TJ guys are to blow out again. Why take that risk for a BP guy or a MOR starter? I could see taking the risk of guaranteeing arb years plus an option or 2 for a guy like Fernandez, simply because true TOR talents are hard to acquire. But MOR and BP guys? They can be acquired every single offseason, so why risk taking on a dead weight contract to save a few bucks on a talent that could be signed off the FA market any offseason?

[nsacpi]

I personally don't see the point in extending Inciarte, but that's obviously a difference in opinion.

As Braves fans we have seen first hand how likely TJ guys are to blow out again. Why take that risk for a BP guy or a MOR starter? I could see taking the risk of guaranteeing arb years plus an option or 2 for a guy like Fernandez, simply because true TOR talents are hard to acquire. But MOR and BP guys? They can be acquired every single offseason, so why risk taking on a dead weight contract to save a few bucks on a talent that could be signed off the FA market any offseason?

There has to be a return on the risk of extending someone like Vizcaino. We have seen the price of relief pitching rise in recent years. So there is some potential benefit to the club. Take the case of Mark Melancon, for example. He is a very good closer. And his salary this year (his last arb year) is almost $10M. If Viz is willing to take a 30% discount over his projected arb year salaries and give us two option years, I'd be open to that sort of deal.

[JxnMissFan]

No need to be in a rush to extend Inciarte or Viz.

I love the defense from Inciarte. Without a doubt he is one of the best defensive players in the game and one of the few Braves that shouldn't be traded. I am just not sure what his overall value is because no one knows what kind of offensive player he will be. He hasn't played 2 full seasons yet. If he puts up numbers on offense close to Heywards 14 and 15 numbers over the next year that's when I doing everything I can to extend him.

Unless Viz turns into Kimbrel he will never be a budget buster in his arb years.

[nsacpi]

One thing to keep in mind is that the risk-return profile of a strategy of extenting players early improves as the number of players to which it is applied grows. The principle of diversification at work. So even if Inciarte and Viz might not be perfect candidates, there is a case for including them within the group. I also think it might be easier to persuade Albies and Swanson to do the same when their turn comes if we show a willingness to make this a general policy. Players do like to know they are part of a winning and stable team.

Finally, there is nothing to preclude trading a player after he has been extented. We have done so with Kimbrel and Simmons. And are probably open to doing so with Teheran for the right price. In the case of Kimbrel, Simmons and hypothetically Teheran, the trade value of all three has been enhanced by the extensions they signed.

[cajunrevenge]

I would offer Vizcaino a solid deal like 6 years 36 million. I dont trust his arm but it wouldnt kill us if it went bad. I would think a guy who is a few arm injuries away from never getting a big contract should seriously consider it.

[Russ2dollas]

I would offer Vizcaino a solid deal like 6 years 36 million. I dont trust his arm but it wouldnt kill us if it went bad. I would think a guy who is a few arm injuries away from never getting a big contract should seriously consider it.

I'd be ok with that. Maybe u work in some performance bonuses or vesting options if healthy. It would help protect a one time tj guy but would be way below market.

[Knucksie]

What's crazy is Kimbrel threw so hard and what not, but I never felt he was gonna be an injury risk so I didn't mind his extension.

Viz has a bit of history with arm issues, so I'd be hesitant to offer it to him.

Maybe we can extent Grilli for a few years to mentor the yute?

Like your thinking on the vet to mentor but hope they can find a better, more successful option than Grilli in the meantime.