Julion Teheran over the Years

[zbhargrove]

The Braves will only trade right-hander Julio Teheran if they can get a major league hitter of similar quality and age in return, general manager John Coppolella told Rosenthal. “The days of us trading players like Teheran for prospects are over. We need to get better at the major league level. We would have to be overwhelmed to move Teheran,” Coppolella said.

Good to see we are playing hard to get, as opposed to being in hurry to move a valuable player as we were with Simmons.

See... I think the return for Simmons was great. We got a top 25 MLB prospect who is a fire baller. Another SP prospect who could be very good and who has been really good thus far for us. And Aybar was actually a decent player last year. Hard to judge Aybars value based on this year because he's never been CLOSE to this bad in his career. Impossible to foresee. That's a pretty good return for a SS that's defense only. He's even worse now with the bat than he was with us.

[nsacpi]

The following position players have come through our minor league system in recent years: Heyward, Freeman, Simmons, Gattis, La Stella, Ahmed (partly), Drury (partly). I believe we have drafted a grand total of 1 position player with a top 20 pick since 2007. That strikes me as an impressive yield considering the draft picks expended on position players.

[nsacpi]

See... I think the return for Simmons was great. We got a top 25 MLB prospect who is a fire baller. Another SP prospect who could be very good and who has been really good thus far for us. And Aybar was actually a decent player last year. Hard to judge Aybars value based on this year because he's never been CLOSE to this bad in his career. Impossible to foresee. That's a pretty good return for a SS that's defense only. He's even worse now with the bat than he was with us.

It was indeed impossible to foresee Aybar's decline. Also impossible to foresee Simmons' injury and even weaker hitting so far this year. And impossible to foresee whether Newcomb will overcome his control issues. All we can do is make ex ante forecasts based upon the information available at the time the trade was made.

I don't think the trade was terrible. It was just a little short of what I would consider fair value. I don't expect every trade to be as lopsided as the Miller trade. But I want to see the Braves win these kinds of trade. You should especially be able to win these kinds of trades with teams in win now mode.

[yeezus]

I think a lot of teams probably looked at Andrelton as an amazing defender but pretty much a total black hole in the lineup. I'm sure most saw no potential in his bat along with bad base running - just a complete negative offensively. I'm really not sure you could ask for much else than what we got, and if you don't trade him then you run the risk of his bat going even further down (like it had this season so far), injury, and whoever eventually trades for him gets one less cheap year of control. the return seem(ed)/(s) completely appropriate to me.

[yeezus]

I think the FO is hoping Wisler can continue to pitch well, throw a good amount of innings (is he on a limit?), and prove to be a somewhat trustworthy #3. I think they're going to continue to let Blair work through his growing pains and hope he can look like a steady rotation guy. If by the end of the season Julio and Wisler are still pitching well, along with Blair ending on a strong note, we might look to trade some more pitching (especially if we draft one). even in that scenario, I'm not really trying to move Teheran.

[Carp]

For me it's about probabilities and strengths relative to weakness.

1. The Braves have a number of holes at the ML level line-up. And, even where the holes are "filled" the players that are there are either inadequate (Markakis, Flowers) for a good team or are at an age where they will be in decline (and expensive) by the time the Braves can realistically be good again (Freeman) or are of a type where there are multiple numbers and only one need e used (Mallex and Ender). So, essentially, thinking long term (not how can I make the 2017 better but how does the team become competitive and stay that way), essentially the entire line-up less 2B & SS (with Swanson and Albies penciled in there) and an OF position (with 1 of Ender or Mallex penciled in there) needs an infusion of talent - 1B more long term if you keep Freeman.
2. The Braves historically have been pretty bad at developing high quality ML hitters. Even the ones who roam the ML today (Heyward, Freeman, McCann, Francouer, etc.) are not as good as their talent suggests that they should be, although McCann comes closest over his career with Freeman being in there as well (I am talking offensive value). It just isn't something the Braves have been especially good at doing.
3. The current minor league prospects are mostly very far away (Riley, Acuna, Wilson) are or falling on their faces (Davidson, Ruiz) or appear to be marginal ML players (Peterson) with the exception of the aforementioned Albies and Swanson. So there isn't a lot of realistic help to even project to be available.
4. The FA crop is horrible for 2016-2017. The few bats that are good and available will also be old and expensive. Spend $30M per year over 4 years for Cespedes? Makes the lineup immediately better, but doesn't fill all the holes AND creates a cash flow and performance problem in 2019 & 2020 just when the majority of the young pitching will be mature. Sign Bautista? Even worse.
5. Trade for your offense? OK, what are you going to give up? What would Braun cost in terms of Braves prospects? The Brewers would want young pitching - MULTIPLE young pitchers. Let's say you get Braun for Newcomb, Soroka and Minter. Aren't you undoing what you just worked so hard to do?
6. The Braves have worked hard to trade for and draft a large number of pitching PROSPECTS. It is true that they are just prospects BUT your scouts and baseball people tell you these guys are good and will form your rotation of the future. But, it takes quantity to produce a few of quality.
7. Teheran is a good young starter who is signed to a reasonable contract, who has no significant injury history and appears to be a reasonable bet to produce value through the term of his existing contract. He's a very good #2 but doesn't appear to have the stuff or the steadiness to be a #1. Since Stras re-signed with the Gnats and since the FA and trade market is so bare, he is likely the most VALUABLE pitching trade piece in baseball which means that you can bring back multiple pieces to fill a number of those lineup holes. Is there a chance that he won't be adequately replaced from within by the young pitching on hand with the Braves? Of course. It's a bit of a gamble that the work done up to this point has been done well. However, it is less of a gamble than standing pat and hope for miracles to spring from the minor league system as is to fill current and near future holes in the ML lineup.

This may be nitpicking, but I don't see how the Braves historically are bad at developing high quality hitters. May be that is true recently (like last 10 years), but that's more a reflection of the draft/scouting philosophy under Wren's tenure.

But from the late 80's to about 2005, we were producing high quality offensive talent almost on a yearly basis. Guys I would consider as high quality that we developed during that time frame include Justice, Chipper, Klesko, Druw, Lopez, Jermaine Dye (even though we traded him off before he broke out), Furcal, and Mac. And we also produced a few other players who were very good as well, but with shorter peaks like Giles, Blauser, KJ, Salty, and Gant. And considering Yunel, Heyward, and Freeman were in the system before Wren took over, I'd add them to this list as well.

[Horsehide Harry]

The following position players have come through our minor league system in recent years: Heyward, Freeman, Simmons, Gattis, La Stella, Ahmed (partly), Drury (partly). I believe we have drafted a grand total of 1 position player with a top 20 pick since 2007. That strikes me as an impressive yield considering the draft picks expended on position players.

So it's pretty much guys from 6+ years ago (Freeman and Heyward) who haven't lived up to their offensive projections (Freeman comes closest but is a little short on traditional 1B power), a guy who can't hit but is all world defensively (Simmons), a scrape heap miracle who is thunder and miss with no defensive position (Gattis), a long shot who isn't yet an established ML starter (La Stella) and two guys who went to finishing school in other systems and didn't do much with the bat while they were Braves.

I'm not saying that the Braves can't turn themselves into (or back into) a decent offensive player producing franchise but they haven't done much lately. And yes, they haven't drafted any high placed bats recently either, but some of that is by choice.

To me the bottom line is that there isn't much past Albies and Swanson available anywhere above Low A in the system which means there isn't any legit help coming nor legit trade chips (outside of the young pitching) in the minor leagues. Hopefully Riley, Acuna, Wilson etc will all come up quickly. But I don't think you should count on that.

[Horsehide Harry]

This may be nitpicking, but I don't see how the Braves historically are bad at developing high quality hitters. May be that is true recently (like last 10 years), but that's more a reflection of the draft/scouting philosophy under Wren's tenure.

But from the late 80's to about 2005, we were producing high quality offensive talent almost on a yearly basis. Guys I would consider as high quality that we developed during that time frame include Justice, Chipper, Klesko, Druw, Lopez, Jermaine Dye (even though we traded him off before he broke out), Furcal, and Mac. And we also produced a few other players who were very good as well, but with shorter peaks like Giles, Blauser, KJ, Salty, and Gant. And considering Yunel, Heyward, and Freeman were in the system before Wren took over, I'd add them to this list as well.

I don't disagree that historically the Braves HAVE produced so bats. There just aren't any in the system right now beyond Albies and Swanson who are likely to have any real impact any time soon, as in the next 3 years.

[bravesfanMatt]

Anyone else read this....

http://sportsnaut.com/2016/05/five-m...oo-much-sense/


I just don't see the Dodgers giving up De Leon and Pederson

[nsacpi]

I don't disagree that historically the Braves HAVE produced so bats. There just aren't any in the system right now beyond Albies and Swanson who are likely to have any real impact any time soon, as in the next 3 years.

When was the last time we drafted a bat with a top 20 pick? We have done ok considering the draft picks we have invested in hitters.

[50PoundHead]

The following position players have come through our minor league system in recent years: Heyward, Freeman, Simmons, Gattis, La Stella, Ahmed (partly), Drury (partly). I believe we have drafted a grand total of 1 position player with a top 20 pick since 2007. That strikes me as an impressive yield considering the draft picks expended on position players.

This is where we'll disagree. Of the guys you mention, only Heyward and Freeman are what I would consider full-time regulars with plus hit tools (and there will be endless haggling about Heyward). Too early to tell on Drury, but the rest of the bunch are spotty offensive players (or in the case of La Stella defensive shortcomings that will likely prevent him from ever becoming a regular). That's hardly a good record of developing hitters.

Simmons was a luxury for us. I think his offensive game is starting to go south. We can argue about return, but Simmons wouldn't have made much of a difference for this year's squad.

[Enscheff]

Anyone else read this....

http://sportsnaut.com/2016/05/five-m...oo-much-sense/


I just don't see the Dodgers giving up De Leon and Pederson

This is a baseball website that just wrote the following sentence:

"The Braves took a nice step towards that progress when they landed Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair for Shelby Miller, but the farm system is still rather thin."

They said this about one of the top 3 farms in the game of baseball. Nothing else they write can be taken seriously.

Furthermore, Joc is yet another LHed hitter, and he swings and misses way too much. Of all the "great young players" out there, he is the one I want the least.

[yeezus]

This is a baseball website that just wrote the following sentence:

"The Braves took a nice step towards that progress when they landed Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair for Shelby Miller, but the farm system is still rather thin."

They said this about one of the top 3 farms in the game of baseball. Nothing else they write can be taken seriously.

Furthermore, Joc is yet another LHed hitter, and he swings and misses way too much. Of all the "great young players" out there, he is the one I want the least.

I agree with this until the last part. Plenty of "great young players" I'd take after Joc, Soler and Baez being two of them.

[bravesfanMatt]

This is a baseball website that just wrote the following sentence:

"The Braves took a nice step towards that progress when they landed Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair for Shelby Miller, but the farm system is still rather thin."

They said this about one of the top 3 farms in the game of baseball. Nothing else they write can be taken seriously.

Furthermore, Joc is yet another LHed hitter, and he swings and misses way too much. Of all the "great young players" out there, he is the one I want the least.

I wasn't looking for a credibility report.. I agree, 99% of trade 'Rumors' are some hack trying to get clicks.. But the package in return was some what intriguing..

I agree Joc has not been super impressive.. But his numbers are not alarming bad. He seems to have a little Braxon Davidson in him.. he is maybe too patient. I could really see him developing into a very good hitter. De Leon looks like he could be very good. So I really feel like this return would be a win for the Braves. No doubt if this were to happen, Neck and Ender would have to be traded.. Move Joc to LF/ Mallex to CF and look to target a FA/trade RF...