Williams perez

[msstate7]

38.2 ip 3.72 era 12 bb 19 k 33 h 1.16 whip

0.8 WAR

Is Williams becoming a contender to be 5th starter going forward?

[nsacpi]

A contender. Looking at what we have in house who might contend for a spot next spring:

Teheran and Wisler are locks barring trade or injury.

Main contenders for three spots: Baby Harang, Folty, Blair, Gant.

Outside contenders: Sims, Newcomb, Jenkins

Chances are someone gets hurt among the Top 6.

[mqt]

It'd be great if Perez could establish himself as a solid back-end starter. He could either hold down a rotation spot here for a few years or we could flip him as other pitching prospects become ready.

I'm unconvinced at this point, though. 19:12 is not exactly a great ratio and he doesn't have great stuff.

[dak]

Looking ahead to next year, here's how I'd tier the MLB-ready starters:

Teheran: 2-4 WAR range
Wisler: 1-3 WAR range
Folty, Perez, Blair: 0-2 WAR range
Gant, Jenkins: ???

I'm looking forward to seeing one or more of those bottom 5 guys jump up a tier. Blair and Gant have a good shot, I think. That would leave us with this:

Teheran: 2-4 WAR range
Wisler, Blair: 1-3 WAR range
Folty, Perez, Gant: 0-2 WAR range
Jenkins: ???

[smootness]

I think he's a contender for the 5th spot next year and possibly in 2018, if guys don't progress as we hope. But that's about it. If Perez is still a rotation contender for us in a few years, that is a bad sign for all the pitching talent we've acquired.

[GovClintonTyree]

It'd be great if Perez could establish himself as a solid back-end starter. He could either hold down a rotation spot here for a few years or we could flip him as other pitching prospects become ready.

I'm unconvinced at this point, though. 19:12 is not exactly a great ratio and he doesn't have great stuff.

I'm not sure I agree with your analysis. Consider these three pitchers with these three career BB/K ratios:

2.4/5.1
2.6/6.0
3.5/4.5

Not terribly inspiring, eh? Hardly overpowering.

The first two won 436 games and pitched 36 years in the big leagues, eight all star appearances between them with low 3.00s ERAs. The last was a very successful low 3.00s reliever for a dozen years who happens to have been our pitching coach for the last decade.

The common thread? All sinkerballers. The only lasting exception to a 3:1 K/BB ratio and >7.5 K/9 is an excellent sinker. And we can critique Baby Harang's physique and ratios all we want, but he still throws a heavy ball at 94. He is an uncomfortable, beestinging mofo.

I been watchin' this dude and really all I need to see is a touch better command, which we've seen the last three starts. Put your best infield defense behind him and I say he's capable of throwing 200 innings of 3.30-3.50 baseball on a consistent basis and that's good enough to start for me.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...euscri01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...udsoti01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...cdowro01.shtml

[GovClintonTyree]

I'll tell you another thing. Given the choice between Perez, whom I'm sure Sabre folks would call a "low ceiling" guy, and those "next men up" - Sims, Foltynewicz, and Newcomb - that's a slam dunk for me. I'll take Perez - a grinder, a gamer who gets guys out. You can keep your guys who light up the radar gun and can't find home plate. When the other guys get down below 4 BB/9 I'm interested. I do acknowledge that happens sometimes and that's part of the point of a farm, but I really value command.

[The Chosen One]

I'll tell you another thing. Given the choice between Perez, whom I'm sure Sabre folks would call a "low ceiling" guy, and those "next men up" - Sims, Foltynewicz, and Newcomb - that's a slam dunk for me. I'll take Perez - a grinder, a gamer who gets guys out. You can keep your guys who light up the radar gun and can't find home plate. When the other guys get down below 4 BB/9 I'm interested. I do acknowledge that happens sometimes and that's part of the point of a farm, but I really value command.

Yep.

Perez is definitely a gamer. I truly haven't seen a starting pitcher for us attack and challenger hitters like this since maybe Smoltz. Huddy would try to get you out, Medlen would try to outthink you, but Perez is going after you. Maybe Minor on a good day. Julion can get there sometimes too.

[bravos4evr]

I like Perez and would like to see him stick in the rotation, BUT, he has some issues with command in an era where K's and BB's really matter a lot. If he can keep his FIP around 4.00 (and his ERA too) he has value, but he has tended to be very good and then get absolutely rocked on other days. If you don't have great command, it becomes difficult to get away with not striking out 7 per 9 innings.

[bravos4evr]

I'm not sure I agree with your analysis. Consider these three pitchers with these three career BB/K ratios:

2.4/5.1
2.6/6.0
3.5/4.5

Not terribly inspiring, eh? Hardly overpowering.

The first two won 436 games and pitched 36 years in the big leagues, eight all star appearances between them with low 3.00s ERAs. The last was a very successful low 3.00s reliever for a dozen years who happens to have been our pitching coach for the last decade.

The common thread? All sinkerballers. The only lasting exception to a 3:1 K/BB ratio and >7.5 K/9 is an excellent sinker. And we can critique Baby Harang's physique and ratios all we want, but he still throws a heavy ball at 94. He is an uncomfortable, beestinging mofo.
\

welllll, those are different eras.

The avg K/BB rate right over the past 10 years in MLB is : 8.07 K/9 and 3.18 BB/9 (Perez is 5.33 K/9 and 3.65 BB/9)

during Roger McDowell's career the avg was : 6.18 K/9 to 3.20 BB/9

during Reuchels' career avg was around 5 K/9 and around 3.30 BB/9

and during Huddy's career, league avg was 6.70 K/9 and 3.35 BB/9

so, you see if you look at their performances relative to avg, they aren't as far away from league avg as Perez is.

One other thing is Huddy's career GB% was 58% (no GB% available for the other 2) Perez's GB% is 53.5 in a SSS and his HR/FB is a low 6.3% (avg is 10%) I worry that when Perez has his HR rate regress to the mean, he will need to count on his defense a helluva lot to be successful as he won't be able to fall back on K's or weak flyballs to help him out.

but maybe he can, stranger things have happened.

EDIT: interesting to call him "Baby Harang" because Harang struck guys out at a 7.14 clip per 9 over his career, his good years are always either above that mark, or his HR/FB had a below avg season.

[The Chosen One]

welllll, those are different eras.

The avg K/BB rate right over the past 10 years in MLB is : 8.07 K/9 and 3.18 BB/9 (Perez is 5.33 K/9 and 3.65 BB/9)

during Roger McDowell's career the avg was : 6.18 K/9 to 3.20 BB/9

during Reuchels' career avg was around 5 K/9 and around 3.30 BB/9

and during Huddy's career, league avg was 6.70 K/9 and 3.35 BB/9

so, you see if you look at their performances relative to avg, they aren't as far away from league avg as Perez is.

One other thing is Huddy's career GB% was 58% (no GB% available for the other 2) Perez's GB% is 53.5 in a SSS and his HR/FB is a low 6.3% (avg is 10%) I worry that when Perez has his HR rate regress to the mean, he will need to count on his defense a helluva lot to be successful as he won't be able to fall back on K's or weak flyballs to help him out.

but maybe he can, stranger things have happened.

EDIT: interesting to call him "Baby Harang" because Harang struck guys out at a 7.14 clip per 9 over his career, his good years are always either above that mark, or his HR/FB had a below avg season.

You ain't been here long enough to understand why Willie's referred to as Baby Harang round these parts.

[bravos4evr]

apparently not! lol! explain?

[Russ2dollas]

I think he's long relief or trade bait, I just think Ellis, Jenkins, and gant are better

That said. If we vastly upgrade our defense with Swanson albies and a legit defensive 3b then the sinker may play up

[nsacpi]

apparently not! lol! explain?

After the Harang/Laird interglacial ended there was a massive hole (or as we say nowadays a yuge hole) on the team to be filled. And Williams seemed to be the only one capable of filling maybe half of that hole.

[UNCBlue012]

I'm just happy we have him. We have so many options with Perez. I hope he continues to improve and becomes a staple, though. I was incredibly encouraged to see his velocity improvements this year.

[mqt]

I'll tell you another thing. Given the choice between Perez, whom I'm sure Sabre folks would call a "low ceiling" guy, and those "next men up" - Sims, Foltynewicz, and Newcomb - that's a slam dunk for me. I'll take Perez - a grinder, a gamer who gets guys out. You can keep your guys who light up the radar gun and can't find home plate. When the other guys get down below 4 BB/9 I'm interested. I do acknowledge that happens sometimes and that's part of the point of a farm, but I really value command.

I don't think you will find a "sabre folk" out there that will actually prefer the player that's walking 4 per 9. This preference comes from what the scouts say about their upside rather than what the stats are saying.

I value the rebuttal regarding his ratios, I think it is a solid argument worth considering. However, much like the upside guys in AA/AAA, Perez needs to make adjustments and improve in order to have a successful major league career. You can't really just bet on being Tim Hudson and having a batted ball profile that overcomes an inability to strike batters out at a high level. Maybe he continues to develop and that's his future, but I'm not banking on it any more than I'm banking on Newcomb or Touki suddenly learning to find the zone with regularity. Hopefully one or more of those things happen.

[GovClintonTyree]

I don't think you will find a "sabre folk" out there that will actually prefer the player that's walking 4 per 9. This preference comes from what the scouts say about their upside rather than what the stats are saying.

I value the rebuttal regarding his ratios, I think it is a solid argument worth considering. However, much like the upside guys in AA/AAA, Perez needs to make adjustments and improve in order to have a successful major league career. You can't really just bet on being Tim Hudson and having a batted ball profile that overcomes an inability to strike batters out at a high level. Maybe he continues to develop and that's his future, but I'm not banking on it any more than I'm banking on Newcomb or Touki suddenly learning to find the zone with regularity. Hopefully one or more of those things happen.

Yeah, you may be right about who falls in love with the Newcombs of the world.

I disagree on your next argument, though. I could find 50 other examples of what I used Hudson, McDowell and Reuschel to point out - and that's that sinkerballers can be and are successful without the traditional batted ball profile.

That's not a guess or a wish, that's an empirical observation. And his pitching coach is a guy who carved out a nice career doing it, should be a very good mentor for him.

The last piece of development that needs to take place is that his command doesn't desert him for stretches. It didn't in the minors, looks like it coincides with his arrival in the majors. And he's had several starts in a row where he's had command. So I'm suggesting he may be entering that last stage of refinement to be a successful ML starter without the traditional ratios.

Contrast that with Newcomb and Sims, who are still close to 6 BB/9. No idea why people (Coppy) get so excited about guys like that.

[GovClintonTyree]

I like Perez and would like to see him stick in the rotation, BUT, he has some issues with command in an era where K's and BB's really matter a lot. If he can keep his FIP around 4.00 (and his ERA too) he has value, but he has tended to be very good and then get absolutely rocked on other days. If you don't have great command, it becomes difficult to get away with not striking out 7 per 9 innings.

Right. What I'm saying is, I'm encouraged by the command he's showing. He's walked 4 guys in a month, is going deep into starts, and is winning.

[GovClintonTyree]

I think he's long relief or trade bait, I just think Ellis, Jenkins, and gant are better

That said. If we vastly upgrade our defense with Swanson albies and a legit defensive 3b then the sinker may play up

I like those guys, too, but how they handle their transition to the big leagues is largely theoretical. Perez, on the other hand, has worked through some command issues, speed is up a tic and he's getting actual major league hitters out on an increasingly frequent basis.

I like Gant, too, but that was a little rocky first time through. I like Jenkins, and I really like Blair. Someone on here had talked to a family member of Blair after he got lit up and explained a mechanical flaw that was causing him to leave balls up. I found it credible and plausible, and look forward to Blair's development, along with the other two.

I'd just as soon DFA O'Flaherty, deal Johnson, generally get rid of the placeholders and get on with the future. Everybody's gonna have some growing pains; let's get on with it.

[nsacpi]

I think the walk rate is more important to keep an eye on for our young pitchers. A ground ball pitcher can get away with a lower strikeout rate. But the walk rate is the thing that will determine which of them will succeed at the major league level.

I would hold up Teheran and Wisler as examples to compare the other guys with.

Julion's walk rate rose from the low 2s per nine innings in 2013-14 to the low 3s in 2015. And that was part of the reason his results were not as good. He's got it back down to the low 2s this year and that's part of why he is doing better. Part of the reason. Not the whole story.

Wisler has a walk rate of 2.2 this year versus 3.3 last year. Again a significant part of the reason for his success this year.

Williams Perez went from a 5.8 walk rate in April to 1.4 in May. That's yuge.

Folty is at 2.0 this year in the majors. Last year it was 3.0. I have some doubts he can keep it in the low 2s. But if he does he WILL succeed as a major league starting pitcher.

Blair is at 4.7 in 6 major league starts. He was in the low 3s in AAA both last year and this year. The formula really is quite simple. Get it down to the low 2s and his chances for success go up a lot.

Gant is at 3.0 this year in AAA and 4.0 in the majors. Gotta get it down to the low 2s in AAA. That would probably translate to the high 2s in the majors which I think Gant can live with if he maintains a high strikeout rate.

Sims and Newcomb are above 5 in the minors so far this year. They are not ready. But they have big arms. They can probably succeed with a higher walk rate than the guys I listed above. But not with one above 5 or even above 4.

Jenkins is at 3.7 this year in AAA. For him, I think it has to be in the low 2s for a chance at major league success.