#1 pick in doubt

[msstate7]

If we keep Teheran and viz, our pitching staff is getting pretty good

[Carp]

Currently 4 starting pitchers have an ERA under 4.00. Everything could change in a month, but light at the end of this dark tunnel seems to be getting a little closer.

[50PoundHead]

I have to believe the Twins will play better at some point, but at the same time, the Reds will likely play worse (and likely move a few guys at the deadline as well). I'm envisioning a massive sell-off by the Padres by the non-waiver trade deadline, which could put them in the hunt as well. And I still think the Phillies will collapse like an Italian coalition government.

That said, we should still be the favorites.

[conalthomas]

I have to believe the Twins will play better at some point, but at the same time, the Reds will likely play worse (and likely move a few guys at the deadline as well). I'm envisioning a massive sell-off by the Padres by the non-waiver trade deadline, which could put them in the hunt as well. And I still think the Phillies will collapse like an Italian coalition government.

That said, we should still be the favorites.

I like the metaphor.

[4maddux_cy's]

I haven't studied advanced statistics enough as I should and accept them to be very good and mostly better measurements than in the past. I cannot get over this thought that strikeouts and FIP are the only way a pitcher can be elite. You're telling me Tom Glavine was not an elite pitcher? His FIP numbers and k/9 rates were never overly impressive as far as I can tell.

If I am wrong point out where because I see lots of years in the 4's for Glavine's FIP. I was under the impression that was not good.

[cajunrevenge]

Last time I checked games are won and lost based on the actual runs scored not what some formula thinks the score could have been.

[nsacpi]

I haven't studied advanced statistics enough as I should and accept them to be very good and mostly better measurements than in the past. I cannot get over this thought that strikeouts and FIP are the only way a pitcher can be elite. You're telling me Tom Glavine was not an elite pitcher? His FIP numbers and k/9 rates were never overly impressive as far as I can tell.

If I am wrong point out where because I see lots of years in the 4's for Glavine's FIP. I was under the impression that was not good.

Glavine had a career ERA that out-performed his career xFIP by 100 points. I think that's an alternative way to be an elite pitcher.

Would I be able to identify the next Glavine if I was watching him pitch? I suspect not. So my presumption in watching pretty much any pitcher with non-elite strikeout rates is that he is not going to be the next Glavine.

[thewupk]

I haven't studied advanced statistics enough as I should and accept them to be very good and mostly better measurements than in the past. I cannot get over this thought that strikeouts and FIP are the only way a pitcher can be elite. You're telling me Tom Glavine was not an elite pitcher? His FIP numbers and k/9 rates were never overly impressive as far as I can tell.

If I am wrong point out where because I see lots of years in the 4's for Glavine's FIP. I was under the impression that was not good.

Glavine was a one in a million in that regard. For the vast majority of players FIP is an excellent predictor of future success. It's also important to look at that players baseline. Julio for example has out performed his FIP by half a run regularly. I would expect that to continue for the most part. This year he's out performed it by almost a full run. I don't expect that to continue.

[msstate7]

Currently 4 starting pitchers have an ERA under 4.00. Everything could change in a month, but light at the end of this dark tunnel seems to be getting a little closer.

3 at our under 3.51

[KB21]

3 at our under 3.51

Plus, it seems the bullpen is starting to come together some with Vizzy, Withrow, the incoming Simmons, Cervenka, Krol, and perhaps Jenkins and Gant full time at some point.

[Tapate50]

Really want that no 1 slot tho...

[gilesfan]

We have the worst team in the majors so it would take a bit of "unluck" to pick further down. Our starting pitching staff has been incredibly lucky so far on the year and that is hard to maintain over the course of an entire year.

Teheran 2.77 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 4.07 xFIP
Wisler 3.21 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 4.66 xFIP
Perez 3.86 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 4.45 xFIP
Folty 3.51 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 4.07 xFIP

[nsacpi]

We have the worst team in the majors so it would take a bit of "unluck" to pick further down. Our starting pitching staff has been incredibly lucky so far on the year and that is hard to maintain over the course of an entire year.

Teheran 2.77 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 4.07 xFIP
Wisler 3.21 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 4.66 xFIP
Perez 3.86 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 4.45 xFIP
Folty 3.51 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 4.07 xFIP

Yet as a staff our numbers are: 4.27 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 4.34 xFIP

[dak]

We have the worst team in the majors so it would take a bit of "unluck" to pick further down. Our starting pitching staff has been incredibly lucky so far on the year and that is hard to maintain over the course of an entire year.

Teheran 2.77 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 4.07 xFIP
Wisler 3.21 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 4.66 xFIP
Perez 3.86 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 4.45 xFIP
Folty 3.51 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 4.07 xFIP

Teheran has out-performed his FIP over a large sample size, so he's a guy that I think fWAR undervalues a bit. Wisler's approach may put him in the same boat, but we need to see more to know for sure. Folty I definitely see as a prime candidate to have his performance (ERA) move pretty close to his FIP by end of year.

[Carp]

We have the worst team in the majors so it would take a bit of "unluck" to pick further down. Our starting pitching staff has been incredibly lucky so far on the year and that is hard to maintain over the course of an entire year.

Teheran 2.77 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 4.07 xFIP
Wisler 3.21 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 4.66 xFIP
Perez 3.86 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 4.45 xFIP
Folty 3.51 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 4.07 xFIP

FIP lol.


Folty has a 3.5 K/BB ratio and a solid WHIP. He's giving up the long ball at high clip, but his other numbers are strong. He certainly could regress but acting like he's been super lucky is stupid. Especially on a team that hasn't been that great on defense so far.

[gilesfan]

FIP lol.


Folty has a 3.5 K/BB ratio and a solid WHIP. He's giving up the long ball at high clip, but his other numbers are strong. He certainly could regress but acting like he's been super lucky is stupid. Especially on a team that hasn't been that great on defense so far.

Major League average k/bb is currently slightly over 2.5:1 so his is good, but certainly not elite by any means. His home run numbers will certainly stabilize over time; he will not be able to strand runners at a rate of 87% over the long haul.

I couldn't imagine an instance where I would care what a pitchers "WHIP" is, but major league average is 1.31 compared to his 1.26. Folty is a guy that shows a lot of promise to me, but the point his he's at a bit of luck in the young season.

[bravos4evr]

[NinersSBChamps]

Keep throwing Blair out there and playing Inciarte and we should have no problems losing 110 games.

[UNCBlue012]

It's all pretty exciting. I love what Wisler has done (I'm a self-proclaimed fanboy) , Teheran has been his (mainly) normal self and Folty has me more excited than I've been about a pitcher's upside in a long time.

[gilesfan]

The purpose of bringing up stats for our pitching staff is because the starting staff has been pretty lucky for the most part. If they revert to "normalcy," we may cruise to the number 1 pick.