The Curious Case of Julion Tayron

[The Chosen One]

To trade or not to trade, that is the question.

Mini hot streak or kid finally figuring it out with staying power?

We're finally seeing what the projections were for him as a blue chip prospect.

Could just be he dominates the Mets. If he shows this again his next two starts he should be an All Star and he should bring in a package of no less than 2 or 3 big ML ready prospect bats.

[goldfly]

Colombian Jesus is the truth

Everyone needs to stop talking about trying to trade him

[smootness]

Teheran is a really interesting case right now. The Braves need to determine for themselves what they think Teheran will be going forward and make their determination on that. If this recent stretch is indicative of what he will be going forward, then they probably shouldn't trade him. That would be an ace or near-ace, and at his age with his contract, that should bring a haul in return. Unfortunately, the market, while hot, will probably view him with more skepticism than that and you won't get that full value for him. Also, a pitcher like that would be hugely important in our ability to rebuild quickly.

However, if the Braves think this is a mirage of sorts and that he'll be good but not this good going forward, then it's absolutely the right time to seek a deal. The market is good (few pitchers available), and it's hard to imagine his value climbing higher, again IF they believe he's likely to regress. The Cole Hamels deal is an interesting comparison here, though. Hamels was a more established TOR starter at the time of that trade last year, but Hamels was older and with one fewer year of control left, and was more expensive. However, that return isn't what I'm looking for if we deal Teheran. I want fewer pieces but a couple of real impact bats in return. If we can't get that, even if we don't think Teheran is quite this good moving forward, I still want to keep him.

[Tapate50]

I see what Shelby Miller is going through this year and think moving him may be the best course. And I hate saying that.

[NinersSBChamps]

Unless he's fetching a real life major league player there isn't a reason to trade him.

[KB21]

Everyone seems to have this feeling that Julio is going to regress at some point. The kid just turned 25 four months ago. He's had some ups and downs, but all young pitchers go through that. What you are seeing is the maturation of a young pitcher, and you are seeing a young pitcher who had frontline talent and projection when he was 17 realize that talent and projection. Since May 1st, Julio has a 1.64 ERA with 8.69 K/9 and 1.53 BB/9.

We have seen flashes of this before, but this guy is a matured young pitcher now. I know some are going to try to bring up some advanced stat to show that he will eventually regress, but you know what? Julio has outpitched those advanced stats for 3 years now. At some point, maybe the realization needs to hit that this is who he is. Realize that the scouts are right about this guy and the numbers don't tell the entire story.

Basically, if you trade him, you get a haul. If Boston wants him, they have to give up Moncada, Benintendi, Swihart, and a young arm. If Texas wants him, then they have to give up Gallo, Brinson, and a young arm.

[GovClintonTyree]

I see what Shelby Miller is going through this year and think moving him may be the best course. And I hate saying that.

He ain't Shelby Miller.

[GovClintonTyree]

Remember he hurt his knee pretty badly in early 2015? I don't believe he missed a start. In fact, I don't know if he's ever missed a start. Anyway, he pitched through the knee injury with some uncharacteristic control issues and had a rough first half.

If you discount the first half last year, you get a fairly smooth and incremental development curve for a young pitcher going from very good to great.

Myself, I always liked him, but fell in love when Bryce-baby pimped a home run a couple years ago and Julio drilled him in the ass at 95 and dared him to charge the mound. An MFIKY look.

He's tough and passionate and I want to build around him, not deal him. I understand all the reasons it makes sense and a Miller return, yada-yada, but he should be as untouchable as Freddie.

[dak]

I know some are going to try to bring up some advanced stat to show that he will eventually regress, but you know what? Julio has outpitched those advanced stats for 3 years now. At some point, maybe the realization needs to hit that this is who he is. Realize that the scouts are right about this guy and the numbers don't tell the entire story.

I'm not sure if this is what you're getting at, but I don't see much of a statistical case that Julio will regress from his performance over the past 3 years any time soon. He's young and durable, which is a huge factor in the market (see Mike Leake). He's out-pitched is FIP over a large sample, and there are some concrete reasons why his approach / strengths will allow him to continue to do this. I think it's very fair to value him closer to his ERA than his FIP. Over the past 3 seasons, he's compiled a 3.24 ERA and 3.88 FIP. So I'd suggest he should be valued more into the 3.5 zone. Add on all the other desirables that Julio brings (young, durable, handles bat, limits running game, good kid, etc.), and I think the market will value him and his contract even more than that 3.5 number would suggest.

[nsacpi]

I thought we should value Julion as a 3 WAR player a few weeks ago, and still think so. And we should only make a trade where we clearly win it on an expected surplus value basis.

[NinersSBChamps]

Remember he hurt his knee pretty badly in early 2015? I don't believe he missed a start. In fact, I don't know if he's ever missed a start. Anyway, he pitched through the knee injury with some uncharacteristic control issues and had a rough first half.

If you discount the first half last year, you get a fairly smooth and incremental development curve for a young pitcher going from very good to great.

Myself, I always liked him, but fell in love when Bryce-baby pimped a home run a couple years ago and Julio drilled him in the ass at 95 and dared him to charge the mound. An MFIKY look.

He's tough and passionate and I want to build around him, not deal him. I understand all the reasons it makes sense and a Miller return, yada-yada, but he should be as untouchable as Freddie.

Wonder douche owns Julio though.

[thewupk]

I'm not sure if this is what you're getting at, but I don't see much of a statistical case that Julio will regress from his performance over the past 3 years any time soon. He's young and durable, which is a huge factor in the market (see Mike Leake). He's out-pitched is FIP over a large sample, and there are some concrete reasons why his approach / strengths will allow him to continue to do this. I think it's very fair to value him closer to his ERA than his FIP. Over the past 3 seasons, he's compiled a 3.24 ERA and 3.88 FIP. So I'd suggest he should be valued more into the 3.5 zone. Add on all the other desirables that Julio brings (young, durable, handles bat, limits running game, good kid, etc.), and I think the market will value him and his contract even more than that 3.5 number would suggest.

I would agree. Julio looks like he is fitting into the Glavine and Hudson mold of being able to pitch about a half run above his peripherals.

[Deester11]

Remember he hurt his knee pretty badly in early 2015? I don't believe he missed a start. In fact, I don't know if he's ever missed a start. Anyway, he pitched through the knee injury with some uncharacteristic control issues and had a rough first half.

If you discount the first half last year, you get a fairly smooth and incremental development curve for a young pitcher going from very good to great.

Myself, I always liked him, but fell in love when Bryce-baby pimped a home run a couple years ago and Julio drilled him in the ass at 95 and dared him to charge the mound. An MFIKY look.

He's tough and passionate and I want to build around him, not deal him. I understand all the reasons it makes sense and a Miller return, yada-yada, but he should be as untouchable as Freddie.

Outstanding post Gov.

[nsacpi]

I would agree. Julio looks like he is fitting into the Glavine and Hudson mold of being able to pitch about a half run above his peripherals.

.209 BABIP will normalize at some point.

[bravesfanMatt]

I am at a practice but if someone on a computer computes Julio stats less AJP and you might be surprised.

[dak]

I am at a practice but if someone on a computer computes Julio stats less AJP and you might be surprised.

I think the AJP / Flowers differences may factor in a very small way, but more correlation than causality when you're looking at sample this small, IMO.

[striker42]

Over the last two months Julio has had a 74 to 13 K/BB in 76.2 IP. That's fairly ace like.

I like the comparison to Huddy. Not an elite ace but a top of the rotation guy who out performs what a stat like FIP says he should.

I don't want to trade him. I wouldn't even trade him for an overpay. A team would have to open a vein to get him if it was up to me.

[bravesfanMatt]

Over the last two months Julio has had a 74 to 13 K/BB in 76.2 IP. That's fairly ace like.

I like the comparison to Huddy. Not an elite ace but a top of the rotation guy who out performs what a stat like FIP says he should.

I don't want to trade him. I wouldn't even trade him for an overpay. A team would have to open a vein to get him if it was up to me.

Which is why I said in another thread that he might have pitched himself out of the market. Teams won't give up what it will take to get him. Sure he is available. But his price is too high now.

[Deester11]

Over the last two months Julio has had a 74 to 13 K/BB in 76.2 IP. That's fairly ace like.

I like the comparison to Huddy. Not an elite ace but a top of the rotation guy who out performs what a stat like FIP says he should.

I don't want to trade him. I wouldn't even trade him for an overpay. A team would have to open a vein to get him if it was up to me.

I'm in this camp 100% Striker! I don't think Boston ponies up. If they were interested in giving up the farm, they'd probably go Fernandez or something. I think they want Julio...depends on the pain I guess.

[bravesfanMatt]

I think the AJP / Flowers differences may factor in a very small way, but more correlation than causality when you're looking at sample this small, IMO.

Maybe. He has 111 innings with AJ. 5 ERA. 3.4 is his next highest. He would be a close to a 3 ERA if you throw out aj.