Buy low on McCutchen?

[Enscheff]

First of all, pure speculation on my part.

Who would be willing to attempt to buy low on McCutchen this offseason?

You all know him: 850+ OPS RHed CFer who should really be playing LF. Currently struggling to the worst line (.728 OPS) of his career at age 29. Guaranteed $14M next year with another $14M option for 2018.

The Pirates have Austin Meadows sitting in the minors ready to take over an OF slot. The smart thing for them to do would be trading their aging, expensive star for young talent, and promote the cheap young guy to take his place.

So, could Cutch potentially be the impact OF bat the Braves go after this offseason? What would he cost to acquire?

[mqt]

I don't think Cutch is a good fit. By the time we're contending, he'll likely be declining (if he isn't already). If we're going to buy a bat, I'd prefer a younger player with some team control left.

[Chico]

It would be nice to buy low on Cutch. He's only 29, and I think he has many good years left. He would be a nice marketable name to help out in attendance.

With that being said it would all depend on his willingness and price for an extension. I think the prospects it would take to get him should be spent on someone controllable for longer.

[thewupk]

Depends on the cost of the prospects needed to get him. I would not want to extend him though. I do expect him to not stay this poor but I wouldn't want to pay for most of his 30 year old seasons. I would be content with paying him 14 million for two years and letting him go. He would command mid 20's in salary and he's the wrong age for the Braves to be paying that.

[Russ2dollas]

I don't think the Pirates have the balls. That would be such a bold move. But everyone writing with industry contacts say the pirates can't afford him and Meadows may be better in 2 years.

I'd love to go there, but I wouldn't give up what the pirates would want. Age and contract are a big concern. I'd like to look at him in FA.

[Carp]

If we was signed for more than 2 years, I'd really consider it. But at this point, it makes little sense. While we may be competitive in 2017, we are still another two or 3 years from being among the elite teams. Adding Cutch is more the move of a team like the Mets. The Mets are serious contenders who are built to win now. They can afford to sacrifice a little future for current gains.

Unless somehow we get could him at a discount (none of our top 5 prospects), then I don't really see the point

[gilesfan]

Pittsburgh would want to sell. Is there a shred of data suggesting they have any interest in it?

While he's a little down this year, he's not leaving for cheap. I don't see how it would make sense; he's got a couple solid years left then his contract is over and he's likely to regress from there. So, what does gaining Cutch while rebuilding accomplish?

[Enscheff]

I don't think Cutch is a good fit. By the time we're contending, he'll likely be declining (if he isn't already). If we're going to buy a bat, I'd prefer a younger player with some team control left.

Guess I should have clarified: if the goal is to compete in 2017.

Otherwise, I agree, he isn't a fit.

[nsacpi]

Matt Kemp is my buy low candidate.

[Enscheff]

Matt Kemp is my buy low candidate.

Interesting option. He is still owed $18M per year for the next 3 years. He should be valued as a 0-1 WAR player, so has a "surplus" value of about -$50M.

What would SD have to include to facilitate a trade?

[nsacpi]

i would offer the pads markakis and someone like ellis for kemp and one of norris or solarte

[Chico]

i would offer the pads markakis and someone like ellis for kemp and one of norris or solarte

I feel like Norris is going to be a Brave somehow.

[Enscheff]

I feel like Norris is going to be a Brave somehow.

He is my second favorite option after Castro. I only prefer Castro slightly because he would make a better platoon partner with Flowers. And I could be pretty easily swayed to prefer Norris depending on what he cost to acquire.

[Horsehide Harry]

I think Pittsburgh will probably move McCutchen in the offseason. They'll want a lot as they should but I can't see them pulling the trigger in the middle of their playoff run.

I could see the Yankees jumping in on him and maybe the Mets. The Yanks aren't going to have much when their current crop of aging veterans are gone outside of Sanchez and Judge being close, everything else is pretty far away. And they are going to have a lot of money to spend.

In fact, I think the Braves should be trying to buy low on Locke and/or Niese. Agree to take the salary and send them a box of magic beans.

In fact, if the Braves had the guts (and I don't think they do) and the Pirates are truly serious about contending (I'm not sure they are), then what the Pirates need is a slugging LH 1B with a track record. I could see a Freeman and Viz trade for Meadows, Bell, McGuire, Niese and Locke. The Pirates get a LH power bat for the middle of their order to pair with Polanco to balance out the line-up and get a closer quality bullpen arm. The Braves get a future starting OF, the future at 1B, potentially the future at C and two viable reclamation arms to fill out the rotation.

[GovClintonTyree]

Do it.

[GovClintonTyree]

i would offer the pads markakis and someone like ellis for kemp and one of norris or solarte

I'd certainly make that deal for us. Why would San Diego make it? Assuming logical GM decisions.

[auyushu]

i would offer the pads markakis and someone like ellis for kemp and one of norris or solarte

Why? Kemp has negative value and Norris isn't particularly great either and only has 2 years of control left. Solarte is solid (and having a career year) and has three years of control left, but we'd basically be eating almost 14 mil a year for getting him. I'd much rather sign Freese or Prado for 3B than eat Kemp's horrible contract, he's worthless.

[nsacpi]

I'd certainly make that deal for us. Why would San Diego make it? Assuming logical GM decisions.

Expected surplus value is about the same. Kemp is about a negative 6 wins over the rest of his contract. Norris a positive 5. So negative 1 is what we get.

Markakis is a negative 1. Ellis is a little extra, which I'm willing to pay to fill a position of need (catcher).

From the Pads perspective, the trade is mostly attractive because it swaps out Kemp's remaining salary (excluding the part the Dodgers are on the hook for), which is 18M per year for three year, for Markakis's contract, which is 11M per year for only 2 years.

There are some other considerations that make me think this is worth trying. Having Inciarte and Smith as our other outfielders provides compensation for a third outfielder with less range. Kemp would be moving from a tough hitting environment to a more favorable one. Kemp would also be moving from a bigger ballpark that makes more demands on an outfielder to one that is less demanding. Finally, he is having a relatively down year (with a low BABIP contributing significantly) compared to the prior two, making me think the timing is good for a buy low deal.

[nsacpi]

Why? Kemp has negative value and Norris isn't particularly great either and only has 2 years of control left. Solarte is solid (and having a career year) and has three years of control left, but we'd basically be eating almost 14 mil a year for getting him. I'd much rather sign Freese or Prado for 3B than eat Kemp's horrible contract, he's worthless.

I laid out my reasoning in the prior post. I'm responding specifically to your claim we are eating 14M per year to get him. In my proposed trade we move Markakis. The net of the Kemp and Markakis contracts (when taking into account what the Dodgers are paying on Kemp's salary) is as follows: 7M in 2017, 7M in 2018 and 18M in 2019. I'm not sure where you get the 14M per year. Maybe you are tacking on the projected salary for Norris.

[Bluedevilruss]

I think Pittsburgh will probably move McCutchen in the offseason. They'll want a lot as they should but I can't see them pulling the trigger in the middle of their playoff run.

I could see the Yankees jumping in on him and maybe the Mets. The Yanks aren't going to have much when their current crop of aging veterans are gone outside of Sanchez and Judge being close, everything else is pretty far away. And they are going to have a lot of money to spend.

In fact, I think the Braves should be trying to buy low on Locke and/or Niese. Agree to take the salary and send them a box of magic beans.

In fact, if the Braves had the guts (and I don't think they do) and the Pirates are truly serious about contending (I'm not sure they are), then what the Pirates need is a slugging LH 1B with a track record. I could see a Freeman and Viz trade for Meadows, Bell, McGuire, Niese and Locke. The Pirates get a LH power bat for the middle of their order to pair with Polanco to balance out the line-up and get a closer quality bullpen arm. The Braves get a future starting OF, the future at 1B, potentially the future at C and two viable reclamation arms to fill out the rotation.

Did you mean to put an "or" in that last paragraph when listing what the Pirates were giving up?