Building via Pitching - Don't trade Tehran

[bravesguy]

I have been watching the Braves for many many years and although it has been up and down, I can see exactly what they are trying to do with the pitching staff and I have to say I love it. Like Bill, I think that a pitching first approach is still the best way to build a consistent winner in the mlb. What I don't agree with is the timeline necessary to build a winner drives the necessity to trade pitching talent. People here really want to trade JT for batting at his peak (maybe) if we get a haul so that we can move the rebuild along. I think the rebuild is necessitated on pitching, not hitting.



Let me explain:



If you want to build a pitching staff that can win, win big, and win consistently, then what you need is 3 1/2 type pitchers. That is hard to find but the teams that do win consistently (look 90's Braves, 2000's Giants, Arizona to a lesser degree with Schilling/Johnson). I think that is what Coppy is trying to do with the talent he is assembling. It just takes a while. His goal should be if it is not, is build a staff with 3 1/2 type guys.



Let me pause for a second. I am not a scout. I don't understand the difference between #1 and ace. I don't understand the differences between #2 and #2/#3. I am a simple guy. I see pitchers as top of the rotation and bottom of the rotation. Guys who have a chance to win any game you send them out and guys who can win if the team can score consistently. Let me give the old timers an example. Maddox, Glavine, Smoltz were top of the rotation guys (I call 1/2 guys) even though on here you would argue that they are not ace or #1 guys. I see Avery, Smith, Millwood, Leighbrant as back of the rotation guys.



Remember the goal: Get 3- 1/2 guys. Thus when you think you want to compete (which I think is middle of 2017), you need a minimum of 2 but preferably 3 of these guys.



The challenge is even a #1/2 pitcher needs 2-3 years in the majors to be depended on as a #1/2 guy.



Now to the current Braves:



I believe as this year wraps up the Braves will have identified they have 2 - #1/2 guys (Tehran / Foltz). Notice it has taken 2 years for Foltz to become a #1/2 guy. It almost always does so you can't count them until they become it. Plan on two years in. I do love that we have a handful of back of the rotation guys that can fill out a rotation, but my goal is to get 3 - 1/2 guys (2 at a minimum). So guys like Wisler, Gant, Jenkins, Blair, etc are great, but become filler (or trade bait) once I get my 3 top guys.



So why do I say this? It is because there are three steps left to this pitching rebuild in my mind. 1) Identify who are potential #1/2 guys. 2) work them into the rotation (develop them). 3) Trade off the other parts once they are not needed (for bats, prospects, future #1/2 guys).


That's it. Don't trade away Tehran until you have your other 3 - 1/2 guys. You have 1 now (maybe). You can't win with just 1. Your next is likely not on the roster yet (and it takes 2 years once they get there).



Conclusion:



The timeline for us to be competitive starts in 2017 based on pitching, but really gets set in stone when we find the 3rd #1/2 pitcher. Who is it? Newcome, Sims, Allard, Touki, Fried, Wentz, Anderson, Free agent? I don't know. Identify who it could be and everyone else is used for what they are (filler, stop gaps, trade bait).

[nsacpi]

Winning teams come in all shapes and sizes. I have a simple take. Simpler than any other. You win with good players, not a particular type of good player.

[Hudson2]

If teams aren't giving hitting for pitching then maybe we need to invest pitching for pitching. Like Archer possibly. A top 2 of Teheran and Archer would look pretty good.

[Horsehide Harry]

The OP's approach is an almost certain path to rebuild purgatory, never good enough to get out, never bad enough to tear it all down again.

The thing is alignment of current talent (cost, performance, age curve) with a realistic view of when the young talent will blossom enough to allow the team to truly compete, not just go from a 110 loss team to a 90 loss team. I might feel differently if the Braves had middle of the order bats in the minor leagues that I could believe in but Peterson looks no better than a #4 OF with an upside of a replacement level corner OF. Davidson looks like a bust to me. Ruiz looks like his ceiling is a Prado like 3B. Everybody else is either too far away or too uncertain to even consider. Don't get me wrong, it takes guys like Peterson to round out a good team, a guy that can add a little if needed and not embarrass you. But he's not a guy you say "there's my 5 hole guy for the next 6 years."

Teheran is signed through 2020.

It appears, at least to me, that the young pitching that will be counted on as part of the core staff moving forward won't be ready until 2018 (Newcomb, Toussaint, Soroka, Allard, etc.). The young guys currently at the ML or near (Folty, Wisler, Blair, Gant) all will get their shot to prove they can stick but likely only 1 or 2 end up as part of the long term.

Swanson and Albies are penciled in as 2B and SS of the future and top of the line up guys. But, after that their isn't much, certainly no middle of the order bats.

Trading Teheran (assuming an appropriate return) is a way of bringing in multiple bats to the system that will be controllable for a long enough time that the talent can mature. And no, I'm not saying that it all will mature at the same time. It happens more like a Bell curve, some early, most spread over the middle, some late.

If you take the view that the Braves will only start being good in 2018, that puts Teheran's future value to winning in the years 2018, 2019 and 2020 and that's assuming he stays healthy AND good. He means very, very little to this team for 2017, even if he pitches as well next year as he is this year.

[nsacpi]

It appears, at least to me, that the young pitching that will be counted on as part of the core staff moving forward won't be ready until 2018 (Newcomb, Toussaint, Soroka, Allard, etc.).

Strikes me as unlikely given that Toussaint, Soroka and Allard are in Rome and etc is in rookie ball.

[Russ2dollas]

Mets and Nats have better staffs than us.

For us to even come close to those teams we have to have Newcombe AND Folty be close to their ceilings with Tehran.

Marlins have Fernandez.

That is just in our division.

[Horsehide Harry]

Strikes me as unlikely given that Toussaint, Soroka and Allard are in Rome and etc is in rookie ball.

Possible. But even more reason to move Teheran if that happens.

The thing is that rebuilds almost always take 5 years from start to finish and that's if they are done right. You could say the Braves started rebuilding with the trades of Heyward and Upton (I'm giving the benefit of the doubt, but know that they were a bit wishy-washy at first with the whole "rebuild on the fly" routine) so the team almost certainly has 2-3 more years to go before it's reasonable to expect the rebuild to be over. Keeping Teheran through the middle years of the rebuild is just not a smart thing to do, again, given a good return. He get's older every day. He get's more expensive every day. His contract lessens everyday. He has a chance to decline every day. He has a chance to get hurt every day.

The only real good outcome from a Braves perspective is that he either stays as good as he is (possible) or gets significantly better (unlikely). In either case, his personal, individual performance doesn't mean much to the Braves. He's performing well now, about as good as he can most likely and they are still going to lose 100 plus games. If he's just as good next year, and the Braves go sign 3-5 second tier FA who paper fill a need but don't really address the underlying issues (Prado/Freese, Reddick (Markakis with a stick), Desmond (product of Arlington), then the Braves wills still lose 90 games.

The way out of purgatory is to address needs in a long term way and to bring in a couple of legit stars after 2017 based on needs then.

[bravesguy]

I am not so sure that we are really that far away from competing (not yet winning, but competing).

I think 2017 our pitching staff has the 2 TOR guys (Tehran & Folty) with 3 others (Wisler, Jenkins, Gant, Perez). I really think mid season next year we bring up Newcome and he tries to start his 2 year progression to being a TOR guy. Maybe Wisler puts it together by next year after 2 years too.

We are set at 1B, 2B, SS (assuming we live with growing pains of Albies and Swanson), CF (assuming either Inciarte or Mallex settle in). That leaves a lot of possible holes we could fill. I think the braves are 2 bats away from competing offensively. It can come from 2 of the following C, 3B, corner OF. How we get those is any bodies guess. I would hope we could get one via trade and one via FA.

One guy I would love to pursue is Jake Lamb. I have no idea why Arizona would give him up but he could be our 3B until Maitan is ready. They have moved into sell mode this trade deadline, so maybe a Sims, Rio, Cabrera package would do it. They need pitching badly.

I would also like Lucroy. Maybe a similar package would get him (Inciarte, Jenkins, Blair).

If we filled our C and 3B postions with quality young guys, we would become competitive in a hurry. Kind of like the 91 Braves.

[nsacpi]

I am not so sure that we are really that far away from competing (not yet winning, but competing).

I think we'll be about a .500 team in 2017. I don't think we'll suddenly get much better in some magical year, whether it be 2018 or some other year. We'll be about .500 in 2017 and 2018 in all likelihood. Plus or minus 5 games depending upon Lady Luck.

[Enscheff]

Mets and Nats have better staffs than us.

For us to even come close to those teams we have to have Newcombe AND Folty be close to their ceilings with Tehran.

Marlins have Fernandez.

That is just in our division.

All these "Aces" have a shelf life of about 2-3 years. By the time 2018 rolls around, most of the pitchers you are referencing will be ex-Aces.

How many more times do we have to see pitchers dominate for a few years and then fall off dramatically before we understand this fact? How many young studs do you guys need to see peak for 2-3 years and then fade away to see this? Pitchers simply don't hold up long term in the vast majority of cases.

The key to consistent competitiveness is to have young arms ready to take the place of older arms, and to trade those older arms away before they lose value. For example, Teheran needs to be gone in 1.5-2.5 years from now, no matter how good he is pitching, or how good the Braves are playing. Which is precisely why he needs to be gone NOW if the Braves are not planning on truly trying to compete in 2017.

[Horsehide Harry]

I am not so sure that we are really that far away from competing (not yet winning, but competing). Rebuilding teams get lost in the woods when they start building to "compete" not to win. It's a short circuit of the rebuild process because rebuilding is a painful experience. No one likes to lose. But, if a team can't weather all the bad that comes from rebuilding then they shouldn't do it to begin with.

I think 2017 our pitching staff has the 2 TOR guys (Tehran & Folty) with 3 others (Wisler, Jenkins, Gant, Perez). I really think mid season next year we bring up Newcome and he tries to start his 2 year progression to being a TOR guy. Maybe Wisler puts it together by next year after 2 years too. TOR has a different meaning depending on the point of view. I prefer to use a slotting system of Ace, #1 Starter, #2, etc. Using that system, I see Teheran pitching like a #1, but not an ACE. Folty is pitching like a #3 with #1 potential and maybe ACE capability but he has a lot of growing to do yet. Wisler right now is a #5 who may one day be a 3 but more likely a 4. Jenkens, Gant and Perez are all rotation filler with upsides of maybe being a #4. Blair looks to me like a mirror image of Wisler who has lost all confidence. The real high end guys, outside of possibly Folty are Newcomb, then at A ball. The pitching staff has a lot of options but is a long way from being a finished product.

We are set at 1B, 2B, SS (assuming we live with growing pains of Albies and Swanson), CF (assuming either Inciarte or Mallex settle in). That leaves a lot of possible holes we could fill. I think the braves are 2 bats away from competing offensively. It can come from 2 of the following C, 3B, corner OF. How we get those is any bodies guess. I would hope we could get one via trade and one via FA. Outside of Freddie, you've got essentially 0 power. Albies and Swanson should bring OBP and slot at the the 1/2 spots in the lineup but there is very little run production.

One guy I would love to pursue is Jake Lamb. I have no idea why Arizona would give him up but he could be our 3B until Maitan is ready. They have moved into sell mode this trade deadline, so maybe a Sims, Rio, Cabrera package would do it. They need pitching badly. I hear you. But, why would Arizona give him up UNLESS the Braves made it worth their while in talent going the other way? If you start trading for ML players to come "fix" the holes, you have to understand that you will be sending multiple young players from your minor league stockpile (that you just went through all the pains to build) away. That's contrary to the idea of the rebuild. Sure, you eventually trade from surplus, but it's not something you do lightly in a rebuild.

I would also like Lucroy. Maybe a similar package would get him (Inciarte, Jenkins, Blair). The best way to get Lucroy is to sign him when he is a FA, after the 2017 season. Trading for him only guarantees that you have him through next year and next year isn't a playoff contending year anyway.

If we filled our C and 3B postions with quality young guys, we would become competitive in a hurry. Kind of like the 91 Braves. The 91 Braves went through about 7 years of rebuilding. The 91 Braves had about 25 guys in the minors who went on to have ML careers, some HOF guys. The 91 Braves were built on the patience of not jumping the gun before the time was right. The 2018 Braves can be the 1991 Braves (maybe). The 2017 Braves can't.

[nsacpi]

If you start trading for ML players to come "fix" the holes, you have to understand that you will be sending multiple young players from your minor league stockpile (that you just went through all the pains to build) away. That's contrary to the idea of the rebuild. [/B]

I agree with this. I would use the payroll flexibility we have to pick up free agents without qualifying offers, and make trades for some veterans on contracts that effectively make them salary dumps. That way we minimize loss of young players/prospects/draft choices.

I would consider trading some of next year's international slots since we will be restricted in terms of how much we can pay each player we sign.

[Chico]

All these "Aces" have a shelf life of about 2-3 years. By the time 2018 rolls around, most of the pitchers you are referencing will be ex-Aces.

How many more times do we have to see pitchers dominate for a few years and then fall off dramatically before we understand this fact? How many young studs do you guys need to see peak for 2-3 years and then fade away to see this? Pitchers simply don't hold up long term in the vast majority of cases.

The key to consistent competitiveness is to have young arms ready to take the place of older arms, and to trade those older arms away before they lose value. For example, Teheran needs to be gone in 1.5-2.5 years from now, no matter how good he is pitching, or how good the Braves are playing. Which is precisely why he needs to be gone NOW if the Braves are not planning on truly trying to compete in 2017.

I agree with this. I don't see another Glavine/Maddux/Smoltz happening. Yes, you have to have a big 3 to win in the playoffs, but I see our big 3 being different every year.

I think we'll do more of the Rays approach of ride them hard, then sell high and move on to the next cute young thing.

[bravesguy]

I don't see another Glavine/Maddux/Smoltz happening. Yes, you have to have a big 3 to win in the playoffs, but I see our big 3 being different every year.

I think we'll do more of the Rays approach of ride them hard, then sell high and move on to the next cute young thing.

I think you have to try to find the next Maddox/Glavine/Smoltz, but be prepared to replace as necessary. I think the first 5-7 years will be a lot of turnover to get there..

2017 - Tehran, Folty, + Newcome
2018 - Tehran, Folty, Newcome, + Sims (trade Tehran)
2019 - Folty, Newcome, Sims + Allard
2019 - Folty, Newcome, Sims, Allard
2020 - Newcome, Folty, Allard, + Fried (trade Sims)
2021 - Newcome, Allard, Fried + Touki (trade Folty)
2022 - Allard, Fried, Touki + wentz (trade Newcome)
2023- Wentz, Fried, Touki (trade Allard)
2024 - 2028 Wentz, Fries, Touki (while developing next generation)

Or whoever turns out to be the best 3 TOR guys at the time. This is just an example of a 10 year run.

I think the goal is 3 TOR guys with one could be TOR guy that is new and one "just another guy".

[bravesguy]

Until you have your 3 guys, you can never bring up new pitchers without expecting to lose. During the next year or 2 we can expect to loose because we are rebuilding. Once 2018 / 2019 rolls around we cant afford to have 3+ guys trying to figure it out like we are this year.

[smootness]

I mean, if I thought getting Jake Lamb for Sims/Ruiz/Cabrera was realistic, I would probably be completely against trading Teheran, too.

You said two things in your OP that I think quickly sum up why some people are totally ok with trading Teheran. Rebuilding takes a while, and we could potentially trade him at his peak for a haul. It's as simple as that. Doesn't mean we should, but it definitely is a defense for it.

[smootness]

I think you have to try to find the next Maddox/Glavine/Smoltz, but be prepared to replace as necessary. I think the first 5-7 years will be a lot of turnover to get there..

2017 - Tehran, Folty, + Newcome
2018 - Tehran, Folty, Newcome, + Sims (trade Tehran)
2019 - Folty, Newcome, Sims + Allard
2019 - Folty, Newcome, Sims, Allard
2020 - Newcome, Folty, Allard, + Fried (trade Sims)
2021 - Newcome, Allard, Fried + Touki (trade Folty)
2022 - Allard, Fried, Touki + wentz (trade Newcome)
2023- Wentz, Fried, Touki (trade Allard)
2024 - 2028 Wentz, Fries, Touki (while developing next generation)

Or whoever turns out to be the best 3 TOR guys at the time. This is just an example of a 10 year run.

I think the goal is 3 TOR guys with one could be TOR guy that is new and one "just another guy".

Wait, after all that, you're ok with trading Teheran after or during 2018?

[Chico]

I think you have to try to find the next Maddox/Glavine/Smoltz, but be prepared to replace as necessary. I think the first 5-7 years will be a lot of turnover to get there..

2017 - Tehran, Folty, + Newcome
2018 - Tehran, Folty, Newcome, + Sims (trade Tehran)
2019 - Folty, Newcome, Sims + Allard
2019 - Folty, Newcome, Sims, Allard
2020 - Newcome, Folty, Allard, + Fried (trade Sims)
2021 - Newcome, Allard, Fried + Touki (trade Folty)
2022 - Allard, Fried, Touki + wentz (trade Newcome)
2023- Wentz, Fried, Touki (trade Allard)
2024 - 2028 Wentz, Fries, Touki (while developing next generation)

Or whoever turns out to be the best 3 TOR guys at the time. This is just an example of a 10 year run.

I think the goal is 3 TOR guys with one could be TOR guy that is new and one "just another guy".

This is the key. Everyone has their own opinion of who will be the best of our pitching prospects and in what time frame they will develop. The truth is nobody knows. You stockpile as many as you can and let the chips fall where they may. When it comes to trading, you trade the ones that have the least amount of upside in the view of your scouts.

[Horsehide Harry]

You have to remember that Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz was just Glavine and Smoltz (and Avery) until the Braves went out and signed Maddux as a FA.

As long as you have the money and flexibility you have the option of bringing in an ACE or near ACE from outside through FA should the opportunity present itself. If you tie your payroll up on hole filling FA in effort to be "competitive" then that diminishes your ability to add true game changing talent if/when it is available.

[Enscheff]

Wait, after all that, you're ok with trading Teheran after or during 2018?

Teheran absolutely, without a doubt, 100% certainty should be a trade candidate after the 2018 season to maximize his value to the organization. The entire point of stockpiling all these arms is to replace a pitcher like Teheran when he is shipped off for younger assets.

At that point he will have 1 year of control left with another option year. Assuming he is healthy, he will bring back 2-3 top 100 guys, one of which will be a pitcher 3+ years away.

It's not just about selling high on Julio. It's about setting up a system where young pitchers replace old pitchers before the old pitchers break down and become useless. For every pitcher in his late-20s you sell off that pitches well into his mid-30s, you will have sold off 5 guys in their late-20s that ended up breaking down in their early-30s like pitchers almost always do.

All pitchers should be sold, if they are healthy, when they have 1-2 years of control remaining.