My man DP sporting a .450 avg over his last 10.Originally Posted by zbhargrove
My man DP sporting a .450 avg over his last 10.
Ivermectin Man
I'm just basing it off the language he used... "average"... I think Peterson has the potential easily be an above average player.
I don't know if you've seen him pitch, or making assumptions... but the scouting reports I've read says his mechanics are basically perfect, and is not an obvious opportunity to improve.
I think that's kind of his point... his mechanics are great usually... but it seems like one inning a game they just all the sudden go out of whack briefly.
Right... so is he saying that from watching his games? Or just guessing?
He put the over/under at 11.5 WAR over 6 seasons, that means he thinks he will be a just under 2 WAR a year player on average. And that is an average to slightly above average player. The point he has been making, and that I have agreed with, is that a 2 WAR player in LF combined with Mallex and Inciarte isn't going to really improve our offense much. And we need a huge jolt offensively since we are the worst offense in baseball and it's not even close.
Now hopefully he keeps improving and becomes a 3 WAR guy with low .800ish OPS in the majors, that would be really nice to see. But at this moment in time I don't think anyone could consider that the likely outcome, even if it's possible.
2 WAR per season is the very definition of "average". It is literally in the official explanation of WAR. You think he will be better than that. I think he will be worse, so I offered to make a friendly wager.
Nothing I have read or seen tells me he has "the potential easily be an above average player". That is a 3+ WAR player. Swanson has the ability to be a 3+ WAR player. Albies has the tools for 4+ WAR. Dustin Peterson has the tools of a below average player who probably ends up as a bench bat or starter on a bad team (a role 40 player).
I fail to see how pegging a guy to be an average MLB player is bashing him. Further, I fail to see why it makes you so upset.
Last edited by Enscheff; 07-25-2016 at 12:16 PM.
Peterson .131 wRC+
Big pitchers park too...
Last edited by zbhargrove; 07-25-2016 at 12:37 PM.
This is not a knock on Swanson because I'm a big fan of his too... but these guys are playing at the same level and Peterson is younger.
Peterson wRC+ .131
Swanson wRC+ .118
This would put Peterson somewhere in between the categories of above average and great
As a second round pick, I think Peterson has better tools than you're giving him credit for. Its just taken him a while to start getting it.
Last edited by zbhargrove; 07-25-2016 at 12:39 PM.
Preacher (07-25-2016)
Yup.
One plays SS and one plays LF. I'm not sure why I would need to explain how "tools" encompasses more than the ability to hit. If you seriously think Swanson and Peterson have the same upside in terms of WAR, I don't really know what to say.
And Swanson is looking more like a 2-3 WAR player (as opposed to the star we thought he was going to be), so comparing the offensive output of a LFer to a good-not-great SS is a little silly.
It's fine, keep dreaming on Peterson to be the answer in LF to go along with Inciarte and Mallex. You are certainly allowed to think that OF combination is good enough to win anything. I personally do not, but to each their own.
Last edited by Enscheff; 07-25-2016 at 01:09 PM.
Enscheff....I get what you're saying, but I'm in the camp that believes he'll be much better than a 4th OF. His scouting report from when he was drafted and went to the AFL, are spot on with where is projecting and for a kid that young to do it at AA is AT LEAST pretty darn good. Here's his report:
"Peterson is the type of hitter that will be able to extend the length of the lineup with good plate discipline and pitch recognition. He has the ability to make consistent contact, frequently hitting the ball solidly on the barrel of the bat. And he looks to take the pitch where it is thrown.
Only 18, at this early point of his development, Peterson has a nice, easy swing without trying to extend his capabilities and hit home runs. His swing is polished and mature. There is little movement in his setup, his trigger or at the point of contact regarding his hitting mechanics.
At 6-foot-2, 185 pounds, Peterson's right-handed swing is measured and compact. He swings as though he is happy to be using the entire field. He's patient enough to realize his power will come in time as he fills out with more strength and muscle.
The key to Peterson at this stage is his ability to use his strong hands and quick wrists to get through the ball quickly and with good extension. As I saw when I scouted him in Arizona, he is hitting line drives without much loft or backspin on the ball. Those components generally develop at full maturity." - Bernie Pleskoff MLB.Com
To each his own, but I'm in his camp. Seeing him three times this year...he's barrels balls slightly less than Albies who IMHO does it better than any position player we have.
Garmel (07-25-2016), zbhargrove (07-25-2016)
I never said anything about the OF being Peterson, Inciarte, and Mallex but thanks for putting those words into my mouth. If I had my way (and if Peterson worked out), I'd like to see Peterson in left, Inciarte or Mallex and center (the other one traded), and a big power bat in RF
I also saw D. Pete twice this year and he struck me as the best hitter on the field.. either team. He doesn't swing hard but the ball just jumps off his bat. I think with a bit more effort he would have more homeruns. But what I saw was a guy who could just make a pitcher work. He is going to be better than just average when he puts it all together. Some of his At bats were just amazing. Never swung at a 'pithcers' pitch, but even his outs, he had at least one line drive foul. It is easy to box score scout a guy (we all do with most of our prospects).. but if you see him hit, you would see what people are saying that he is going to be good one day.
A LFer who is "able to extend the length of the lineup" is pretty much the alternate definition of "average player". That's a LFer who bats 6th or 7th. That's a 2 WAR guy. That's an average player.
Again, nothing in that report suggests a 3+ WAR player.
His performance this year rockets him up our prospects list if he keeps it up, IMO
I hope you're right. I hope he turns into a 3+ WAR guy that allows the Braves to have a 12+ WAR OF of Peterson, Mallex and some stud in RF.
I'll put you down in the "over 11.5 WAR" camp.
I am fine with that.
I've watched a good bit of video and read up on him a good bit. When Newcomb is on, his mechanics are perfect and his control is spot on. So it's not something that's wrong with his actual pitching mechanics. When he gets into trouble is when things get out of sync causing him to lose his release point and get very wild. It's when his mechanics are messed up that he has issues.
There's a quote from the Angels manager when he got sent down from ST last year where the manager was very complimentary and said he just has to be able to find a consistent release point.
Count me in. I don't know if I'm driving the bus, but I've got a front row seat.
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