Besides double the walk rate and double the power, Duffy is the same player as Seager.Originally Posted by gilesfan
Besides double the walk rate and double the power, Duffy is the same player as Seager.
GovClintonTyree (08-03-2016), yeezus (08-03-2016)
http://mlb.com/r/article?ymd=2016080...s_atl&c_id=atl
Now it makes a little more sense. Chances are Julio wouldn't have passed a physical before a trade anyways.
So you're admitting that you aren't privy to every little detail.
Neither double the walk rate or power is correct. 5% vs 8%. .180 iso vs .120. And Seager is 3 years older and much less of a defender. Duffy will increase his power as he reaches his prime.
"Yes, I did think Aldrich was good UNTIL I SAW HIM PLAY. "- thethe
Maybe... I don't see anything in his track record or trends to show his power will increase. You're reaching
If Duffy turns into Matt Carpenter, I'll be extremely surprised.
According to Statcast, Duffy's launch speed, launch angle, average distance, and average height are all below MLB average.
chop2chip (08-03-2016)
Didnt have much to trade, so cant really win or lose.
Viz is hurt, and no one was offering a haul for JT.
Everything else is spare parts.
You're a man of of strong opinions. And very little sense.
Duffy does not resemble Kyle Seager in the least. Seager is the second best third baseman in the AL. He's going to have a long, consistent career with good defense, plate discipline and power. Possible HOF. Duffy is a guy who had a decent year who has regressed dramatically.
You really should look at stats sometime. They tell quite a story.
Right. And if my aunt had balls,...
chop2chip (08-03-2016), The Chosen One (08-03-2016)
FIFY. Missed opportunity.
chop2chip (08-03-2016), GovClintonTyree (08-03-2016), The Chosen One (08-03-2016), yeezus (08-03-2016)
no way in hell i take the moore package for teheran. i cannot imagine the uproar if that happened. no chance giles says it's a good deal if we do that. not a chance.
Kyle Seager as a hall of famer. That is interesting.
"Yes, I did think Aldrich was good UNTIL I SAW HIM PLAY. "- thethe
I said strongly consider and JT would likely get a more than the Moore package (if you read).
But, if given the chance to acquire a 4 WAR type player plus 2 other prospects (one of them being their 3rd best) for a 2/3 type starting pitcher, I would strongly consider it. Position players are worth more than middle of the rotation type starters.
"Yes, I did think Aldrich was good UNTIL I SAW HIM PLAY. "- thethe
5 WAR/yr for 15 years is 75 WAR. Average HOF 3B = 67.5 WAR.
He's 1/3 of the way there.
I see him everyday. Rock solid consistent, plays every day, makes all the plays, honed his offensive approach. Should be .280/.360/.500 for the next five years. Not quite as athletic as his brother, but he's a hell of a player.
Last edited by GovClintonTyree; 08-03-2016 at 10:35 AM.
He's had 1 5 WAR season. (on track for another) This year is his best year and the numbers you quoted are at the top. He's essentially at the top of his aging curve and his numbers support it. Yet, you expect that is his career average until he's 33?
Which 3B have a WAR less than 67 and are in the HOF in the modern age of baseball? All I see is Nettles at 68. Seager will at the very least logically have to reach 70 WAR.
There are like 13 3B in the HOF. Chipper and Beltre are locks. Rolen has a decent chance.
Seager is at 21, but lets call it 26 after age 28 season.
To look at some low end 3B in the hall:
Nettles- Had 44 WAR after the age of 28 (played till he was 43). That would put seager at 70 WAR
Moliter- Had 48 WAR after the age of 28 (played till he was 41). That would put Seager at 76
Edgar was a DH
In order for Seager to reach 70 WAR, he will need to either play productively into his low 40s or massively outplay his prime numbers while in his 30s.
Say he averages 4 WAR per year. To reach 70, he's going to have to average 4 over the next 11 years. If he averaged 5, he would have to do it for the next 9 years.
Chipper Jones, one of the best 3B in the history of the game, averaged 4.4 WAR per year from age 29 to age 40.
"Yes, I did think Aldrich was good UNTIL I SAW HIM PLAY. "- thethe
This thread is really strange. Duffy would be a good centerpiece for a Teheran trade, and Kyle Seager is a possible HOFer. Goodness.
5 WAR/year for 15 years? What in the...that means he'd have to do it until he's 40+.
No, no...he's in his fifth full year. 20.4 over last four if you extrapolate this year over 150 games. It'd be ten more years. He's 28. I think he could stay in that 6.0 range thru his next five, then a bit less for the last five. It's not nutty. He's under appreciated. I expect he'll derive 1-1.5/yr from defense - which, along with a lack of propensity for injury, will likely make him superior to Chipper in average WAR terms.
Obviously he'd need to maintain his consistency for an unusually long time, but what I'm pointing out for you guys who are not in Seattle is that he's an unusual player. There's no comparison for Matt Duffy. Giles set me off with that remark. Kyle should have been an all star this year, hands down, but we're out here in the northwest where the only thing people see is Felix and Canó.
Seager is fabulous.
Your entire analysis, and the conclusions you reach, are wrong.
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/193317...icid=151437456
This list is actually stupid. Like, this is one of the worst prospect ranking lists I've ever seen.
Stay in the 6 range (something he's never done) over the course of the next 5 years into age 33/34?
Outside of his knee injury, Chipper played in almost every game until he reached 32. That is normal, peoples bodies break down.
Seager is a good player. He's not an unusual player. Hes not even in the top 3 3B in the majors....maybe not top 5.
"Yes, I did think Aldrich was good UNTIL I SAW HIM PLAY. "- thethe
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote