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Thread: Looking back at last years top-20 drafted -- how's everybody doing?

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    Looking back at last years top-20 drafted -- how's everybody doing?

    The kids from last year's draft have had about a year in the system now, wanted to run through and take stock of the good and the bad in their early careers. All stats shown are cumulative.

    1 - 14 Kolby Allard
    3.20 ERA, 56.1 IP, 66 SO, 14 BB, .215 BAA, 1.03 WHIP
    Allard has been very good, although he's hit a couple hiccups in Rome. Great SO/BB ratio - so far he looks like a strong investment.

    1 - 28 Mike Soroka
    3.17 ERA, 144.2, 130 SO, 31 BB, .252 BAA, 1.49 WHIP
    How can you not love a very young pitcher who's walked only 31 batters in 144.2 innings? Soroka may not profile as a TOR, but the Braves have to be thrilled with his progress. Another good looking draft pick.

    1 - 41 Austin Riley 3B
    .279, .340, .475, 43 2B, 3 3B, 22 HR, 52 BB, 180 SO
    With the 41st pick the Braves added one of the better power prospects in the system and a player that's been heating up this summer. The strikeouts remain a concern, and some scouts doubt the bat speed to be an impact player; but 68 XBHs - the power is there. IMO, the Braves top-3 picks from last year all look like strong investments.

    2 - 54 Lucas Herbert C
    .192, .244, .290, 10 2B, 6 HR, 15 BB, 74 SO
    A torn meniscus wiped out his first year and hit bat has struggled this season - his defense was lauded coming out of HS, but that's not going to be enough if he can't hit much better. To his defense, this is essentially his rookie season. Its inarguable that his stock has fallen though.

    2 - 75 AJ Minter
    0.36 ERA, 24.1 IP, 34 SO, 6 BB, .096 BAA, .057 WHIP
    What. A. Steal. The Braves rolled the dice on the injured arm of Minter and so far that looks like a homerun, he's breezed all the way up to Mississippi and looks like a future high-leverage reliever. His stock gets dinged a little because he's not a starter, but how much were guys like Chapman/Miller worth this summer? Getting a potential closer/8th inning guy from the 75th pick is GREAT value.

    3 - 89 Anthony Guardado
    3.1 Innings -- not worth listing the stats
    Guardado has hardly pitched for the Braves after being a bit of a surprise pick in the 3rd round, safe to say some injuries are at play here. If a 3rd round pick hardly plays his first two seasons - its pretty clear the stock is down here.

    4 - 120 Josh Graham
    3.00 ERA, 48 IP, 60 SO, 11 BB, .214 BAA, 1.06 WHIP
    The converted catcher from Oregon has transitioned to the bullpen pretty well this year - striking out 39 in 30 innings at Rome.

    5 - 150 Ryan Clark
    4.67 ERA, 158 IP, 113 SO, 33 BB, .252 BAA, 1.37 WHIP
    After throwing well last season for Danville (3.08 ERA/.221 BAA/1.01 WHIP) Clark has come down to Earth at Carolina with; his BB rate is up, his SO rate is down and he's surrendered 15 homers. As a big projectable kid with a good fastball, you have to wonder if a move the pen is in his future.

    6 - 180 Matt Withrow
    4.25 ERA, 135.2 IP, 122 SO, 66 BB, .250 BAA, 1.44 WHIP
    The strikeouts are nice, but his BB rates are very high, considering the command issues and the injury history -- probably another candidate to move to the bullpen.

    7 - 210 Patrick Weigel
    3.33 ERA, 162 IP, 163 SO, 66 BB, .210 BAA, 1.11 WHIP
    The 6-6 hurler from Houston with the huge arm has been a revelation this year - Weigel has drastically improved his command from his college days and has re-made himself into a pretty interesting starting pitching prospect. Last year his SO/BB ratio was 1.88, this year its 2.85. He needs to keep improving the control, but he's made huge strides this year against tougher competition.

    8 - 240 Ryan Lawlor
    3.45 ERA, 57.1 IP, 51 SO, 30 BB, .216 BAA, 1.31 WHIP
    For a 'pitchability' lefty drafted out of college, the walk rates are pretty bad.

    9 - 270 Taylor Lewis
    2.03 ERA, 71 IP, 69 SO, 17 BB, .257 BAA, 1.23 WHIP
    Lewis has pitched well out of the bullpen to start his career and has excelled so far in Carolina this season with a .57 ERA and 34 SOs in 31 IPs.

    10 - 300 Stephen Moore
    Moore was selected as a cheap senior before he went on to serve in the Naval Academy, we wish him well!!

    11 - 330 Grayson Jones
    2.93 ERA, 76.2 IP, 50 SO, 44 BB, .215, .132
    Jones seems to limit hard contact and has only given up 2 homers in his career to this point - but the 50/44 SO/BB ratio is clearly a problem.

    12 - 360 Justin Ellison CF
    .242, .304, .383, 25 2B, 9 3B, 9 HR, 21 SB, 7 CS, 47 BB, 101 SO
    Ellison was picked as a toolsy and raw outfielder from the JUCO ranks - and you can see those tools shining through the stats -- doubles/triples/homers/stolen bases -- and lots of strikeouts. Definitely someone to watch - if he can get a base a little more and limit the SOs the rest of the tools are exciting.

    13 - 390 Chase Johnson-Mullins
    3.57 ERA, 63 IP, 53 SO, 38 BB, .265 BAA, 1.57 WHIP
    The 6-8 giant from Shelton State, Mullins was a high-upside pick with projection and a strong fastball but not much else. He's pitched better this year in Carolina's pen, but will need to get the walks under control.

    14 - 420 Trey Keegan C
    116 AB, .259, .338, .310, 6 2B, 0 HR, 13 BB, 19 SO
    Seems to be just depth at this point, I'm not sure how good he is defensively, but almost no power so far and not enough on-base skills to make up for that. To his credit, he doesn't strike out much.

    15 - 450 Bradley Keller OF
    380 AB, .200, .258, .318, 20 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR, 26 BB, 143 SO
    A young HS catcher plucked out of NC that the Braves converted to the outfield, he's still young, but the SOs are eye-popping, and probably too much to overcome.

    16 - 480 Trevor Belicek (traded to Baltimore)
    Belicek pitched very well with Atlanta and was traded to Baltimore along with Bradon Barker for a supplemental second round pick. FWIW; Belicek hasn't pitched well with his new team (7.50 ERA/.328 BAA, 25 ER in 30 IP)

    17 - 510 Evan Phillips
    2.36 ERA, 76.1 IP, 76 SO, 27 BB, .203 BAA, 1.06 WHIP
    Phillips has progressed well for Atlanta, already occupying a spot in Mississippi's bullpen. Good strikeout numbers.

    18 - 540 Gilbert Suarez
    3.75 ERA, 48 IP, 42 SO, 18 BB, .239 BAA, 1.29 WHIP
    A HS pitcher the Braves were able to bring into the fold, Suarez began last season starting for the GCL Braves, but has been pitching out of the pen for them this year and has only thrown 12 innings.

    19 - 570 Sean McLaughlin
    2.36 ERA, 87.2 IP, 81 SO, 32 BB, .239 BAA, 1.25 WHIP
    Sean has been solid pitching out of the pen, although his SO numbers have dipped some this year as he's facing tougher competition.

    20 - 600 Jaret Hellinger
    4.26 ERA, 69.2 IP, 60 SO, 31 BB, .265 BAA, 1.45 WHIP
    A tall and skinny HS pitcher, there was some excitement here as many saw good upside in his arm/frame. Hellinger pitched well last year, but has struggled somewhat in Danville, posting a 5.35 ERA over the course of 8 starts - lefties have hit him hard.

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    The early returns to me look very good, the top of the draft is producing, and Minter/Weigel look like potential steals.

    Several guys from the group are doing solid work out of the pen and there's still a couple upside/lottery picks that may pan out to something with Suarez/Hellinger/Ellison/Guardado.

    Also Jonathan Morales was part of this class drafted in the 25th round.

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    looking like a strong draft...like it better than this year's...early days for both

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    looking like a strong draft...like it better than this year's...early days for both
    It was a good pitching draft. I think the hitting is suspect at best. The Riley pick was probably a reach for when he was picked and he appears to have a slider speed bat (hopefully wrong about that) and he's pretty much the only real hitting prospect. Others are long shot guys or defensive specialists.

    I question if the pitching first identity of the franchise hasn't gotten too one sided, not just with the draft but in all aspects including trading well and being good at bringing in good FA.

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    Thank you for putting that together. It's Looking like a reasonably good draft to me.

    One note, your WHIP for Soroka is off quite a bit. It is at 1.17 for his MiLB career, not 1.49.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Thank you for putting that together. It's Looking like a reasonably good draft to me.

    One note, your WHIP for Soroka is off quite a bit. It is at 1.17 for his MiLB career, not 1.49.
    probably not the only typo hiding in there!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    It was a good pitching draft. I think the hitting is suspect at best. The Riley pick was probably a reach for when he was picked and he appears to have a slider speed bat (hopefully wrong about that) and he's pretty much the only real hitting prospect. Others are long shot guys or defensive specialists.

    I question if the pitching first identity of the franchise hasn't gotten too one sided, not just with the draft but in all aspects including trading well and being good at bringing in good FA.
    I think we've seen recently that you can always trade pitching. In two years when we can trade young controllable pitching our options on trading for hitters will be wide open.

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