Projecting the offseason 40-man roster

[dak]

Now that we're through the non-waiver trade deadline, I thought it would be interesting to look at the roster management situation we'll face going into the offseason. I've broken out sections below for those I feel will be released, those that are locks to be on the roster, and those that are on the bubble. Some of the placements are, of course, debatable.

A few preliminary conclusions . . .
- With this setup, 3 bubble players would need to go. For me, it would be Castro, Banuelos (out of options), and Ramirez (out of options)
- If we decide to call up Swanson, Albies, or Minter . . . that may be at the expense of 3 other bubble spots.
- Another alternative to manage the roster is trades. 12 of the players in the projection are starting pitchers. That seems to be the place where we have some depth to trade from.

Locked into 40-man spots (34)
Currently on 40-man: Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers, Hunter Cervenka, Aaron Blair, Akeel Morris, Arodys Vizcaino, Chris Withrow, Paco Rodriguez, Ian Krol, Ender Inciarte, Daniel Winkler, Shae Simmons, Jace Peterson, Mike Foltynewicz, Matt Wisler, Williams Perez, Mallex Smith, Jesse Biddle, John Gant, Mauricio Cabrera, Tyrell Jenkins, Rob Whalen, Adonis Garcia
Added for Rule 5 Protection: Lucas Sims, Rio Ruiz, Max Fried
Acquisitions on MLB Deals: [Veteran Starter], [Veteran Catcher], [Veteran 3B], [Veteran RH Reliever], [Veteran Bench Piece]

On the bubble (9)
Currently on 40-man: Daniel Castro, Manny Banuelos, Matt Marksberry, Jose Ramirez
Added for Rule 5 Protection: Johan Camargo, Jason Hursh, Steve Janas, Connor Lien
Acquisitions on MLB Deals: [Rule 5 Pick]

Almost certainly gone (8)
Brandon Snyder, Joel De La Cruz, Anthony Recker, Chase d'Arnaud, Casey Kelly, Andrew McKirahan, Ryan Weber, Brandon Cunniff

[Chico]

Locked into 40-man spots (34)
Currently on 40-man: Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers, Hunter Cervenka, Aaron Blair, Akeel Morris, Arodys Vizcaino, Chris Withrow, Paco Rodriguez, Ian Krol, Ender Inciarte, Daniel Winkler, Shae Simmons, Jace Peterson, Mike Foltynewicz, Matt Wisler, Williams Perez, Mallex Smith, Jesse Biddle, John Gant, Mauricio Cabrera, Tyrell Jenkins, Rob Whalen, Adonis Garcia

I can see all of the ones bolded being traded

[Russ2dollas]

Honestly thinking a major trade shakes this up.

[Enscheff]

I would also like to see Recker remain, probably as the the 3rd catcher in AAA. He has shown enough to warrant keeping around as depth.

Camargo is a good depth option to keep. The ManBan experiment should be over already and he needs to be in the BP going forward.

[cajunrevenge]

I hadn't thought about the 40 man roster implications of bringing up Swanson and Albies in September. Guess it would be best to keep them down and let them fight for a job in spring training.

[TheBravos]

Why have they not transitioned Manban to the BP. I think that's his only shot at this point.

[dak]

I would also like to see Recker remain, probably as the the 3rd catcher in AAA. He has shown enough to warrant keeping around as depth.

Camargo is a good depth option to keep. The ManBan experiment should be over already and he needs to be in the BP going forward.

Recker is off to a great start, and has performed well at AAA in recent years. I'm sure he's out of options, so I don't think it's likely the Braves would carry him on the 40-man. He's the kind of guy that should be offered an MiLB deal with a spring training invite the day after the season ends.

[Enscheff]

Recker is off to a great start, and has performed well at AAA in recent years. I'm sure he's out of options, so I don't think it's likely the Braves would carry him on the 40-man. He's the kind of guy that should be offered an MiLB deal with a spring training invite the day after the season ends.

I don't know his service status, but it would be a shame to lose him only to become another team's AAAA catcher. He definitely isn't the answer to pair up with Flowers next year on the MLB roster though.

[nsacpi]

I think Chase D'Arnaud and Anthony Recker are on the bubble list not the almost certainly gone list. I would also add Astudillo and Rojas jr to the bubble list.

[clvclv]

Personally figure Castro and Ramirez are gone, and pretty sure Winkler can be transferred to the 60-Day DL - that clears the Swanson/Albies/Minter spots for the time being.

Even with all the flexibility he provides, I'd guess that d'Arnaud is let go - although I could easily see them trying to bring him back if he doesn't latch on somewhere instead - with Ozzie, Dansby, and Jace all capable of handling both MI spots (even if only in a pinch in Jace's case), Travis has to be viewed as expendable if you need a spot.

Can't see Banuelos protected at this point if you need a spot for Sims/Fried/Ruiz - pretty good chance we might be able to sign him back later like d'Arnaud.

Also can't see Recker kept if his spot's needed - chances are we could get him back later as well, and if they make a move for Mac, Castro, or Ramos this winter it's tough to see trying to stash a 3rd or 4th C away.

Biddle's a pretty easy castoff for me if you need a spot.

Don't think we've got much of a 40-Man issue this winter personally - next winter's going to be the interesting one IMO.

[Tapate50]

Why would Minter need a 40 man spot ?

[nsacpi]

Winkler can be transferred to the 60-Day DL - that clears the Swanson/Albies/Minter spots for the time being.

There is no DL list in the off-season. You are either on the 40-man or not.

[nsacpi]

Why would Minter need a 40 man spot ?

He doesn't. It would be a waste to put him, Swanson and Albies on the 40-man roster.

[clvclv]

He doesn't. It would be a waste to put him, Swanson and Albies on the 40-man roster.

Not entirely - assuming you already plan on breaking camp with all three (which I'm betting on). Really just housekeeping IMO. Castro, Ramirez, and others are likely going to be cut loose during camp if they're still around anyway. Peterson, d'Arnaud, Camargo, Hursh, Janas, etc. are all proving to be better players thus far.

I'm just one of those who doesn't see much reason to keep extra emergency utility infielders and pen guys around during camp when you could better spend that time evaluating more talented players. This was one of the reasons I think I was as confused as everybody else was when we signed Bonifacio and Beckham to big league deals so early - it's not like there won't be plenty of players like that looking for jobs when teams start making cuts during camp - why not devote all those February and March ABs and IPs to guys you think will be more important pieces?

[nsacpi]

i believe that there is no contraint on spring training playing time that arises from a player not being on the 40 man

[clvclv]

i believe that there is no contraint on spring training playing time that arises from a player not being on the 40 man

There isn't. The point is, why waste time looking at guys who are minor league filler (at best) when you can use that time to see better players?

Again, just the way I think. Look at it this way - what are the chances the Braves give chances to the Castros, Ramirezes, and other players of their ilk rather than calling up Swanson/Albies/Minter/Hursh/etc. in September? Then why waste similar time on them during March? If you're convinced that Albies, Swanson, and Minter will be on the roster no later than June, it just seems to be an awfully big waste of time to use up 40-Man spots to keep guys like Castro and others around for Spring Training when there's an awfully good chance you can re-sign them to minor league deals in late March or early April.

[nsacpi]

it seems to me the costs of september callups for albies, swanson and minter far outweigh the benefits

[buck75]

it seems to me the costs of september callups for albies, swanson and minter far outweigh the benefits

I would think that they will be called up around June 1, 2017. We shall see. Dustin Peterson may also get the call at that time.

[mfree80]

I would think that they will be called up around June 1, 2017. We shall see. Dustin Peterson may also get the call at that time.

That would be primarily because of service time considerations. The Braves have not shown themselves to be a team that lets service time influence decisions. If the Braves think they are ready, I think we will see them to start the year next year.

I would also not be surprised to see the service time rules change, so that the benefits of keeping them down for a month are greatly reduced.

[dak]

Updated to reflect changes over the past few weeks. At this point, I'd protect Bradley and Camargo and take my chances with Janas and Lien

Locked into 40-man spots (32)
Currently on 40-man: Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers, Aaron Blair, Akeel Morris, Arodys Vizcaino, Paco Rodriguez, Ian Krol, Ender Inciarte, Daniel Winkler, Shae Simmons, Jace Peterson, Mike Foltynewicz, Matt Wisler, Williams Perez, Mallex Smith, John Gant, Mauricio Cabrera, Tyrell Jenkins, Rob Whalen, Adonis Garcia, Dansby Swanson

Added for Rule 5 Protection: Lucas Sims, Rio Ruiz, Max Fried
Acquisitions on MLB Deals: [Veteran Starter], [Veteran Catcher], [Veteran 2B / 3B], [Veteran RH Reliever], [Veteran Bench Piece]

On the bubble (13)
Currently on 40-man: Jesse Biddle, Chris Withrow, Wilfredo Boscan, Jason Hursh, Daniel Castro, Kyle Kubitza, Matt Marksberry, Chaz Roe
Added for Rule 5 Protection: Jed Bradley, Johan Camargo, Steve Janas, Connor Lien
Acquisitions on MLB Deals: [Rule 5 Pick]

Almost certainly removed from 40-man (10)
Brandon Snyder, Joel De La Cruz, Chase d'Arnaud, Casey Kelly, Andrew McKirahan, Ryan Weber, Brandon Cunniff, Madison Younginer, Jose Ramirez, Anthony Recker