Outfield: 2017 System Overview

[nsacpi]

With the trade for Matt Kemp, our outfield situation has changed. We've also had some minor league performances from outfield prospects that are worth discussing. This makes it a good time to take a look at what the outfields of our full-season teams (including the major league team) will look like in 2017. I'll start with the lowest level (Rome) and work my way up.

Rome: Pache (CF), Ellison, James, Neslony, Baez

The prize prospect here is Cristian Pache. Similar profile to Ronald Acuna, who will likely be a level higher.

Carolina: Acuna (CF), Didder, Moss

It's a shame Acuna has missed so much time due to injury. But I think he showed enough while healthy to get the promotion.

Mississippi: Lien (CF), Davidson, Godfrey, Curcio

A decent group, but not much star quality.

Gwinnett: Dustin Peterson plus some AAAA type signings. Bring back Mel Rojas jr if possible.

Peterson has had a really solid season in AA. But I would be surprised if he gets significant major league playing time in 2017. A year in AAA would be good for him.

Atlanta: Inciarte (CF), Kemp, Markakis, Smith.

The decisions at the major league level will be the interesting ones. Do we keep all four listed above? My view is having four major league quality outfielders is not too many. Guys get hurt. Go into slumps. So having four guys who are good enough to play full-time makes sense. Plus all of the above players have significant platoon splits. This implies we should be resting them now and then against same-handed pitchers. Given that three of the four are lefty hitters, it might make sense to have a fifth outfielder who can hit lefty pitching. I wouldn't be surprised if Francoeur was brought back.

Having said all this, I think we should be open to trading one of the four if we can fill a hole elsewhere or if the return were high enough. I've advocated a Markakis for McCann trade. If the Yankees are uninterested and other similar trades don't pan out, I'm fine with keeping all four.

I would also consider extenting Inciarte. Our strategy with young players should be to extent as many as possible once they've established themselves as solid major league players. These extensions typically give you an AAV that is cheap relative to projected production and to projected arbitration salaries, and you can also add an extra year or two of contractual control.

[rico43]

You need to rethink this with Ventura in the mix. The more you read and hear about him, the more you realize that he's not going to go away. More upside than Didder, Neslony, Ellison or Moss.
You've fallen into the trap of giving college seniors too much credit for a quick start. Those guys are all old enough to be in the big leagues.

[nsacpi]

You need to rethink this with Ventura in the mix. The more you read and hear about him, the more you realize that he's not going to go away. More upside than Didder, Neslony, Ellison or Moss.
You've fallen into the trap of giving college seniors too much credit for a quick start. Those guys are all old enough to be in the big leagues.

Fair point. Guys like Ventura, Concepcion, and Isranel Wilson have more upside than the college seniors. I think though that some of them may be headed to Danville next year and I limited my overview to the full-season teams.

[Dunit24]

I love our OF depth and overview. I'm in the minority but I'm hoping we trade Markakis and platoon Mallex Francoeur in RF next yr

[mqt]

It'll be interesting to see what we do with Wilson next year. I think he has the talent to go to Rome next year, but it'll depend on how he finishes this year in Danville.

I'd definitely pencil in Ventura to start in Danville unless he's called up soon, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him in Rome by the end of July.

Lien is one in not sure on yet. I wonder if they'll push him to AAA if he closes out strong this year.

Finally, I wouldn't be surprised if they pushed Neslony to Carolina, especially if Wilson proves ready for Rome.

[Horsehide Harry]

Said a different way, the only real OF talent in the minor leagues above short season ball will be Pache, Acuna and Peterson.

The only real worthwhile OF at the major leagues is Ender, and then only IF he plays CF and is able to lead off.

The OF situation is really pretty bleak all the way around. Really need Pache and/or Acuna to turn into Andruw.

[Russ2dollas]

Mallex can't play rf bc of his arm.

Mallex is prob a 4th of. I'd prefer him to play full time to see if he's more, but he got hurt.

Markakis should go but I'm not sure who would want him.

Peterson could be an option if we clear markakis. I think he is prob a year away.

I think we are going to look hard at making a big trade in the off season and inciarte or mallex goes.

[nsacpi]

Said a different way, the only real OF talent in the minor leagues above short season ball will be Pache, Acuna and Peterson.

The only real worthwhile OF at the major leagues is Ender, and then only IF he plays CF and is able to lead off.

The OF situation is really pretty bleak all the way around. Really need Pache and/or Acuna to turn into Andruw.

In terms of upside potential, here is how I would rank them:

1) Acuna
2) Pache
3) Inciarte
4) Smith
5) Peterson

There isn't much separation between the guys on this list. And the ones with the most upside are a few years away.

We will need a little luck the next couple years in terms of how Kemp and Markakis (assuming we keep both) do relative to the typical aging curves. The aging curve for all players is pretty smooth and slopes downward. But each year there are individual players who are able to do well relative to the aging curve.

The other point I would make is that as players get older there is some migration from infield to outfield. In general teams keep their best prospects at a premium position as long as possible before coming to the conclusion they need to be moved. So there is a possibility that some of our outfielders of the future are not playing there at the moment.

[mqt]

Said a different way, the only real OF talent in the minor leagues above short season ball will be Pache, Acuna and Peterson.

The only real worthwhile OF at the major leagues is Ender, and then only IF he plays CF and is able to lead off.

The OF situation is really pretty bleak all the way around. Really need Pache and/or Acuna to turn into Andruw.

To be fair, it's not like most teams have a plethora of quality OF prospects flowing through their system. Pache and Acuna have some pretty impressive potential and Peterson has the potential to be a quality starting corner OF. Then we still have some guys like Davidson, Didder, Baez and Wilson with at least a chance to develop and some 4th OF types like Lien. A lot would have to go right for these guys, but that's not untrue of any system. I don't think it's a strength of our system by any means, but I don't think it's necessarily bleak.

[nsacpi]

TI don't think it's a strength of our system by any means, but I don't think it's necessarily bleak.

That's a fair assessment. But I think those who think we have a desperate need for power will have a more negative take. I would rather have good players regardless of the particulars. To the extent that power is a special attribute that has particular importance for this team, the addition of Kemp should help some in the short term.

[smootness]

Really need Pache and/or Acuna to turn into Andruw.

Yeah, that is not happening.

[Jay2033]

Yeah, that is not happening.

Have you seen Acuna play the OF? He may not be Andrew but he's darn good!

[cajunrevenge]

I think we should keep all 4 outfielders going into 2017. Kemp's an injury risk and Inciarte and Mallex spent a lot of time on the DL this year. Odds are that our 4th outfielder will start 50% or so of games because someone will be injured. With Peterson starting at AAA this would give us tremendous depth. We should be set to graduate atleast one outfielder every year for a few years. Peterson in 2017, Davidson in 2018, Acuna in 2019, etc. I am not going to rank him highly but I still have some faith in Braxton Davidson to be a productive major league player.

[Enscheff]

No analysis is required to conclude the Braves OF is not good enough to win now, next year, or any year after. The Kemp acquisition made it even worse because now there is no position in the MLB OF to upgrade. They are locked into an awful OF for the next 2 years.

The Braves need to acquire impact talent in the OF because as of now there is none of it in the system. The problem is they have hitched their wagon to Kemp, Markakis and one of Inciarte or Mallex. That simply isn't good enough to be even a .500 team.

[cajunrevenge]

Lol, the Giants have won world series with Gregor Blanco starting in a corner outfield spot. The 2012 Giants won the world series with Angel Pagan, Melky Cabrera, and Gregor Blanco as their starting OF. They got Pence at mid season but he sucked and didnt even have 300 at bats that year for them. Angel Pagan was the masher of the group with his 11 home runs. Maybe the Giants should send back that trophy since their OF wasnt good enough to be a .500 team. Their 2014 championship outfield of Pence, Pagan, Blanco, and Morse was a little better. 44 home runs between their top 4. Pence the leading slugger with 20 home runs in 700 at bats. Now to the 2016 team that is leading the NL West. No outfielder with more than 8 homers. Top 4 of Pence, Pagan, Span, Williamson is truely an outfield of legends.

[nsacpi]

An outfield rotation of Kemp, Markakis, Inciarte and Smith would likely be close to league average in 2017.

[Enscheff]

Lol, the Giants have won world series with Gregor Blanco starting in a corner outfield spot. The 2012 Giants won the world series with Angel Pagan, Melky Cabrera, and Gregor Blanco as their starting OF. They got Pence at mid season but he sucked and didnt even have 300 at bats that year for them. Angel Pagan was the masher of the group with his 11 home runs. Maybe the Giants should send back that trophy since their OF wasnt good enough to be a .500 team. Their 2014 championship outfield of Pence, Pagan, Blanco, and Morse was a little better. 44 home runs between their top 4. Pence the leading slugger with 20 home runs in 700 at bats. Now to the 2016 team that is leading the NL West. No outfielder with more than 8 homers. Top 4 of Pence, Pagan, Span, Williamson is truely an outfield of legends.

You do realize there is more to being a good OF than hitting HRs right? The Braves trio of Kemp, Inciarte and Marakis will be lucky to post a total WAR of 5 next season. Without even looking I'm willing to bet those Giants OF units easily bested that mark.

Would you like to try again, or are you sticking with your assertion that those Giants teams fielded an OF even remotely as crappy as the Braves are set to field?

[Enscheff]

An outfield rotation of Kemp, Markakis, Inciarte and Smith would likely be close to league average in 2017.

Hmm... 0-1 win from Kemp. 0-1 win from Markakis. 2-3 wins from Inciarte. Limited playing time for Mallex, probably in LF.

I have a very hard time seeing an average OF unit there.

[cajunrevenge]

You do realize there is more to being a good OF than hitting HRs right? The Braves trio of Kemp, Inciarte and Marakis will be lucky to post a total WAR of 5 next season. Without even looking I'm willing to bet those Giants OF units easily bested that mark.

Would you like to try again, or are you sticking with your assertion that those Giants teams fielded an OF even remotely as crappy as the Braves are set to field?

Well none of the legends in the Giants outfield right now are above 1.5 WAR and all but 1 are rated negative on defense. 2014 the best WAR was Pence at 4.7 which is a good example of why I hate WAR, he had a .332 OBP and .445 slugging. Not even an .800 OPS and he was in the negative on defense. I just dont know that we have anyone capable of getting on base at a .330 rate and slug .450. Next best WAR was braves castoff Gregor Blanco. I seem to recall hearing a lot of "You cant win championships with Gregor Blanco in the outfield" over and over when he was here. After that was the legend known as Angel Pagan and his 1.8 WAR. After that is Morse with 0.9 WAR, decent offensively but a butcher in the field. 2012 was the legendary outfield of Angel Pagan, the Melk Dud, and Gregor Blanco with Pence coming at midseason but sucking horribly. God help us if we dont have prospects who can match that outfield of first ballot hall of famers.