Braves offense and 2017

[chop2chip]

He had a 748 OPS with the Braves coming into today compared to a 774 OPS with the Padres. That will have gone up after today. He's been fairly average overall on offense.

After today is offensive numbers are better (via wOBA) than they were with the Padres, but that's aside the point. Kemp has been good offensively, but moving forward we need him to be a 120-130 wRC player. I think he still has that ability, so I'm cautiously optimistic, but I hope we aren't banking on him becoming that player

[thewupk]

I expect it'll level off higher. He's been creeping up after a slow start. He's been in the middle of the offense during this streak. An .800 OPS outside of LA and SD is not an unreasonable expectation.

And while the latest thing to make fun of on this site is the idea of "protection," he is contributing by putting one more legitimate hitter in a lineup that only has a few. I think of that as approaching "critical mass." I suppose you could quantify that by looking at team runs before and after, while taking it with a grain of salt because others have come alive. It is popular to treat all those as independent events, but I think they're at least somewhat interdependent. Of course, that not quantifiable, more of a feel thing. And with most of you, if you can't measure it, it didn't happen. Amirite?

No need to quantity anything. Good or bad hitters simply don't make others around them hit any differently. Baseball is a team game that's based mainly around individual play. I would hope Kemp can put up an 800 OPS with the Braves next season as that would help the offense out a lot.

[chop2chip]

I expect it'll level off higher. He's been creeping up after a slow start. He's been in the middle of the offense during this streak. An .800 OPS outside of LA and SD is not an unreasonable expectation.

And while the latest thing to make fun of on this site is the idea of "protection," he is contributing by putting one more legitimate hitter in a lineup that only has a few. I think of that as approaching "critical mass." I suppose you could quantify that by looking at team runs before and after, while taking it with a grain of salt because others have come alive. It is popular to treat all those as independent events, but I think they're at least somewhat interdependent. Of course, that not quantifiable, more of a feel thing. And with most of you, if you can't measure it, it didn't happen. Amirite?

This "interdependency" thing is actually quantifiable and generally accepted within statistics community. There is a lot of value from replacing a mediocre hitter with even an average hitter.

[GovClintonTyree]

This "interdependency" thing is actually quantifiable and generally accepted within statistics community. There is a lot of value from replacing a mediocre hitter with even an average hitter.

Interesting. And I believe it. Tell thewupk all about it. He says it's foolishness.

[thewupk]

Interesting. And I believe it. Tell thewupk all about it. He says it's foolishness.

There is a difference between saying Kemp helps the offense and saying Kemp makes Freeman a better hitter.

[bravesguy]

You guys are arguing foolishly. Of course stats are important in evaluating how a player has performed. And maybe in how they will perform. But a stat only shows 1 thing. In order to evaluate a player, you have to look at many things. That is data analysis. It is easy for a fan to lock onto one stat and say that it is the gold standard, but it doesn't work that way.

Then you add in the fact that streaks occur (both cold and hot) so sample size is important in evaluating a player, but when do you evaluate? right after a cold streak or right before a cold streak. It makes a big difference. If you look at the whole of a season (lets look right now for our team) and you see a better measure.

Inciarte right now looks like a good year. Adonis right now looks like his best year. Freeman right now looks like his best year. Marki looks average to below average for him. Peterson looks like his best year. Cant judge Swanson. So what does that say going forward? Will they have their best year next year?

Then you have to take in the whole team pitcher. What is Inciarte / Adonis / Freeman / Kemp all hit 2 out of 4 in a game (all being singles)? If they are spread out over the game, the Braves could score 0 runs. If they are clustered together 2-4 runs could be scored. Zero runs scored helps the team win less than four runs scored. Are the stats any different? We commonly praise a pitcher for scattering hits through a game. "Tehran scattered 5 hits over six scoreless innings" is much better than "Tehran pitched 5 scoreless innings before being chased from the game while allowing 5 hits, 3 runs in the sixth".

To Me...this team seems to be trending up and with a couple replacements (2B, C, SS maturing) I think it could notch up. Give me 3 consistent SP and that notch could push us into competitiveness (maybe even for WC).

[GovClintonTyree]

There is a difference between saying Kemp helps the offense and saying Kemp makes Freeman a better hitter.

Everyone who's ever tried to hit a nine-run home run understands why Kemp makes Freeman a better hitter.

[thewupk]

Everyone who's ever tried to hit a nine-run home run understands why Kemp makes Freeman a better hitter.

I agree. I can see why why pitchers would rather pitch to the best 1B in the game compared to a league average outfielder. As a pitcher I know who I'd rather go after.

[Runnin]

I don't care if Kemp makes Freeman better or not, but I'm tickled pink having two 30 HRs guys in the middle of the order.

[thewupk]

I don't care if Kemp makes Freeman better or not, but I'm tickled pink having two 30 HRs guys in the middle of the order.

Certainly an improvement over what we were running out there. Hopefully his walk rate stays the same so he can give the team an OPS near 800.

[thewupk]

Anyone have Garcia's WAR since he got called back up? I know it's a SSS, but you know I live for those haha

Not a way to break down defense in game logs that I know of. But he has a 763 OPS since the callup compared to a league wide 783 OPS for 3B.

[nsacpi]

i would project garcia at 1 to 1.5 WAR next year if he gets over 600 at bats

fwiw that would also be my projection for Jace Peterson and Kelly Johnson if they received over 600 ABs while playing third.

[msstate7]

Not a way to break down defense in game logs that I know of. But he has a 763 OPS since the callup compared to a league wide 783 OPS for 3B.

Ugh... I bet donaldson's .982, machado's .919, Bryant's .982, and arenado's .944 distort it some. Of course, 3 of those are playoff teams, so I guess a high ops at 3b is huge

[thewupk]

Ugh... I bet donaldson's .982, machado's .919, Bryant's .982, and arenado's .944 distort it some. Of course, 3 of those are playoff teams, so I guess a high ops at 3b is huge

3B offense is on the way up right now after a few years of subpar performances there across the league. In contrast though is that the league average OPS for LF is 737 this year. I guess that is to be expected after the steroid era since that's where mashers with poor defense went and those guys seem to fade pretty quick into their 30's now without extra help.

[msstate7]

3B offense is on the way up right now after a few years of subpar performances there across the league. In contrast though is that the league average OPS for LF is 737 this year. I guess that is to be expected after the steroid era since that's where mashers with poor defense went and those guys seem to fade pretty quick into their 30's now without extra help.

If we sign a 3b, I hope its valbuena or Prado on like a 2-year deal

[thewupk]

If we sign a 3b, I hope its valbuena or Prado on like a 2-year deal

Prado would be a great stopgap.

[auyushu]

Prado would be a great stopgap.

He'd be pretty ideal as long as he doesn't cost a pick.

[bravesfanMatt]

Prado would be a great stopgap.

So we are willing pay 10 -11 million a year to increase 3B from a .730ish OPS to a .780ish OPS..

[msstate7]

So we are willing pay 10 -11 million a year to increase 3B from a .730ish OPS to a .780ish OPS..

That must be a huge difference.

Prado oWAR -- 3.3
Garcia oWAR -- 1.1

[thewupk]

So we are willing pay 10 -11 million a year to increase 3B from a .730ish OPS to a .780ish OPS..

And improved defense. Prado has been a 2-3 WAR player the last 4 seasons. If we can get him for 10-11 million a year that would be great. IMO Garcia tops out as a 1 WAR player. So while that would be great for league minimum it doesn't really improve the team. Garcia is currently the type of player the 2014 Braves needed at 2nd or center. League min guy who isn't costing you wins. But it is a position that needs to be upgraded.