2018 Offseason

[thewupk]

It is a couple of years away and some (maybe most) of the FA's to be will sign extensions by then but who would be your #1 priority? I would go with Machado. I think he is the perfect combination of offense and defense that could anchor the team for a decade. He would continue a line of great and HOF Braves 3B.

[smootness]

Of course Machado would be amazing. It's just that he's going to cost a TON and almost certainly will not leave Baltimore.

[thewupk]

Of course Machado would be amazing. It's just that he's going to cost a TON and almost certainly will not leave Baltimore.

I'd offer it to him if given the chance. I think he's as sure of a bet as there is in that class.

[UNCBlue012]

Machado is my choice, easily. Harper is incredible, but I don't trust his consistency as much as Machado - in other words, Harper has more talent and upside, but he's less consistent.

That lineup would be incredible, and this is just a complete guess:
Inciarte CF
Albies 2B
Freeman 1B
Machado 3B
Swanson SS
D. Pete LF
Mac C? Even in 2018? I have no idea lol
Pitcher
M. Smith RF

That would be a damn good lineup.

[Horsehide Harry]

The Braves aren't going to have the money to do that because they will limit their patrol flexibility by tying it up with lesser talents over the next couple of years trying to reload.

[thewupk]

The Braves aren't going to have the money to do that because they will limit their patrol flexibility by tying it up with lesser talents over the next couple of years trying to reload.

Depends what the payroll will be. If it stays at 100 million like it has the last decade plus then Machado or any other top shelf FA will never come to Atlanta. If it goes to the 120 range that some have speculated (Ill believe it when I see it) then yes they will have the money to do it if they decide that's the direction they want to go in.

[smootness]

Machado is my choice, easily. Harper is incredible, but I don't trust his consistency as much as Machado - in other words, Harper has more talent and upside, but he's less consistent.

That lineup would be incredible, and this is just a complete guess:
Inciarte CF
Albies 2B
Freeman 1B
Machado 3B
Swanson SS
D. Pete LF
Mac C? Even in 2018? I have no idea lol
Pitcher
M. Smith RF

That would be a damn good lineup.

Yes, it certainly would. I would change it up a tad, though. I'd go:

Albies
Swanson
Machado
Freeman
Kemp
Catcher
Inciarte
Pitcher
Mallex

[smootness]

Depends what the payroll will be. If it stays at 100 million like it has the last decade plus then Machado or any other top shelf FA will never come to Atlanta. If it goes to the 120 range that some have speculated (Ill believe it when I see it) then yes they will have the money to do it if they decide that's the direction they want to go in.

I think by 2018 the payroll will be in the $140-150M range.

[thewupk]

Concerning future payroll. Mac is only signed through 2018 with a 2019 club option. So he could very well be off the books before Machado or anyone from that class is signed. Kemp is gone after 2019. So even in a scenario where you are paying Kemp in 2019 and Mac 15 million in 2019 there is no rule that you can't back load Machado's contract for 1 season. Freeman is the only significant contract that would currently be on the books well into a huge contract in that off season. If they desire to do something like that they would have the capability to do it if they keep any significant moves right now limited through the 2019 season.

[Horsehide Harry]

Concerning future payroll. Mac is only signed through 2018 with a 2019 club option. So he could very well be off the books before Machado or anyone from that class is signed. Kemp is gone after 2019. So even in a scenario where you are paying Kemp in 2019 and Mac 15 million in 2019 there is no rule that you can't back load Machado's contract for 1 season. Freeman is the only significant contract that would currently be on the books well into a huge contract in that off season. If they desire to do something like that they would have the capability to do it if they keep any significant moves right now limited through the 2019 season.

I don't think McCann waives his no trade without getting 2019 guaranteed.

And you are right that if they limit their signings then it wouldn't be a problem. We'll see if they do that.

As for payroll, what I think Liberty will do is raise the payroll to ~$140M and spend the next year telling everyone how committed they are to putting a good product on the field as evidenced by their raising the payroll. They will fail to mention that $140M would be about equivalent to where it was in the early 2000's on a PV basis and that they have been funding the team less and less every year on a PV basis by keeping the payroll essentially static.

[thewupk]

I don't think McCann waives his no trade without getting 2019 guaranteed.

And you are right that if they limit their signings then it wouldn't be a problem. We'll see if they do that.

As for payroll, what I think Liberty will do is raise the payroll to ~$140M and spend the next year telling everyone how committed they are to putting a good product on the field as evidenced by their raising the payroll. They will fail to mention that $140M would be about equivalent to where it was in the early 2000's on a PV basis and that they have been funding the team less and less every year on a PV basis by keeping the payroll essentially static.

As I mentioned even guaranteeing that option in 2019 wouldn't be that big of a deal. As far as Liberty finally increasing the payroll to an acceptable level. I would love that. And you are right about it virtually being the same on a PV basis as our early 2000's payroll. I've always been annoyed about the talk of the payroll never going down. It's been at ~100 million for 15 years or so and 15 years ago that was amazing. As salaries have exploded it's become garbage. If they do increase it to the 140 million range the Braves will be able to accomplish a lot.

[Carp]

I actually think it will go to $140M which is essentially the PV equivalent of what the budget was in 2003.

But, if they do what they've said they want to do, there likely won't be any flexibility in 2018.

Freeman: $21M
Kemp: $18M
Teheran: $8M
*McCann: $17M
Inciarte: ~$5M
Swanson: ~$2.5M
SP1: ~$14M
SP2: ~$14M
Pen: ~$15M
Bench: ~$5M
Raises for Young/minimum guys: ~7.5M

Total projected payroll: $127M (was closer to $140M until Markakis fell off due to end of contract, but his replacement not figured into above numbers)

Now, there are a lot of factors that could change the above: they don't trade for McCann or don't take on his money and/or the FA catcher they sign is not very good and doesn't cost much; the pitching they bring in this offseason is not 2 WAR equivalent so they don't cost $14M each or they are signed for terms shorter than three years (if they go this route, it takes the compete in 2017 to hope to get lucky to compete in 2017. The pen numbers are probably pretty close given salary inflation and may be understated. The bench numbers assumes a decent back up catcher ($2-$4M) and a bunch of filler - but it they go the bring a veteran or two in for their presence route it may be higher than stated.

The offseason starting in a couple of months will begin to show what the flexibility will be like in FA 2018/19. If they trade for McCann and take his money, if they don't trade Kemp, Markakis or Inciarte, if they sign or trade for a couple of 2 WAR pitchers who will still be around after 2018 and will cost $14M each or more by that time, then they won't have any money. That's what competing in 2017 means.

If you think the odds are good for the Braves in 2017 and 2018, then that's probably OK. If you think, like me, that true competition in 2017 is a pipe dream then you see it as tying your hands for the future when the odds are better in your favor.

For one, I'm pretty sure we're above .500 over our last 90-100 games. So fielding a competitive team in 2017 is hardly a pipe dream.


But to address your payroll numbers, they're pretty flawed. For one, it's very unlikely we spend 15 million on the pen. Even in 2014 when our payroll was the highest it's ever been, we only spent about 14.25 million. Unless we trade back for Kimbrell, our BP will continue to be built by bargain players.

Secondly, it's also very unlikely we spend 28 million dollars on two pitchers. But even if we did, you fail to realize that based on what the FO is saying, whatever pitchers we may sign would likely be on short term deals (like 3 years or less), which would have a very minimal impact on signing future players. Also, ditto on wupk said about Mac and Kemp.

[Horsehide Harry]

For one, I'm pretty sure we're above .500 over our last 90-100 games. So fielding a competitive team in 2017 is hardly a pipe dream. They were above .500 for the first half of 2015 and finished with the third worst record in baseball. Freeman has had a career year and probably doesn't have much more to offer than he has this year, Markakis and Kemp are on the wrong side of 30 and more likely to decline than improve, Folty and Wisler aren't much improved and the other young pitchers have shown they aren't ready. Sometimes fool's gold looks just like gold, but it isn't.


But to address your payroll numbers, they're pretty flawed. For one, it's very unlikely we spend 15 million on the pen. Even in 2014 when our payroll was the highest it's ever been, we only spent about 14.25 million. Unless we trade back for Kimbrell, our BP will continue to be built by bargain players. I am accounting for ongoing inflation of relief pitching salaries. It's possible the Braves will go with a bunch of no name guys but even if you have 6 pitchers at an average of $2.5M apiece that's $15M.

Secondly, it's also very unlikely we spend 28 million dollars on two pitchers. But even if we did, you fail to realize that based on what the FO is saying, whatever pitchers we may sign would likely be on short term deals (like 3 years or less), which would have a very minimal impact on signing future players. Also, ditto on wupk said about Mac and Kemp.If they sign a guy this offseason to a three year deal, then he's on the books through the 2019 season. My response was based on an ability to play in the 2018/2019 FA market.

If I had to predict the April record for next year right now I would say 10-14 and then the team would bump along at .500 for a while before eventually finishing somewhere in the 75-78 win range. I'm basing that on what I think they will do so it might change if they diverge from their previous comments.

[smootness]

In regard to the bullpen, it's hard to see us rolling with a pen that has an average salary of $2.5 million. At a minimum, I would think we'll have Minter, Cabrera, and Simmons, and then you have guys like Gant, Povse, Morris, Weber, etc. It's really hard to see us having an average salary of anywhere close to $2.5 million for the bullpen.

[Horsehide Harry]

In regard to the bullpen, it's hard to see us rolling with a pen that has an average salary of $2.5 million. At a minimum, I would think we'll have Minter, Cabrera, and Simmons, and then you have guys like Gant, Povse, Morris, Weber, etc. It's really hard to see us having an average salary of anywhere close to $2.5 million for the bullpen.

I think it depends on closer. If they sign a recognized closer, which would mean Cabrera or someone younger isn't it, that one player could be close to $10M per year. Even IF it's Viz in 2018, and he is closer between now and then and effective, it probably means he's making in the $5M range. A $10M close means the other 5 average $1M apiece or if a $5M closer then $2M apiece. O'Flaherty got 2 years $7M for Oakland for 14&15. He then turned around coming off a horrible season to get $1.75M from Pitt.

Just using today's in house guys: I think you could easily see Viz at $5M, Withrow and Krol at $2.5 each, Cabrera and Ramirez at $1M = $12M with one more spot to fill. Even if that is a guy like Minter making minimum, that's a $12.5M pen just for the six primary.

[Carp]

If I had to predict the April record for next year right now I would say 10-14 and then the team would bump along at .500 for a while before eventually finishing somewhere in the 75-78 win range. I'm basing that on what I think they will do so it might change if they diverge from their previous comments.

Well no, we weren't above .500 in the first half of 2015. We flirted with .500 but .500 is the best we got and we reached that on June 21. Then we sold most of our big league assets and Freeman missed a good chunk of time. Safe to say we could have won around 10 more games had we not traded away Uribe, Johnson, Wood, etc. and had Freeman not gotten hurt. Of course a 75ish win team isn't great either, but the point stands.


Inflation isn't going to change the fact we will most likely stick to low budget relievers like we did most of the 90's and 2000's. We aren't signing any high dollar relief FA's and it's unlikely any current players still here will be making over 2-3 million at most. At least half the pen will likely be making right around league minimum.


And regardless if they sign anyone to a 3 year deal, that is not likely to affect decisions for the 2019 season. A FO would clearly know that they have salaries expiring at the end of following season. No one would be so short sighted to let a 1 year contract affect the decision to sign a legitimate star to a 6 year deal, if it's a player they really wanted.

[GovClintonTyree]

It is a couple of years away and some (maybe most) of the FA's to be will sign extensions by then but who would be your #1 priority? I would go with Machado. I think he is the perfect combination of offense and defense that could anchor the team for a decade. He would continue a line of great and HOF Braves 3B.

Yes. Eddie Mathews, Chipper Jones, Adonis Garcia.

[thewupk]

Yes. Eddie Mathews, Chipper Jones, Adonis Garcia.

All high quality players