Bold prediction - pitching

[bravesguy]

I know all the talk is about who the two new SP will be. I think we all assume Tehran, Folty, SP, SP, Wisler will be the rotation. Depending on those two new SP, I like the looks of that. BUT, I think we are going to have a major step forward next year.

I believe Newcomb is the sleeper that will be out new #2 by the end of the year. I was looking at a quick stat line recently. I like to look at trends from prospects. Are they getting it? and something looked really good to me.

If you look at his season stats, then break down his last 12 starts (roughly half season), then break that down to his last 6 starts, you see a really nice trend in 3 areas.

Sean Newcome
Season ERA 3.86 140 IP 4 71 152 15.6 0.26 4.56 9.77
Last 12 ERA 4.02 60.4 IP 2 32 72 6.7 0.30 4.77 10.73
Last 6 ERA 2.11 34.2 IP 0 13 44 3.8 0.00 3.42 11.58

He has lowered his ERA from 4ish to 2ish while lowering his walks from 4.5ish to 3.5ish and rsising his Ks from 10is to 11.5ish.

WOW. People always say if he could command, he could pitch and it looks like the trend is in that direction.

I predict he starts in Gwinnett, comes to ATL in May / June and becomes our new #2 by end of year.

Tehran, Newcomb, Folty, SP, Wisler

[smootness]

I think Newcomb will start back in AA but has a chance to move quickly if he starts the year off well.

I agree his trends look good and that people who were disappointed in his year were either expecting too much or don't realize how good he was.

[UNCBlue012]

I think Wisler will be MUCH better. I'm thinking around 3.65 ERA or so with solid peripherals. I think Teheran takes a small step back, at least with his ERAP, but gets his 200 IP and AN ERA around 3.50-3.60. I also think Gant makes a larger impact than people think.

[Knucksie]

Too early to tell. Teheran becomes much more effective in 2nd spot if TOR and #3 are acquired. Agreed that Wisler should take a step up no matter what, if nothing else from having more experience.

[bravesguy]

My real thoughts are that Folty and Wisler have mental issues. Their stuff plays at the MLB level, but when they lose focus or get frustrated, they lose thier stuff and give up a lot of BBs and HRs.

Next year, their 3rd, I expect both to get the emotions much more in control. I expect both will look like MOR guys and we will be debating who is the #2.

A rotation of Tehran, Newcomb, Folty, Wisler, SP where all of the top 4 are pitching like #2 guys would be pretty awesome. Image all four in the ERA range of 3.2 - 3.6 with K rates near 9/9IP. We would not only compete for a playoff spot, we would win once we got there. It would look very much like the NY Mets of last year.

[Enscheff]

The Mets of last year? Seriously?

In what world are the guys you listed even remotely comparable to Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, and Matz?

I think we should all be happy if Teheran continues to be a 3+WAR #2, Folty takes a step forward, Wisler shows he can be a 4 ERA #4, and Newcomb has any success at the MLB level.

[Chico]

I'm a big Newcombe fan. We're very right handed in the upper levels and he's our only lefty. I think the plan is for him to be in the major league rotation at some point next year and for years to come.

It will be interesting to see how many lefties we bring in this offseason. We seem bare at the upper levels.

[bravesguy]

The Mets of last year? Seriously?

In what world are the guys you listed even remotely comparable to Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, and Matz?
.

Good point. They are a great group. last year they really showed up.

Syndergaard pitched 24 games (150 IP) to a 3.24 ERA. He had a good SO rate (10) and a good WHIP (1.047)
Matz pitched 6 games (35.2 IP) to a 2.27 ERA. A WHIP of 1.24.
deGrom and Harvey were awesome though with 30 (191 IP)and 29 games (189.5 IP) at great ERAs of 2.54 & 2.71.

You are right...maybe just a taste of what they could do.

[bravesguy]

But if you look at them this year, slightly different.


Noah Syndergaard 2.60 ERA in 30 starts over 183.2 IP and a WHIP of 1.149 and K rate of 10.7
Jacob deGrom 3.04 ERA in 24 starts over 148.0 IP with a WHIP of 1.203 and K rate of 8.7
Steven Matz 3.40 ERA in 132.1 IP with a WHIP of 1.209 and K rate of 8.8
Matt Harvey 4.86 ERA in 92.2 IP with a WHIP of 1.468 and K rate of 7.4

Now that could be SP, Teheran, Folty, Wisler

[Enscheff]

But if you look at them this year, slightly different.


Noah Syndergaard 2.60 ERA in 30 starts over 183.2 IP and a WHIP of 1.149 and K rate of 10.7
Jacob deGrom 3.04 ERA in 24 starts over 148.0 IP with a WHIP of 1.203 and K rate of 8.7
Steven Matz 3.40 ERA in 132.1 IP with a WHIP of 1.209 and K rate of 8.8
Matt Harvey 4.86 ERA in 92.2 IP with a WHIP of 1.468 and K rate of 7.4

Now that could be SP, Teheran, Folty, Wisler

Except you said "the Mets last year", not, "the injury plagued Mets this year".

So in your scenario the Braves acquire a SP at the level of Noah Syndergaard, and the rest of the rotation suffers from injury problems?

No team with the exception of a healthy Indians pitching staff can compete with the sheer young talent of the Mets. Both teams are showing the flaw in putting all your eggs in the pitching basket...pitchers get hurt. Cleveland was lucky enough to win despite the injuries, while the Mets weren't quite so lucky.

We all want the Braves to have a good rotation next year, but I think we need to keep our expectations within the realm of reason.

[Millwood1Hitter]

I guarantee that Bartolo Colon and Jake Peavy will be in the rotation next year.