TOR pitching in the system

[bravesguy]

Was thinking about which 2 SPs we will add and it made me think we need room for a prospect that has a chance to be a TOR guys (#1/#2). So with so many pitching prospects who do you think is going to be a TOR guy and when?

Whalen, no, 2017
Newcomb, YES, 2017
Sims, no, 2017

Povse, no, 2018
Weigel, no, 2018
Mader, no, 2018
Fried, YES, 2018

Allard, YES, 2019
Soroka, no, 2019
Touki, YES, 2019

Anderson, YES, 2020
Wentz, YES, 2020
Mueller, no, 2020

Wilson, no, 2021

So what I decided, is that in the next two seasons, we really only have one chance at a TOR guy. So if you assume Tehran & Folty have rotation spots, then you can add 2 2-3 year SPs and not interfere with any development. Once 2019 comes around, you need a couple open spots, but by then you could possibly trade one of Tehran, Folty, 2 new SPs.

Maybe Coppy is thinking longer term than I was thinking.

[mfree80]

Your crystal ball is much clearer than mine. I don't know who will surprise, but I believe someone that you are saying No to will turn out to be really good.

[nsacpi]

Your crystal ball is much clearer than mine. I don't know who will surprise, but I believe someone that you are saying No to will turn out to be really good.

Yup. Guys like Kluber, Arrieta and Keuchel were not that highly regarded coming up.

[bravesfanMatt]

Weigel, sims, soroka, Wilson and Muller all have stuff to be ToR. Plus Folty

[Oklahomabrave]

If Fried starts well in AA I think he finishes the season in Atl. I'd also add Weigel to maybe

[Chico]

I think a good #3 is important as well, so I look at it in waves of 3. That's partly why I think we'll get a #3 like an Odorizzi or Ervin Santana to team with with JT and Folty for the first wave. Also because our 2nd wave is our weakest. I'd look at my waves and see where I can trade from. Injuries will happen and pitchers will stick, so if you have 3 legit pitchers with each wave you should be ok. We'll usually have a veteran in the rotation as well.

2017-AAA
Wisler, Blair, Whalen, Gant, Mader
2018-AA
Newcombe, Fried, Weigel, Sims, Povse,
2019-High A
Allard, Soroka, Touki, Sanchez, Withrow
2020- Low A
Anderson, Wentz, Muller, Wilson, Harrington

[bravesfanMatt]

I think a good #3 is important as well, so I look at it in waves of 3. That's partly why I think we'll get a #3 like an Odorizzi or Ervin Santana to team with with JT and Folty for the first wave. Also because our 2nd wave is our weakest. I'd look at my waves and see where I can trade from. Injuries will happen and pitchers will stick, so if you have 3 legit pitchers with each wave you should be ok. We'll usually have a veteran in the rotation as well.

2017-AAA
Wisler, Blair, Whalen, Gant, Mader
2018-AA
Newcombe, Fried, Weigel, Sims, Povse,
2019-High A
Allard, Soroka, Touki, Sanchez, Withrow
2020- Low A
Anderson, Wentz, Muller, Wilson, Harrington

Next year is going to be so interesting watching guys like Whalen/Gant/Blair/Wisler/Folty develop...
Then there is so much talent in the minors that every day is going to be a treat to follow.

[bravesguy]

I think a good #3 is important as well,

2017-AAA
Wisler, Blair, Whalen, Gant, Mader
2018-AA
Newcombe, Fried, Weigel, Sims, Povse,
2019-High A
Allard, Soroka, Touki, Sanchez, Withrow
2020- Low A
Anderson, Wentz, Muller, Wilson, Harrington

This is why I think it is so important to think long term. You can't add 3 new pitchers each year. You may be able to add 1 each year and not screw up (or take too big of a reach), but if you think adding two will be necessary, then you expect your rotation to be weak.

Right now, I feel they have 2 guys Tehran / Folty. If you say you need 3, then they must add 1 more with 2 spots to see if you have another. Maybe you try Wisler, Blair, Whalen at the final two spots. Hopefully one will stick. Then the next year you have 1 spot, with possibly 3 options (Newcombe, Fired, Weigel) to compete for it. Good news if they do, problem if there is no spot to compete for (good problem, but still problem).

I think through the next 3-5 years, Coppy is trying to decide on 3-4 guys who stick long term. Try to compete along the way, but who sticks long term?

[Enscheff]

In my mind, the guys with true TOR potential (I'm going to say Teheran is currently a prototypical #2, and thus a TOR guy already) are:

Folty (now)
Newcomb (mid-2017)
Fried (2018)
Weigel (mid-2018)
Soroka (2019)
Touki (mid-2019)
Allard (2020)

Guys like Fried, Soroka and Allard are almost locks to be SPs in some capacity. The question with them will be health and how good they will ultimately be.

Guys like Newcomb, Touki and Weigel might never find enough control to be SPs at all, but they have the stuff to be high leverage relievers as a fall back plan.

The super young guys like Anderson, Wentz and Muller are simply too young with too little track record for me to have an opinion.

So considering that group of guys, the Braves will be lucky to break in one guy with true impact potential into the rotation per year over the next 4-5 years. Half of that list will fall away either due to performance or injury. Since I think the plan should be to trade a starter when they have 1-2 years of control remaining, the only exception being not to sell low if a guy is coming off injury, the Braves might just have enough arms coming through the system to keep the rotation filled with 3-4 home grown guys and 1-2 FA stop gaps on short contracts.

[GovClintonTyree]

I think a good #3 is important as well, so I look at it in waves of 3. That's partly why I think we'll get a #3 like an Odorizzi or Ervin Santana to team with with JT and Folty for the first wave. Also because our 2nd wave is our weakest. I'd look at my waves and see where I can trade from. Injuries will happen and pitchers will stick, so if you have 3 legit pitchers with each wave you should be ok. We'll usually have a veteran in the rotation as well.

2017-AAA
Wisler, Blair, Whalen, Gant, Mader
2018-AA
Newcombe, Fried, Weigel, Sims, Povse,
2019-High A
Allard, Soroka, Touki, Sanchez, Withrow
2020- Low A
Anderson, Wentz, Muller, Wilson, Harrington

I like your waves, but-

2nd wave? Newcomb, Fried, Weigel? Most like Newcomb a lot, Weigel was the org pitcher of the year and Fried might be the pick of the whole litter.

The weakest wave is the first one, I think.

[Chico]

I like your waves, but-

2nd wave? Newcomb, Fried, Weigel? Most like Newcomb a lot, Weigel was the org pitcher of the year and Fried might be the pick of the whole litter.

The weakest wave is the first one, I think.

I was referring to Wisler/Blair/Whalen as the 2nd wave behind Julio/Folty/?

[GovClintonTyree]

I was referring to Wisler/Blair/Whalen as the 2nd wave behind Julio/Folty/?

Ah. Then I concur.