2016-2017 Off-Season Thread

[zbhargrove]

mlbtraderumors predict the Braves to sign Jason Hammels, Matt Wieters, and RA Dickey (in their top 50 list).

This was posted literally like 4 posts up.

[clvclv]

If they don't find a viable trade option I believe they will sign Castro. All this Weiters stuff just seems to be speculation based on need and resources available.

Not to mention the fact that he's a "local guy" - a name "regular fans" would likely get more excited about than Castro.

I know a lot of people don't like it, but the Wieters situation sure smells a lot like Markakis. I begrudgingly understand that line of thinking (since they've considered those things before) - whether I agree with it is another discussion. That said, if they could get him for 3/$36 million, would it really be worth jumping off the ledge over? As it stands, Mac's going to cost that much over two years PLUS prospects until Cashman comes to his senses. Wieters is pretty well known to be a good clubhouse guy, and switch-hitting Catchers sure are nice to have if you can get them.

If you could get him for around that number WITHOUT surrendering any prospects or picks, I wouldn't be all that torn up about it. I'd personally prefer that over paying a premium for Ramos since he'll be pretty worthless within a year or two for a team that can't deploy him as a DH.

[Enscheff]

Not to mention the fact that he's a "local guy" - a name "regular fans" would likely get more excited about than Castro.

I know a lot of people don't like it, but the Wieters situation sure smells a lot like Markakis. I begrudgingly understand that line of thinking (since they've considered those things before) - whether I agree with it is another discussion. That said, if they could get him for 3/$36 million, would it really be worth jumping off the ledge over? As it stands, Mac's going to cost that much over two years PLUS prospects until Cashman comes to his senses. Wieters is pretty well known to be a good clubhouse guy, and switch-hitting Catchers sure are nice to have if you can get them.

If you could get him for around that number WITHOUT surrendering any prospects or picks, I wouldn't be all that torn up about it. I'd personally prefer that over paying a premium for Ramos since he'll be pretty worthless within a year or two for a team that can't deploy him as a DH.

You're right, 3/36 for Wieters wouldn't be the end of the world. It's not like the signing would scuttle the Braves chances at a WS title for the next 5 years or anything. Just like signing Castro for 2/15 isn't going to make the Braves any more likely to win a WS title in the next 5 years. At the end of the day we are discussing marginal players on a non-contending team.

My issue is with the decision making process signing Wieters would represent. It means the Braves are still behind the times in evaluating catcher value. It means they are still behind the times when valuing players and hunting out the best win/dollar ratio.

It's just like me using lineup optimization as a quick barometer for manager skill. It's about the process and being willing to assimilate information, reason through it, and act upon it in a logical manner. If a manager can't figure out that Adonis Garcia should not be batting 2nd, I don't need to know anything else about him to know the processes he uses to make all tactical decisions is flawed, even if he somehow still comes up with the correct decisions.

[Chico]

Wieters is terrible at every facet of the game. Folks act like he is some offensive force at catcher, but his OPS last year was .711 and his career OPS is .739. He hasn't been a 2 WAR player since 2012. He is one of the worst pitch framers in the game, which isn't even factored into his low WAR totals. Last year alone he was worth -7 framing runs, which is almost another lost win just from his poor receiving skills.

If the Braves pay $13M per year for that level of production I will have lost all faith in their ability to construct a contending MLB roster. All the data exists to make a competent decision, and giving Wieters that kind of money would prove they are either not capable to finding that data, or they are incapable of making sound decisions based upon that data.

Castro is lesser offensively, but is more than playable (for a catcher) vs RHers with a career .750 OPS against them. He is also consistently an elite pitch framer, and was as +12 runs last year. That is literally 20 runs better than Wieters, which is 2 wins just from framing. He will cost half as much as Wieters.

Wieters was a 2.6 WAR in 2013 according to FG. He only played 26 games in 2014 before he got hurt and only 75 games in 2015 after he returned. He had a 1.9 this year in his first full season in 3 years. I'd expect him to put up a low of 2 and around 2.5 in 2017. That's not bad for a switch hitting catcher.

Castro's OPS is .708 the last 3 years against righties and .661 overall. That Javy Lopez like random 2013 year throws off his career numbers. Usually with veterans you can average their last 3 full years and know what you're getting.

I'll give you the pitch framing as I don't know enough about the stats and their legitimacy to make a claim either way.

I'm not opposed to Castro vs Weiters depending on the price, but I'd rather look at the numbers objectively with no agenda.

The Wieters decision is going to come down to what our gusy from Baltimore report back to the Johns. If we sign him, then I'll assume they're making the claim he is a good rebound candidate and would work well with the pitchers they are trying to cultivate.

[Enscheff]

Wieters was a 2.6 WAR in 2013 according to FG. He only played 26 games in 2014 before he got hurt and only 75 games in 2015 after he returned. He had a 1.9 this year in his first full season in 3 years. I'd expect him to put up a low of 2 and around 2.5 in 2017. That's not bad for a switch hitting catcher.

Castro's OPS is .708 the last 3 years against righties and .661 overall. That Javy Lopez like random 2013 year throws off his career numbers. Usually with veterans you can average their last 3 full years and know what you're getting.

I'll give you the pitch framing as I don't know enough about the stats and their legitimacy to make a claim either way.

I'm not opposed to Castro vs Weiters depending on the price, but I'd rather look at the numbers objectively with no agenda.

The Wieters decision is going to come down to what our gusy from Baltimore report back to the Johns. If we sign him, then I'll assume they're making the claim he is a good rebound candidate and would work well with the pitchers they are trying to cultivate.

And what would my agenda be other than wanting the Braves to make the best possible roster decision, and use of resources? Am I Jason Castro's brother or agent, or I would benefit by the Braves signing him in some other way?

[WaitingFor2017]

Braves have discussed Chris Archer with Rays

[bravesfanMatt]

Braves have discussed Chris Archer with Rays

I am sure a lot of teams have talked to the Rays about Archer. The price would be steep.

[UNCBlue012]

I am sure a lot of teams have talked to the Rays about Archer. The price would be steep.

yeah, that's why I'm not excited. I'm sure we have -- but the cost would just be insane. If it's somehow affordable, yes please.

[bravesfanMatt]

yeah, that's why I'm not excited. I'm sure we have -- but the cost would just be insane. If it's somehow affordable, yes please.

teams closer to contending will out bid us and way over pay for Archer. Copi is probably more in the game just to make sure the price for pitching stays very high..

[UNCBlue012]

I'd be really happy with Longoria. I imagine his price is too steep for what we are going to trade off this year, but it's a great move.

[Heyward]

Morosi said the Rays may move Longo.

He'd be a great fit depending what we'd have to give up.

Archer too but given he's cost controlled at an extremely team friendly rate until 2019 or 2020 he would cost a chunk of the farm.

[clvclv]

And what would my agenda be other than wanting the Braves to make the best possible roster decision, and use of resources? Am I Jason Castro's brother or agent, or I would benefit by the Braves signing him in some other way?

To be fair, you have been pretty steadfastly against a Wieters signing since the day it was first suggested (a long time ago), and have been rather keen on Castro - you might've been the first person to bring his name up. Does everything have to turn into something personal with you?

FWIW, it's nice to hear Bowman say that he expects Castro and Hundley to be likelier targets at this point.

[clvclv]

Braves have discussed Chris Archer with Rays

Link???

[The Chosen One]

Don't want any part of Weiters.

[Heyward]

Meh Braves have money to spend doubt we get in the bidding war for Cespedes, Joey Bats, EE, and some of the closers as well.

Wieters isnt great but we could do worse.

I'd prefer Ramos but given his knee situation i'd assume he'll sign with an AL team or back with Washington.

[Heyward]

Link???

@jonmorosi
#Braves have spoken with the #Rays about Chris Archer, among other controllable starters, sources say. @MLB @MLBNetwork

[striker42]

Expect the Braves to be heavily rumored with every major player available by trade whether we've actually had discussions or not. The Braves have one of the deepest farm systems in the game, money enough to acquire an elite player, and the desire to compete this year. Teams wanting to sell a valuable player will pounce on that, leak that they've talked to the Braves, and try to leverage that into a higher price tag. It's the GM version of an agent saying they've been talking to the Yankees or Dodgers.

[UNCBlue012]

Expect the Braves to be heavily rumored with every major player available by trade whether we've actually had discussions or not. The Braves have one of the deepest farm systems in the game, money enough to acquire an elite player, and the desire to compete this year. Teams wanting to sell a valuable player will pounce on that, leak that they've talked to the Braves, and try to leverage that into a higher price tag. It's the GM version of an agent saying they've been talking to the Yankees or Dodgers.

This is not only 100% correct, it was well worded. Thank you sir.

[Heyward]

Braves farm system is deep enough to trade for Archer, just depends how expensive the package would be.

Albies/Swanson are probably off limits.

Guys like Soroka, Mallex, Newcomb etc maybe Inciarte would be in play

[chop2chip]

I'm not convinced Albies is off limits. He's a really great player, but we won't be able to leverage his talents in the most optimal way by sticking him at second and we all know he's not going to start at SS.

I would be far from stunned if he's traded this offseason.