The Trump Presidency

[Oklahomahawk]

And remember the one in front is Gary Johnston.

[sturg33]

More than 50 missiles launched tonight... well, we got what we wanted!

[Runnin]

Reality starting to dawn?

“We are seeing a relatively broad-based scaling back of the exuberant optimism we saw in many markets after the election,” said Libby Cantrill, head of public policy at bond giant Pimco. “This is in part a recognition that even though there is one-party control in Washington, real divisions remain within the Republican conference. But even more so, it is the understanding that tackling health care policy and tax reform in one year is ambitious under the best of circumstances.”

The skeptics now include Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street investment bank whose alumni, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn, are the driving forces behind the Trump administration’s push for sweeping tax reform.

Mnuchin has repeatedly pledged to get a big tax package to Trump’s desk by the August congressional recess. And he’s celebrated the market rally as evidence of confidence in the president’s ability to improve the economy.

But Goldman recently told clients to tamp down their expectations for tax reform, and stocks sensitive to tax reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation have reversed their post-election gains. “Our economists continue to expect corporate tax cuts late this year but few major reforms to the tax code,” Goldman said a recent research note.

[sturg33]

Reality starting to dawn?

“We are seeing a relatively broad-based scaling back of the exuberant optimism we saw in many markets after the election,” said Libby Cantrill, head of public policy at bond giant Pimco. “This is in part a recognition that even though there is one-party control in Washington, real divisions remain within the Republican conference. But even more so, it is the understanding that tackling health care policy and tax reform in one year is ambitious under the best of circumstances.”

The skeptics now include Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street investment bank whose alumni, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn, are the driving forces behind the Trump administration’s push for sweeping tax reform.

Mnuchin has repeatedly pledged to get a big tax package to Trump’s desk by the August congressional recess. And he’s celebrated the market rally as evidence of confidence in the president’s ability to improve the economy.

But Goldman recently told clients to tamp down their expectations for tax reform, and stocks sensitive to tax reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation have reversed their post-election gains. “Our economists continue to expect corporate tax cuts late this year but few major reforms to the tax code,” Goldman said a recent research note.

I thought you didn't believe there was any real optimism?

[Hawk]

STOCKHOLM (AP) — Swedish media say a truck has crashed into a department store in central Stockholm, injuring several people.

Swedish radio says Friday that three people have been killed in the crash and Swedish broadcaster SVT says shots have been fired.

Swedish police said say they have received calls about a person who has injured others driving a vehicle on the central Stockholm street of Drottninggatan.

[Hawk]

New York Times: "A small truck rammed into a department store ..."

[The Chosen One]

Lost in the shuffle here, that 98k jobs numbers report...

[Julio3000]

Lost in the shuffle here, that 98k jobs numbers report...

thethe is the jobs report guy, so I figured he'd be all over this.

[sturg33]

Lost in the shuffle here, that 98k jobs numbers report...

Yeah - surprising number because ADP reported a blowout number on Wednesday... so that disconnect is odd to me

[thethe]

Sweden sure is safe...

[Julio3000]

Yeah - surprising number because ADP reported a blowout number on Wednesday... so that disconnect is odd to me

Globalist Illuminati Deep State shenanigans, obviously.

[thethe]

Yeah - surprising number because ADP reported a blowout number on Wednesday... so that disconnect is odd to me

Makes little sense especially since adp has as much information on payroll figures as anyone.

[Julio3000]

Makes little sense especially since adp has as much information on payroll figures as anyone.

You guys are beautiful. <3 <3

[sturg33]

Globalist Illuminati Deep State shenanigans, obviously.

Nice one!

All I said was the number was surprising... not that it wasn't true.

You guys are sensitive

[sturg33]

Here you go, 57... let me know if you need me to explain the chart for you

[goldfly]

this idiot bragged about how fast and within his first 100 that he got a justice on the supreme court

[57Brave]

Here you go, 57... let me know if you need me to explain the chart for you

"Additionally, confidence surveys are part of what economists call “soft data” — or data based on survey responses — which is different from “hard data” like the jobs numbers and GDP reports which pull from data collected by government agencies. Since the election, soft data have rallied while hard data have been lagging in their rate of improvement."

This was my point -- pointing to something as arbitrary / subjective as "confidence" or "optimism" to justify Trumps first months just seems flimsy
Was the polling done at a Wal-Mart or cracker Barrel ? Whole Foods ?
College town vs rural outpost?
Inner city or suburb ?

Let's let this play out a little longer before we determine success or failure.
We'll see

[sturg33]

"Additionally, confidence surveys are part of what economists call “soft data” — or data based on survey responses — which is different from “hard data” like the jobs numbers and GDP reports which pull from data collected by government agencies. Since the election, soft data have rallied while hard data have been lagging in their rate of improvement."

This was my point -- pointing to something as arbitrary / subjective as "confidence" or "optimism" to justify Trumps first months just seems flimsy
Was the polling done at a Wal-Mart or cracker Barrel ? Whole Foods ?
College town vs rural outpost?
Inner city or suburb ?

Let's let this play out a little longer before we determine success or failure.
We'll see

So you like the polls that show Obamacare improving but not the ones that show business confidence.

I'm shocked, I tell ya.

[57Brave]

I'm not denying people are optimistic or have confidence -- there is just not "hard data" to support that claim. The Yahoo article says as much
With ACA there are actual real life numbers along with comparitive numbers of when it's popularity wasn't all that
People signing up, states expanding Medicare etc

In a year there may be numbers and "hard data" bearing out your claim --


I just think it presumptuous to take a victory lap 2 months in
Soft data to me is like W-L stats to define a pitcher. Or giving out World Series trophies based on Projected Runs

Or in a nuther time "Mission Accomplished"

[sturg33]

All we have said is that confidence is high... whether it should be or not is up for debate, but business owners and consumers prefer Trump rhetoric to Obama poles.

As I've said multiple times, Trump has to deliver. He hasn't done **** yet