The Trump Presidency

[Julio3000]

Which part?

I'm just asking you to show where Gillespie's adoption of the Trump agenda narrowed the race beyond where it otherwise had been. I'm not disputing it, per se, but I want to know what we're talking about.

[thethe]

Yes, that's pretty much exactly what Republican reps are saying to their big donors.

Yeah - That philosophy doesn't work from a sheer numbers prospective. Much easier to tell the masses that you will give them free stuff. You'll easily win elections while never actually improving their lives. Nice scheme.

[Hawk]

So, trying to follow you here, high turnout was because of a competitive race that resulted in a 9 percentage point D win, but that didn't reflect energy and grassroots engagement.

Higher than average turnouts are almost universally tied to races that are competitive and, generally, less to enthusiasm/interest.

If you want to claim all that 'energy' as Democratic, ok, but seems a bit disingenuous. That the Republicans thought they could even compete in Virginia, despite the changing demographics, says a lot to me. It also highlights some weaknesses that the party is still unable to address.

But you can take your 9 percentage points won entirely in population centers in Northern and Central Virginia and run a victory lap if it makes you feel that much better.

[Julio3000]

Yesterday was a referendum when the the new VA gov was supported by adds that stereotyped a whole swatch of people as racist hicks that want to kill Spanish and Muslim children? Very decent.

Decent, like Gillespie's ads linking Northam to MS-13...which were run by the Gillespie campaign, not by an outside group.

[Hawk]

$29 million in ad buys overall, $7 million in the last week.

In Virginia.

[Hawk]

I'm just asking you to show where Gillespie's adoption of the Trump agenda narrowed the race beyond where it otherwise had been. I'm not disputing it, per se, but I want to know what we're talking about.

http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/A...a-12333387.php

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local...=.f411efe652a5

[Julio3000]

Higher than average turnouts are almost universally tied to races that are competitive and, generally, less to enthusiasm/interest.

If you want to claim all that 'energy' as Democratic, ok, but seems a bit disingenuous. That the Republicans thought they could even compete in Virginia, despite the changing demographics, says a lot to me. It also highlights some weaknesses that the party is still unable to address.

But you can take your 9 percentage points won entirely in population centers in Northern and Central Virginia and run a victory lap if it makes you feel that much better.

Ok, sure. Population centers. Like, where people live. Yeah, I'll take that.

[Hawk]

Ok, sure. Population centers. Like, where people live. Yeah, I'll take that.

Because those population centers did Democrats so much good during the last presidential election.

[thethe]

Decent, like Gillespie's ads linking Northam to MS-13...which were run by the Gillespie campaign, not by an outside group.

Considering Northam supports actions that prevent apprehension of those thugs then I agree.

[Julio3000]

http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/A...a-12333387.php

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local...=.f411efe652a5

I was hoping for numbers and not Steve Bannon quotes. But, given the thrust of that article, I'm sure Virginia Democrats would love to be thrown into the Stewart vs Kaine briar patch. And demagoguing MS-13 and NFL protesters bought Gillespie what, exactly?

When did the adoption of the Trump message narrow the race? How wide was the margin if Northam won by 9%? Seems like you're reaching pretty hard.

[Julio3000]

Because those population centers did Democrats so much good during the last presidential election.

Fair enough. Long term, though? I'd bet on that vs Breitbart snake oil.

[DaneHill]

Trump just tweeted this congratulations to himself on last year's election. Maybe he's started trolling himself. Otherwise, this is why Republicans are going to continue losing big for the foreseeable future with Trump in charge. He simply cannot admit he's wrong and will continue to act the same and likely worse as the months and years go by, alienating more and more voters. There's no humbling him, everything is the Trump way or a lie:

[Hawk]

I was hoping for numbers and not Steve Bannon quotes. But, given the thrust of that article, I'm sure Virginia Democrats would love to be thrown into the Stewart vs Kaine briar patch. And demagoguing MS-13 and NFL protesters bought Gillespie what, exactly?

When did the adoption of the Trump message narrow the race? How wide was the margin if Northam won by 9%? Seems like you're reaching pretty hard.

I could certainly link some more articles to suit your finicky taste in quotes, but I was just trying to point you in the general direction of a sentiment that I've seen expressed in multiple publications over the course of the past few weeks.

Let's start here:

Do you dispute that Gillespie started playing Trumpian identity politics down the stretch? I think the time period is kinda irrelevant to the overriding point, but let's just say, for the sake of quantification, around 1 month.

Do you dispute that the race tightened when Gillespie changed his tactics?

Or do you believe that neither of these things happened?

I can give you numbers, or we can just look at the trend graph. Identifying what produced those changes is the fun part, not crunching numbers.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls...tham-6197.html

[57Brave]

This so reminds me of people who argued we would have won Viet Nam if only the civilians allowed the military to ----- blah blah blah

(D) would have won 2010 mid terms if more people voted (D). They didn't vote (D) for reasons XY&Z.

Suck it up and admit y'all got your Trump apologist asses handed to you. For reasons X,Y and Z
...........................

Had the Braves not signed Bartolo Colon or relied on Jim Johnson ...

[Hawk]

Fair enough. Long term, though? I'd bet on that vs Breitbart snake oil.

Psh, Breibart.

How long term are you talking? I see the polarization here as generational.

And, honestly, I think that this economic boom is actually going to push way more (disenchanted) people out of economic population centers than it brings in.

[Julio3000]

I could certainly link some more articles to suit your finicky taste in quotes, but I was just trying to point you in the general direction of a sentiment that I've seen expressed in multiple publications over the course of the past few weeks.

Let's start here:

Do you dispute that Gillespie started playing Trumpian identity politics down the stretch? I think the time period is kinda irrelevant to the overriding point, but let's just say, for the sake of quantification, around 1 month.

Do you dispute that the race tightened when Gillespie changed his tactics?

Or do you believe that neither of these things happened?

I can give you numbers, or we can just look at the trend graph. Identifying what produced those changes is the fun part, not crunching numbers.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls...tham-6197.html

The poll average reflects a late tightening, and that's as attributable to the volatility of state polling as anything, but there it is. And...the final margin?

[Hawk]

The poll average reflects a late tightening, and that's as attributable to the volatility of state polling as anything, but there it is. And...the final margin?

I'm not talking about the late tightening, which, as noted, is seen in every election poll since ever.

I'm talking about the two early-mid October spikes.

[57Brave]

1st time Black mayors elected in GA last night #gapol:

Craig Newton of Norcross

Jonathan McCollar of Statesboro

Mary Parham Copeland of Milledgeville

Nancy Dennard of Quitman

Booker Gainor of Cairo

[Julio3000]

I'm not talking about the late tightening, which, as noted, is seen in every election poll since ever.

I'm talking about the two early-mid October spikes.

Ok. Gillespie's MS-13 ads, which started to run in late September? What exactly are we talking about? And, again, the final margin....

You're saying "psh, Breitbart," but posting an article primarily sourced to Steve Bannon as evidence

[Julio3000]

1st time Black mayors elected in GA last night #gapol:

Craig Newton of Norcross

Jonathan McCollar of Statesboro

Mary Parham Copeland of Milledgeville

Nancy Dennard of Quitman

Booker Gainor of Cairo

Population centers don't matter.