Silver didn't call anything in November, he just kept regurgitating an aggregate analysis of national polls telling us that Clinton had a 90%+ chance of winning and that Trump had a (minute) path within the margin of error.
Silver has no concept of sociopolitics. He's just a number-cruncher.
As for the HRC theories: I start with diversity in Cobb and fall back to how well Clinton generally performed in 'metro' demographics.
Last edited by Hawk; 04-12-2017 at 08:58 AM.
Separating the county from the Congressional district ?
The best way to stop a bad guy with a gun is to make sure he doesn’t get a gun.
Yes. You asked how she won Cobb in the general (only by ~8K out of ~360K cast, but that's neither here nor there).Originally Posted by 57Brave
57Brave (04-12-2017)
Three stories from the last 24 hours:
Per AP, two payments to Paul Manafort from the Ukrainian pro-Russian political party for which he worked, noted in the so-called “Black Ledger,” were confirmed to have been made, originating from companies in Belize.
Per WaPo, former campaign foreign policy advisor and current un-person Carter Page was the subject of FISA surveillance beginning last summer. Original warrant was for 90 days, more than one renewal was granted.
“The government’s application for the surveillance order targeting Page included a lengthy declaration that laid out investigators’ basis for believing that Page was an agent of the Russian government and knowingly engaged in clandestine intelligence activities on behalf of Moscow, officials said.”
In the least surprising bit of news, Devin Nunes’s WH-provided surveillance clams aren’t holding up to wider scrutiny.
“After a review of the same intelligence reports brought to light by House Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes, both Republican and Democratic lawmakers and aides have so far found no evidence that Obama administration officials did anything unusual or illegal, multiple sources in both parties tell CNN.”
Not sure what a special election in the middle of butt bleep Kansas has to do with being a better indicator for nationwide consumer confidence than a scientific survey (not just interviewing at Cracker Barrell), but I'll take the bait.
Democrats should feel good about this, but it's also not that telling? Mid-term elections is when the real mandate on Trump as a politician will happen and the political landscape isn't too friendly to Democrats.
I think the Kansas election was generally good news for Democrats, but the midterms are 18 months away and who knows what may have happened to move the needle by then.
Just a trend indicator.
Learned this from a West Wing episode written by political operatives. Then read further to learn how pollsters use the info
No more or less.
It was garnered from last election Trump worked the Cracker Barrel voters and Clinton the Whole Foods voters.
Personally, I like CB breakfasts more than the overpriced products in Whole Foods.
No hidden agenda there
Tillerson, meaning Trumb, getting schooled on professionalism in Russia by Putin. This is exactly why having this nut in the Oval Office is so dangerous. His connections to Russia are sure to end in a petty catfight, same as every other relationship he goes into.
Are trump and putin still best friends?
Why wouldn't they be? Think to the Andy Kaufman/Jerry Lawler feud. Both made a lot of money pretending to hate each other.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
Lol.
I think Tillerson is the best of this administration
Yup. What the left doesn't seem to realize is that you can be trained for world politics in areas outside of government.
He has ditched the press. Meaning your opinion is based on what his PR people want you to think.
He has been Sec of State for 2 months, he has no record and we have no perspectivr of his accomplishments or short comings.
Why do y'all constantly fall for that "Mission Accomplished" moment ?
The 'press' is too busy in Washington compulsively masturbating over verbal flubs.
Is this same sentiment applicable to the President?
sturg33 (04-13-2017)
Trump has a record
......................................
Apparently accountability in Trump World applies only to poor people
The Hill:
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson reportedly abandoned his his press pool for an unscheduled meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
According to several reporters covering Tillerson's Russia visit, the top U.S. diplomat did not bring his press pool to the Kremlin while meeting with Putin on Wednesday.
Moscow on Monday had said that Tillerson would not be meeting with the Russian president during his first official visit to the country.
The meeting comes amid growing tensions between U.S. and Russia over the ongoing conflict in Syria.
Russia condemned the U.S. missile strikes against a Syrian airfield last Thursday, accusing Washington of violating international law.
The U.S., however, has urged Russia to stop supporting Syrian President Bashar Assad, who is believed to be behind the chemical weapons attack against Syrian civilians last week.
The State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment
..............................
http://www.vox.com/conversations/201...ate-department
Last edited by 57Brave; 04-13-2017 at 08:18 AM.
The best way to stop a bad guy with a gun is to make sure he doesn’t get a gun.
http://nypost.com/2017/04/12/russian...r-bad-manners/
NBC News correspondent Andrea Mitchell was scolded for her 'manners' by Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov after she shouted a question during his meeting with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.
Before anyone could be seated at the table, Mitchell started shouting: 'Mr. Secretary, the Russians don't believe the intelligence. How confident are you, Mr. Secretary—?'
But before the 70-year-old journalist could finish her sentence, Lavrov quickly interjected.
This is also not her first incident with Tillerson, as a little over a month ago the veteran journalist was kicked out of a State Department press conference for repeatedly shouting questions at Tillerson.
Mitchell was escorted out of a meeting between Tillerson and the foreign minister for Ukraine on March 7 due to how she reportedly behaved during a press conference for the pair.
That simpleton (57) is still trying to formulate a response that has to be an ironclad negative Republican slight. Heaven forbid in HRC track record as a Sec of State which was by most Democrats feel, ineffective.
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