Quote Originally Posted by smootness View Post
I get the numbers, but I don't see them as the definitive values you do. If either Giolito or Lopez hits, they will provide way more value than Eaton.

And even in light of payroll limitations, I value talent over monetary savings, especially for a team like the Nats. Eaton is a good to very good player, but I believe Giolito/Lopez is a significant overpay.
Yea that's the whole idea behind calculating the value of a prospect. Either pitcher could boom or bust, and the average of those potential outcomes is what makes them worth what they are worth.

The fact you think they will be better than the historic average doesn't mean anything. All top prospects that bust were thought by many people to be great...that's why they were top prospects.